'Big Short' investor Michael Burry warns of a massive bubble and epic market crash

[Behappyalways]

Felix Zulauf: What I Think Will Happen in 2023
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lbIS6rmeKRM

[Dosser]

Meanwhile the yield curve in Singapore gets more and more inverted. 1 month now at  4.684 % while the 30 year is at 2.686%. The market seems to imply that high interest rates are a short term phenomenon and that rates and inflation are going to fall rapidly over the next two years as Singapore (and the world) descend into a deep recession, with the central banks then loosening policy and expanding money supply to counteract the downturn.

[weijian]

The seeds of success are always planted in the current failures and vice versa. A reminder from NY real estate market (curse of the skyscraper?) and how this rhymes all across the spectrum.

The End of Blitzscaling

Construction on the World Trade Center began in 1968, but wasn’t delivered until 1971. The trouble was that when it did, New York barely needed a 60-story office building, let alone two 100-story towers. The city was struggling financially, people and businesses were leaving for the suburbs, and the office market was already oversupplied. Many at the time characterized the Twin Towers as “pure speculation.” As a result, office vacancies in Manhattan soared, tax revenues plummeted, and the city even flirted with bankruptcy.

Yet, as is so often the case with New York, this short-term pain planted the seeds for future gains. The glut in office supply and rise in commodity prices caused office development to grind to a halt in the 1970s. This meant that while buildings like the Twin Towers suffered short-term leasing and cash flow issues, their future potential value increased due to the evaporation in plans for future supply.

https://collabfund.com/blog/the-end-of-blitzscaling/

[Behappyalways]

Tesla.
Stage 4.

Apple is also probably in stage 4.

$TSLA updated chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/mikepsilva/st...4515443712

[Behappyalways]

Tesla
http://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.p...&start=200

Tesla.
Stage 4.

Apple is also probably in stage 4.

$TSLA updated chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/mikepsilva/st...4515443712

[Behappyalways]

Earlier in the year forecast...

21 Dec 2022 S&P 3878.44

Your 2022 S&P 500 forecasts:
https://mobile.twitter.com/FerroTV/statu...0396485632

[weijian]

Earlier in the year forecast...

21 Dec 2022 S&P 3878.44

Your 2022 S&P 500 forecasts:
https://mobile.twitter.com/FerroTV/statu...0396485632

This works on the upside too. In early 2020, probably no one would expect a 18.4% gain for the S&P500 by year end, when covid-19 was rearing its head. 

In March this year, the Fed forecasted rates to be 2 to 2.5% by Dec 2022. Actual rates turn out to be almost double at 4.5%. But kudos to them for admitting they were wrong and doing the necessary to correct them.

(disclosure: I am agnostic towards the Fed and their actions)

[Behappyalways]

A good watch

展望2023經濟發展前景！通膨可能解決嗎？陳鳳馨：能否春暖花開的兩個關鍵是...【Yahoo TV #風向龍鳳配 】
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=djNvlG93LDw

[Behappyalways]

Watch apple (X3)

Apple seems to be on a breakdown like Tesla....First slowly then suddenly.

As Apple is an big component stock, it will have an effect on the indices...

1st half of 2023 will probably be bad for stocks. As for 2nd half, my guess is that it really depends on the Fed. Will they blink as many analysts believe??? If Fed blinks, then we might see a bottom in 1st half...

A lot of counters and indices are stage 3. Just a little more push then it will come crashing down

Samudera Shipping is also near the cliffs.

As for the glove companies, my guess is that they have come down a lot and they are in stage 1. But do remember a company can be a stage 1 for a pretty long time...maybe years...nothing happening as it consolidate and wears off investors...

One interesting sector is gold and gold miners. They seems to be on a verge of a big break out to higher. I still think the big breakout will happen when Fed stops hiking so...not now although I am vested in some gold miners listed in US....will start to invest more this year


My guess is that 1st half 2023. might be the final finale. A lot of pain. More painful then 2022. So be prepared for the pain...


A good watch. I feel that what he said is better than most analysts. Ukraine conflict might have a solution in 2nd half as US president candidates prepares for 2024 election and US citizens are shifting to ending the war...

'23.01.02【豐富│財經起床號】易術大師李咸陽談「易卦看 2023 全球財經趨勢」
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OFyawjTLXZg

[weijian]

Watch apple (X3)

Apple seems to be on a breakdown like Tesla....First slowly then suddenly.

As Apple is an big component stock, it will have an effect on the indices...

1st half of 2023 will probably be bad for stocks. As for 2nd half, my guess is that it really depends on the Fed. Will they blink as many analysts believe??? If Fed blinks, then we might see a bottom in 1st half...

A lot of counters and indices are stage 3. Just a little more push then it will come crashing down

Samudera Shipping is also near the cliffs.

As for the glove companies, my guess is that they have come down a lot and they are in stage 1. But do remember a company can be a stage 1 for a pretty long time...maybe years...nothing happening as it consolidate and wears off investors...

One interesting sector is gold and gold miners. They seems to be on a verge of a big break out to higher. I still think the big breakout will happen when Fed stops hiking so...not now although I am vested in some gold miners listed in US....will start to invest more this year


My guess is that 1st half 2023. might be the final finale. A lot of pain. More painful then 2022. So be prepared for the pain...


A good watch. I feel that what he said is better than most analysts. Ukraine conflict might have a solution in 2nd half as US president candidates prepares for 2024 election and US citizens are shifting to ending the war...

'23.01.02【豐富│財經起床號】易術大師李咸陽談「易卦看 2023 全球財經趨勢」
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OFyawjTLXZg

Hi Behappyalways,
I think we can attempt to have future expectations based on current market mood. But I think it might be a tad too far to attempt to predict the future, ie. having very specific timeframes for specific things to happen.

Howard Marks nails it when he says that we can't know for sure where the market is going, but we can know how the current market is. The current market is generally pessimistic and most are "Fed watching". Does this mean that the general crowd is right? Probably. Does this mean that the general crowd is wrong? Probably.

It might actually be wiser to be ignorant.