The 2020's: A decade of Inflation

[BlueKelah]

Allow me to summarize again....

https://mobile.twitter.com/PriapusIQ/sta...6039573508

Man that is really ROFL Farnee man. Made my day.

[CY09]

I did the maths in another thread. There is just too much liquidity out there now. If there is a need to balance liquidity/interest to tamper inflation. The current rate has to be at 8%.

If policymakers are able to drain liquidity fast enough, interest rates can be lower. Liquidity and Interest are inversely related. Any divergence will mean 'higher than tolerated' inflation (or deflation)

[Behappyalways]

Inflation over the last three months has averaged 2%, at an annualized rate. That’s down from 11% in the prior quarter.

Statement by President Joe Biden on the September Consumer Price Index Report
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room...ex-report/

[Behappyalways]

The Era Of Cheap Food And Cheap Gasoline Is Over
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finan...oline-over

[Behappyalways]

Fed's Inflation 'Nowcast' Tracker Suggests Price Pressures Increasing
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-i...increasing

[weijian]

Technology has always been deflationary and will not change. But maybe the extent of its "deflationary prowess" has gone a bit far and hence some mean reversion at play.

Apple hikes music and TV+ prices in first increases since launch

The company is not alone in boosting streaming prices. The cost of Walt Disney’s flagship Disney+ service will rise 38 per cent to US$11 later this year. The company is introducing a new ad-supported tier then that will be priced the same as its earlier offering at US$8 a month. This follows a 43 per cent price increase to US$10 a month for its ESPN+ streaming service in August.

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/ap...nce-launch

[specuvestor]

Rents nationally increased 7.5% in September from a year earlier, above pre-pandemic levels, but down from a peak jump of nearly 18% at the start of the year, when vacancies also were lower, according to Apartment List. Preliminary October data show a dropoff that’s faster than the typical seasonal decline and would be the steepest in month-over-month data dating back to 2017, said Igor Popov, the listing platform’s chief economist.

A cooldown has yet to show up in the consumer price index that’s closely watched by the Fed, about a third of which is tied to the cost of shelter. That measure of rents rose at a record annual pace last month. But it will be slow to reflect more recent shifts because the index tracks what renters are paying as well as the costs homeowners would incur if they had to rent back their homes — rather than new leases that are more apt to change.
These indicators lag the actual market. It might be six or nine months before the more recent slowdown is reflected in the CPI, said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. 
But renters are feeling the strain of inflation now. Unlike homeowners who can fix mortgages for 30 years, they can face rent increases every year, or sooner if they’re on a month-to-month lease. And they’re more likely to have less stable jobs and incomes. -Bloomberg

[weijian]

This is reminiscent of the post WW2 era where everyone wanted a better experience/life after years of war. Our equivalent, post covid, is everyone wanting to spend again after 2 years of lock down and savings

Everyone Is Predicting a Recession But No One is Acting Like It (Yet)

But everywhere I go — restaurants, bars, theme parks, apple orchards, airports, etc. — places are packed with people spending money.

Everyone seems to know a recession is likely coming.

But everyone continues to spend money in part because they were able to build up excess savings one way or another throughout the pandemic.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/10...ke-it-yet/

[CY09]

I dare to spend money as well despite my salary increase being lower than inflation this year and my stock portfoilo being badly hit.

This is because I know when a recession comes, worldwide government agencies will be handing me money and QE will restart (aka the Fed will throw in the kitchen sink). As long as policymakers act this way, we know recessions will be shortlived and not become a great depression

[Porkbelly]

I dare to spend money as well despite my salary increase being lower than inflation this year and my stock portfoilo being badly hit.

This is because I know when a recession comes, worldwide government agencies will be handing me money and QE will restart (aka the Fed will throw in the kitchen sink). As long as policymakers act this way, we know recessions will be shortlived and not become a great depression

I agree... signs & symptoms do not match any of the forecasts. And if they finally do, yes, the policy makers will open up the taps again... the alternative is to have the countries forced into war mode to survive.