Universal Basic Income

[BigFatWhale]

Is Universal Basic Income Viable in Singapore?

The concept of Basic Universal Income could be traced back to 1796 proposed by Thomas Paine in the United States. Ever since then, there have been actual experiments in Alaska, Africa, Iran, Netherlands, Finland, etc. Most are implemented on a small scale but Alaska and Iran are on a nationwide level, they are still running the scheme.

Alaska payout is around $1000-$2000 per year to all citizens since 1982. The amount depends on the oil revenues of their state-owned investment fund. However, the population of Alaska is just 730,000 people which makes financing it more manageable.

As for Iran, there is a population of 84 million people, the universal basic income has been implemented since 2011. The amount equates to US$40 per person per month which sums up to US$480 per year.

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[Wildreamz]

I think UBI is one of the most obvious (that it will happen), yet spectacular (in terms of impact) and controversial trend that most people disagree with.

Most of my long-term investment thesis and decisions, are based upon the base assumption that we are heading towards global UBI in a shorter than expected time-frame.

[BigFatWhale]

I think UBI is one of the most obvious (that it will happen), yet spectacular (in terms of impact) and controversial trend that most people disagree with.

Most of my long-term investment thesis and decisions, are based upon the base assumption that we are heading towards global UBI in a shorter than expected time-frame.

What are some of the thesis? Like Meituan for their delivery drones?

[Wildreamz]

..
What are some of the thesis? Like Meituan for their delivery drones?

Just basing my models of the future of some companies on the assumption of eventual UBI (and make sure it is not disrupted by it, and may even benefit from it).

Looking at my portfolio and think along them themes of UBI directly, I think some beneficiaries are companies that continue to provide value to a market with increasing free-time and spending power.

Some creator economy companies (e.g. Roblox, Google, Airbnb, Shopify, Square) comes to mind. With more free-time and spending power, I think people will continue to spend more on high-margin products (e.g. luxury, branded names, tech gadget etc.) and experiences (digital or otherwise).

Some companies I own that might play a critical role to enable more automation also probably stand to benefit (e.g. Tesla, Google, Hubspot, The Trade Desk).

I used to be much more bullish on their Chinese counterparts. But recent, more hard-handed approach by the Chinese government at regulations give me pause. I have been reducing my exposure to China over the years, and currently have 0 exposure until current regulatory climate improves (you can reference Alibaba thread where this is much discussed).

[weijian]

This answer to the question of the thread title, is political, rather than economic. Example, if there isn't minimal wage in Singapore, how can there be UBI?

That said, we are an investing forum. It is surely inevitable that talking about UBI in Singapore in such a specific context, will eventually go towards the political direction.

[BigFatWhale]

..
What are some of the thesis? Like Meituan for their delivery drones?

Just basing my models of the future of some companies on the assumption of eventual UBI (and make sure it is not disrupted by it, and may even benefit from it).

Looking at my portfolio and think along them themes of UBI directly, I think some beneficiaries are companies that continue to provide value to a market with increasing free-time and spending power.

Some creator economy companies (e.g. Roblox, Google, Airbnb, Shopify, Square) comes to mind. With more free-time and spending power, I think people will continue to spend more on high-margin products (e.g. luxury, branded names, tech gadget etc.) and experiences (digital or otherwise).

Some companies I own that might play a critical role to enable more automation also probably stand to benefit (e.g. Tesla, Google, Hubspot, The Trade Desk).

I used to be much more bullish on their Chinese counterparts. But recent, more hard-handed approach by the Chinese government at regulations give me pause. I have been reducing my exposure to China over the years, and currently have 0 exposure until current regulatory climate improves (you can reference Alibaba thread where this is much discussed).

Thks for your inputs. 

Interesting stocks in your list but guess UBI will just provide the basic necessities needs .

Robotics companies like  Fanuc might be a good play for the future. Drone makers like DJI would be interesting if they choose to list.

China stocks have been on carnage but stick w best of class like Tencent n Ping An could be a good strategy at the right price. Baba seems to be still not out of the woods yet.

[BigFatWhale]

This answer to the question of the thread title, is political, rather than economic. Example, if there isn't minimal wage in Singapore, how can there be UBI?

That said, we are an investing forum. It is surely inevitable that talking about UBI in Singapore in such a specific context, will eventually go towards the political direction.

Hi Weijian,

UBI is something feasible in the future given the huge disruption of AI.

If UBI is to be on the cards, it will change the whole economic landscape.

There is no intention to go political with this thread. But we are just using Singapore as a testbed to see if the finances will work out on a grand scale.

UBI title based on the main thread heading is universal n applicable to all nations.

Nonetheless, if you think this thread is out of context for the forum. I am perfectly fine if you just delete it.

Happy Sunday Ahead!

[weijian]

Is Universal Basic Income Viable in Singapore?

Hi TheBigFatWhale,
If we were to take the above question at face value, then yes, I will judge that it wouldn't be appropriate for the forum.

But I can see that the discussion is going towards discussion about the economic trends and companies that enable this. There is a lot that folks can contribute and learn from each other.

As such, there is no issue to continue on.

My message here will also serve as a gentle reminder to all VBs to keep the discussion economical over here.

Moderator

[karlmarx]

UBI will only be demanded by a significant portion of a country's citizens when they do not have (good) jobs. Which is why most governments (especially SG) are obsessive about job creation.

Technology has been feared to displace human jobs since the industrial revolution. But new jobs are always created. And in a world of AI and autonomous driving/delivery, I believe that new jobs will still be created. Which is why the SG government is so focused with inculcating the attitude of life long retraining in its workforce.

The possibility of permanent mass unemployment caused by tech has never crossed my mind.

Singapore has actually enforced minimum wage on several job-types, and is increasingly introducing minimum wage into more job-types. So we do have minimum wage. It is called Progressive Wage Model. And it will be another source of inflation until at least 2030. The economic rationale would be to leave the market on its own to decide wages. But increasing inequality in the past decade has finally forced the government to do something which it has always tried to shy away from (minimum-wage-like policies like Workfare existed for some time). Low-income Singaporeans do not live in cage homes like those in HK, but there is a significant number of them subsisting on a gross salary of around $1,500 a month. In the larger scheme of things, minimum wage is probably the right thing to do to maintain harmony (and the businesses that rely on such harmony), at the cost of rising prices.