Best World

[Boon]

2Q2017 Results (Released on 07-Aug-2017)
 
Group Revenue (SGD Million) 
1Q2014 =  12.802     (= 17% of FY2014 Revenue)
2Q2014 =  18.278     (= 24% of FY2014 Revenue)
3Q2014 =  19.229     (= 26% of FY2014 Revenue) 
4Q2014 =  24.957     (= 33% of FY2014 Revenue) 
(FY2014  =  75.226)
1Q2015 =  13.507     (= 13% of FY2015 Revenue)
2Q2015 =  21.029     (= 21% of FY2015 Revenue)
3Q2015 =  26.191     (= 26% of FY2015 Revenue) 
4Q2015 =  40.945     (= 40% of FY2015 Revenue) 
(FY2015 = 101.672)
1Q2016 =  35.226     (= 18% 0f FY2016 Revenue)     
2Q2016 =  51.568     (= 26% 0f FY2016 Revenue)  ; (1H2016=86.794)   
3Q2016 =  52.253     (= 26% 0f FY2016 Revenue)     
4Q2016 =  61.817     (= 30% 0f FY2016 Revenue)  
(FY2016 = 200.784)   
1Q2017 =  44.744         
2Q2017 =  55.283   => +  7.2% vs 2Q2016
1H2017 =100.027  => +15.2% vs 1H2016  => new 1H record
 
2 x 1H2017 Revenue ~ FY2016 Revenue
 
GPM / NPM
1Q2014 = 74.0% / 0.9%
2Q2014 = 69.8% / 4.1%
3Q2014 = 75.5% / 5.8%
4Q2014 = 77.1% / 8.2%
(FY2014  = 74.4% / 5.4%)
1Q2015 = 74.9% / 1.8%
2Q2015 = 75.8% /10.0%
3Q2015 = 77.1% /15.4%
4Q2015 = 74.8% / 9.1%
(FY2015 =  75.6% / 9.9%)
1Q2016 = 75.5% /16.9%
2Q2016 = 74.8% /14.3%
3Q2016 = 71.6% /17.1%
4Q2016 = 71.9% / 19.9%
(FY2017 = 73.2% / 17.2%)
1Q2017 = 70.9% / 21.7%
2Q2017 = 70.8% / 21.6%    ( - 4.0 pp / +7.3 pp )
1H2017 = 70.9% / 21.7%    ( - 4.2 pp / +6.3 pp)
 
GPM dipped but still managed to stay above the 70% mark. 
NPM improved driven by higher mix of Export sales to China.
 
NPAT / EPS 
1Q2014 = 0.121 m / 0.06 cent
2Q2014 = 0.758 m / 0.34 cent
3Q2014 = 1.123 m / 0.51 cent 
4Q2014 = 2.052 m / 0.93 cent 
(FY2014  = 4.054 m / 1.86 cent)
1Q2015 = 0.249 m / 0.11 cent
2Q2015 = 2.106 m / 0.96 cent
3Q2015 = 4.035 m / 1.83 cent
4Q2015 = 3.714 m / 1.69 cent  
(FY2015 =10.104 m / 4.59 cent)
1Q2016 = 5.963 m / 2.71 cent
2Q2016 = 7.369 m / 3.35 cent 
3Q2016 = 8.933 m / 4.06 cent (pre-bonus) or 3.25 cent (post-bonus) 
4Q2016 = 12.304 m / 5.59 cent (pre-bonus) or 4.47 cent (post-bonus)
(FY2016 = 34.569 m / 15.70 cent (pre-bonus) or 12.56 cent (post-bonus))
1Q2017 = 9.723 m /  4.41 cent (pre-bonus) or 3.53 cent (post-bonus)
2Q2017 = 11.965 m / 2.17 cent (post –bonus; post-split)
1H2017 = 21.688 m / 3.94 cent (post –bonus; post-split)

1H2017 NPAT/ EPS (Adjusted) at record high – driven both by higher China Export sales & NPM
 
Taiwan Revenue (SGD million)
1Q2014 =   2.418   (= 11% of FY2014 Revenue)
2Q2014 =   4.157   (= 18% of FY2014 Revenue)
3Q2014 =   4.940   (= 22% of FY2014 Revenue) 
4Q2014 = 11.196   (= 49% of FY2014 Revenue) 
(FY2014  = 22.711)
1Q2015 = 4.465     (=   8% of FY2015 Revenue)
2Q2015 = 10.244   (= 18% of FY2015 Revenue)
3Q2015 = 14.125   (=  25% of FY2015 Revenue) 
4Q2015 = 27.559   (=  49% of FY2015 Revenue) 
(FY2015  = 56.393)
1Q2016 = 20.221   (= 16% of FY2016 Revenue)
2Q2016 = 35.056   (= 29% of FY2016 Revenue) ; (1H2016 = 55.277)
3Q2016 = 27.602   (= 22% of FY2016 Revenue)
4Q2016 = 40.048   (= 33% of FY2016 Revenue)
(FY2016) = 122.959
1Q2017 = 18.685
2Q2017 = 23.115   => Declined 34.1% vs 2Q2017
1H2017 = 41.800   => Declined 24.4% vs 1H2016
 
Signs of FURTHER slowing sales in Taiwan remains a big concern.

China Revenue (SGD million) = Export Revenue + MW Revenue:
1Q2014 =  2.195 
2Q2014 =  3.296 
3Q2014 =  3.117 
4Q2014 =  4.372  
(FY2014  =12.980) (Export=5.912 ; MW= 7.068)
1Q2015 =  3.088 
2Q2015 =  5.366
3Q2015 =  4.805
4Q2015 =  6.512  
(FY2015  =19.771) (Export = 13.077 ; MW = 6.694)
1Q2016 =10.566  (Export = 9.609 ; MW= 0.957)
2Q2016 =11.813  (Export =10.777 ;MW =1.036) ; (1H2016 Export = 20.386 ; MW=1.993)
3Q2016 =19.641  (Export =18.563 ; MW=1.078) 
4Q2016 =15.841  (Export =14.249 ; MW =1.592)
(FY2016 = 57.861) (Export= 53.198 ; MW = 4.663)
1Q2017= 21.417  (Export = 20.555 ; MW = 0.862)
2Q2017= 26.552  (Export = 25.307 ; MW = 1.245) => Export +135%
1H2017= 47.969  (Export = 45.862 ; MW = 2.107) => Export  +125%
 
China Export sales seems to be the only engine of growth.
 
Question remain : 
What was the “real growth” without “cheating” ? 
Is Growth sustainable without the “multi-level- compensation structure going forward?
 
_____________________________________________________________________________________

[Unicorn2]

Target Price is $1.70 (CIMB), now $1.59/1.60 (still 10 cent less than target price), For $1.70 think CIMB priced in projected growth to be same as historic performance (?????%) actual results 67%. Did it beat/within/fall below expectations? Growth in China: expected. Fall in Taiwan revenue: Expected/unexpected? For 3Q and 4Q according to past performance, always seasonally stronger than 1Q and 2Q - growth should be priced in for future analyst's Target Price. My 2 cents & Thanks Boon for the elaborated numbers

[Boon]

Hi Squirrel,

Here are my views.

Under the export model, BWI exports its BWL line of products to its China agent.
 
The China agent, sells the products to its clientele - traditional business owners of hair salons/beauty salons/nail salons/spas, across China.
 
The agent’s clientele sell the products to their customers through their hair salon chains, beaty salon chains, nail salon chains and spas
 
Development of clientele for its China agent is driven by BWI’s market support staff, product trainers together with a few selected leaders of Taiwan. Their involvement is mainly in terms of product trainings, sales techniques training and product presentation etc, on behalf of the agent.
 
Upon obtaining full DS operational approval in their respective city/area, all customers of the agent’s clientele  in that city/area, will be converted into their downlines – a condition which the agent’s clientele have to agree before being appointed
 
Why the exports model in China is experiencing such explosive growth?
 
Possible reasons:
-      Good and safe quality products.
-      Value for money
-      Good development support in developing the agent’s clientele
-      Scalability of the export model – though not as scalable as the DS model.
-   China is a huge consumers market  
 
Are distributors stockpiling to convert into the direct selling model later?
 
So far, the DS license granted is only for the city of Hangzhou – and only for 6 Aurigen line of health products.
 
Once the BWL line of products has been approved and admitted into the DS permissible products list, Hangzhou would be ready to be converted into the DS mode for BWL line of products.
 
If they are stockpiling, it would be confined to “distributors” in Hangzhou only - provided there are potential profits to be made – this would be dependent on the “pricing” of the products to be set by BWI under the DS mode.
 
Hence, if the are, the scale and their impacts would not be significant, IMO.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Why the exports model in China is experiencing such explosive growth?

Less than 3 months ago we were still discussing on the above question – a very good question posted by squirrel but a difficult one to answer.
 
I wasn’t sure then but did try to GUESS anyway–hence “POSSIBLE” is being used
 
Possible reasons:
-      Good and safe quality products.
-      Value for money
-      Good development support in developing the agent’s clientele
-      Scalability of the export model – though not as scalable as the DS model.
-   China is a huge consumers market  
 
Stockpiling by China distributors was cited as one other possible reason- but illegal business practices never crosses our mind at all (not for me at least) at that stage.
 
Compliant with China rules by BWI was an HUGE assumption (implicit) which I took for granted in all my prior analysis.
 
Unfortunately, that didn’t seem to be the case as I have discovered later…………
 
If a KEY assumptions of one’s investment thesis/analysis in a company/stock is no longer valid, flawed or under threat  - then one has to relook at the whole situation to fully understand its potential implications – and if necessary adjust one’s investment accordingly.
 
The consequences of getting this assumption WRONG could potentially be devastating and is not inconsequential – it could have wide and far-reaching implications.
 
An analysis is only as good as its underlying assumptions.
 
Some views remain unchanged as the underlying assumptions remain unchanged.
 
Some views have to change as a consequence of change in the underlying assumptions.
 
After all investing is a dynamic process…………………….
  
So,
What has not changed?
What has changed?
Why it has changed?
How it has changed?
360 degree or 180 degree or 90 degree or zero degree change?
 
One has to make up one’s own mind.

As in all investment it's a calculated risk at the end of the day. It depends on one's risk appetite and risk mitigation strategies should disaster strikes.

The consequences of "cheating" illegally to gain comparative advantage could be permanent shut down of China operation/revoke of DS license/ No revenue from China...

If that happens,
Revenue/profit would drop
Share price would drop
Investors suffered losses
Investors could sue the Company for misleading them
Company could go bankrupt........

What's your risk mitigation strategies for that?

Aiyoh!  If not comfortable just sell.

Ha-ha ! 
If not comfortable just sell !
If can't compete just cheat !
What's next?

[moneyspinner]

Why the exports model in China is experiencing such explosive growth?

Less than 3 months ago we were still discussing on the above question – a very good question posted by squirrel but a difficult one to answer.
 
I wasn’t sure then but did try to GUESS anyway–hence “POSSIBLE” is being used
 
Possible reasons:
-      Good and safe quality products.
-      Value for money
-      Good development support in developing the agent’s clientele
-      Scalability of the export model – though not as scalable as the DS model.
-   China is a huge consumers market  
 
Stockpiling by China distributors was cited as one other possible reason- but illegal business practices never crosses our mind at all (not for me at least) at that stage.
 
Compliant with China rules by BWI was an HUGE assumption (implicit) which I took for granted in all my prior analysis.
 
Unfortunately, that didn’t seem to be the case as I have discovered later…………
 
If a KEY assumptions of one’s investment thesis/analysis in a company/stock is no longer valid, flawed or under threat  - then one has to relook at the whole situation to fully understand its potential implications – and if necessary adjust one’s investment accordingly.
 
The consequences of getting this assumption WRONG could potentially be devastating and is not inconsequential – it could have wide and far-reaching implications.
 
An analysis is only as good as its underlying assumptions.
 
Some views remain unchanged as the underlying assumptions remain unchanged.
 
Some views have to change as a consequence of change in the underlying assumptions.
 
After all investing is a dynamic process…………………….
  
So,
What has not changed?
What has changed?
Why it has changed?
How it has changed?
360 degree or 180 degree or 90 degree or zero degree change?
 
One has to make up one’s own mind.

As in all investment it's a calculated risk at the end of the day. It depends on one's risk appetite and risk mitigation strategies should disaster strikes.

The consequences of "cheating" illegally to gain comparative advantage could be permanent shut down of China operation/revoke of DS license/ No revenue from China...

If that happens,
Revenue/profit would drop
Share price would drop
Investors suffered losses
Investors could sue the Company for misleading them
Company could go bankrupt........

What's your risk mitigation strategies for that?

Aiyoh!  If not comfortable just sell.

Ha-ha ! 
If not comfortable just sell !
If can't compete just cheat !
What's next?

Once you have sold, the issue is resolved as you no longer owns BWI!

[VIChris]

I am curious. How does so many DS companies manage to thrive in China having to comply with this  Single Level Commssion Rule?  Some made tonnes of money doing direct sales.  How do they do it?  Don't tell all of them are MLM sales and so are operating 'illegally' in China for so many years and yet  China hasn't stop them?  Why?  If so, why have the Single Commssion Rule and yet not enforcing it strictly?  Again, with MLM practices being so widely practised in China, is this now considered an accepted market practice despite having this rule?  Enforcement may only be done on a case by case basis when there are complaints or malpractices.

All in all, I have a feeling that operating in China is a big black box.  You can do anything so long so long as you don't get caught!

Try google/baidu “非法传销"。

Being investigated or reported as being investigated could sometimes be very damaging to share price and reputation which could in turn lead to lawsuits etc

Are you still vested, Boon?
From the initial excitement of sharing of the company past performance to now, questioning the BWI's business model in China.
You have a 360 degrees change of view on this company.
Why not state your position whether you are still vested, at least we know your position.

Applause to chialc88, at least he state his position.

Cheers!

Whether Chialc88 is still vested or not, it wouldn’t make any difference to Boon.
 
Whether Boon is still vested or not, it shouldn’t make any difference to anyone, should it?
 
If it should, what difference would it be ?

It does. If you are vested, would you bash the company like what you did for the past few days?
Though I believe your intention is good, but you have to be sensitive as there are many who are vested in this company and because of your bashing (yet to be verified whether they did what you suspect), it might raise unnecessary attention to forum/financial magazine/investors which result in negative sentiment on the company.

Hope you understand where I'm coming. Thanks for your sharing on this company.

Cheers

[Boon]

As in all investment it's a calculated risk at the end of the day. It depends on one's risk appetite and risk mitigation strategies should disaster strikes.

The consequences of "cheating" illegally to gain comparative advantage could be permanent shut down of China operation/revoke of DS license/ No revenue from China...

If that happens,
Revenue/profit would drop
Share price would drop
Investors suffered losses
Investors could sue the Company for misleading them
Company could go bankrupt........

What's your risk mitigation strategies for that?

Aiyoh!  If not comfortable just sell.

Ha-ha ! 
If not comfortable just sell !
If can't compete just cheat !
What's next?

Once you have sold, the issue is resolved as you no longer owns BWI!

Really? 

There is no better alternative to "selling" or "cheating in order to resolve the issue"?

[moneyspinner]

CIMB on Aug 7 raises the TP of Best World to $1.80 on gravity defying results of the company!
Quote
The group delivered another strong quarter. 2Q17 net profit was up a strong 62.4% yoy, ahead of both our and Bloomberg consensus expectations. This was driven by 1) stronger overall sales (+7% yoy), which mostly came from China (+125% yoy), and 2) better OP margins (2Q17: 34.7%, 2Q16: 20.2%), driven by operating leverage and sales mix. Accordingly, 1H net profit formed a strong 52% of our FY17F, even though 1H is seasonally weaker.  

[Boon]

All in all, I have a feeling that operating in China is a big black box.  You can do anything so long so long as you don't get caught!

Try google/baidu “非法传销"。

Being investigated or reported as being investigated could sometimes be very damaging to share price and reputation which could in turn lead to lawsuits etc

Are you still vested, Boon?
From the initial excitement of sharing of the company past performance to now, questioning the BWI's business model in China.
You have a 360 degrees change of view on this company.
Why not state your position whether you are still vested, at least we know your position.

Applause to chialc88, at least he state his position.

Cheers!

Whether Chialc88 is still vested or not, it wouldn’t make any difference to Boon.
 
Whether Boon is still vested or not, it shouldn’t make any difference to anyone, should it?
 
If it should, what difference would it be ?

It does. If you are vested, would you bash the company like what you did for the past few days?
Though I believe your intention is good, but you have to be sensitive as there are many who are vested in this company and because of your bashing (yet to be verified whether they did what you suspect), it might raise unnecessary attention to forum/financial magazine/investors which result in negative sentiment on the company.

Hope you understand where I'm coming. Thanks for your sharing on this company.

cheers

"If you are vested, would you bash the company like what you did for the past few days?"

WHY NOT ? Short term pain for long term GAIN ? 

CEO statement is REAL, it is a case of “不打自招”, literally, a self confession.

If you want 100% certainty on verification, there is only one choice - write to the authority/regulator in China.

[Squirrel]

All in all, I have a feeling that operating in China is a big black box.  You can do anything so long so long as you don't get caught!

Try google/baidu “非法传销"。

Being investigated or reported as being investigated could sometimes be very damaging to share price and reputation which could in turn lead to lawsuits etc

Are you still vested, Boon?
From the initial excitement of sharing of the company past performance to now, questioning the BWI's business model in China.
You have a 360 degrees change of view on this company.
Why not state your position whether you are still vested, at least we know your position.

Applause to chialc88, at least he state his position.

Cheers!

Whether Chialc88 is still vested or not, it wouldn’t make any difference to Boon.
 
Whether Boon is still vested or not, it shouldn’t make any difference to anyone, should it?
 
If it should, what difference would it be ?

It does. If you are vested, would you bash the company like what you did for the past few days?
Though I believe your intention is good, but you have to be sensitive as there are many who are vested in this company and because of your bashing (yet to be verified whether they did what you suspect), it might raise unnecessary attention to forum/financial magazine/investors which result in negative sentiment on the company.

Hope you understand where I'm coming. Thanks for your sharing on this company.

Cheers

VIChris, what I am going to say might be offensive to you, so if you do not want to read it please skip!



From your statement of "it might raise unnecessary attention to forum/financial magazine/investors which result in negative sentiment on the company.", first I derive that you are vested. Secondly, I imply that you think that there is something fishy going on with the company, or else you will not be afraid that others take note of this situation. Of course these are all just guesses.

What's in my opinion as well is that

1) Yes Boon has been bashing the company recently, but its only as much as he was promoting it in the past if you go all the way back, kinda fair if you ask me. People just don't like their holdings being bashed.
2) As everyone agrees, regulatory risk is always the BIGGEST risk associated with MLM/DS. This is a topic that cannot be avoided
3) It is absolutely necessary that these are raised in the forum. Even though you are vested and don't like what you are hearing, there might be investors waiting in the sidelines ready to jump in. There might be other vested individuals who need a voice of reason to balance the arguments for them. Asking Boon to shut up is not a solution.
4) And perhaps lastly, it might save people the pain that they go through for Noble or certain shipping firms/trusts if they had made an informed decision after going through the forum. I am not saying that BW is going that direction, but if in any circumstances it did, everyone can say they made an informed decision.

Look. I know vested interests don't like what they are seeing being said, but I believe the digging is for the greater good.

For all those bashing Boon and insisting to know whether he is vested (which you are only trying to infer that he is slandering the firm because he is out). If you don't like what you are seeing because you believe the firm has not done anything wrong, back it up with facts and research! Asking Boon to shut up is not an answer. Don't deprive of the rest of information that is vital to the investment thesis underlying this counter specifically.

[moneyspinner]

Try google/baidu “非法传销"。

Being investigated or reported as being investigated could sometimes be very damaging to share price and reputation which could in turn lead to lawsuits etc

Are you still vested, Boon?
From the initial excitement of sharing of the company past performance to now, questioning the BWI's business model in China.
You have a 360 degrees change of view on this company.
Why not state your position whether you are still vested, at least we know your position.

Applause to chialc88, at least he state his position.

Cheers!

Whether Chialc88 is still vested or not, it wouldn’t make any difference to Boon.
 
Whether Boon is still vested or not, it shouldn’t make any difference to anyone, should it?
 
If it should, what difference would it be ?

It does. If you are vested, would you bash the company like what you did for the past few days?
Though I believe your intention is good, but you have to be sensitive as there are many who are vested in this company and because of your bashing (yet to be verified whether they did what you suspect), it might raise unnecessary attention to forum/financial magazine/investors which result in negative sentiment on the company.

Hope you understand where I'm coming. Thanks for your sharing on this company.

Cheers

VIChris, what I am going to say might be offensive to you, so if you do not want to read it please skip!



From your statement of "it might raise unnecessary attention to forum/financial magazine/investors which result in negative sentiment on the company.", first I derive that you are vested. Secondly, I imply that you think that there is something fishy going on with the company, or else you will not be afraid that others take note of this situation. Of course these are all just guesses.

What's in my opinion as well is that

1) Yes Boon has been bashing the company recently, but its only as much as he was promoting it in the past if you go all the way back, kinda fair if you ask me. People just don't like their holdings being bashed.
2) As everyone agrees, regulatory risk is always the BIGGEST risk associated with MLM/DS. This is a topic that cannot be avoided
3) It is absolutely necessary that these are raised in the forum. Even though you are vested and don't like what you are hearing, there might be investors waiting in the sidelines ready to jump in. There might be other vested individuals who need a voice of reason to balance the arguments for them. Asking Boon to shut up is not a solution.
4) And perhaps lastly, it might save people the pain that they go through for Noble or certain shipping firms/trusts if they had made an informed decision after going through the forum. I am not saying that BW is going that direction, but if in any circumstances it did, everyone can say they made an informed decision.

Look. I know vested interests don't like what they are seeing being said, but I believe the digging is for the greater good.

For all those bashing Boon and insisting to know whether he is vested (which you are only trying to infer that he is slandering the firm because he is out). If you don't like what you are seeing because you believe the firm has not done anything wrong, back it up with facts and research! Asking Boon to shut up is not an answer. Don't deprive of the rest of information that is vital to the investment thesis underlying this counter specifically.

No offence made.  For those who feel uncomfortable with BWI currently, the best strategy is to get rid of it.  Like that you can then sleep peacefully!  Like I said earlier, doing business in China is a big black box. The ground is uneven. Only the smartest and the shrewdest will survive. The situation is very much different from that in Singapore where the law of the land rules and that's the reason why doing business here is so much easier because things are so much more transparent and that's also the reason why so many foreign ventures in China fail. Risk is high so are the rewards!