Best World

[chialc88]

Happy Mother's day.
Wish all mother a healthy and wealthy family.

Many valuebuddies have great hope for the success of DS in China.

As what d.o.g. and cityfarmar mentioned in their earlier posts in BWL thread,
we really need to know what distinguish Bestworld from the rest of the DS; 
+ we need to be mindful of the actual timeline on DS execution plan in China.

While waiting for the stock split, 
it would be good if fellows valuebuddies can understand a little bit of Bestworld strategy:

1. E-commerce for China 大中华市场 - iesingapore dated 14th Mar 2016
link

2. Export and DS model (pg 5) - DBS Customer Focus dated 1st Feb 2017
link

3. Strategic Stock Investment Opportunity by Ai Xin, Charles Phan & Jeremy Liang dated 27th Mar 2017
link

As for those visual and audio kids, watch this is easier:

[Boon]

@chialc88
 
I am not surprise at all that the notion of “shipment without an sales order” did actually crosses your mind.
 
Management foresee further increase in repeat consumption amongst existing users as well as the number of new users for DR’s Secret line of skincare solutions.
 
Management feels that it is necessary to hold sufficient inventories for 1Q and 2Q.
 
As a result, larger shipments had been made in 1Q.
 
It does sound as if the Management was the party responsible for placing the sales order,  or at least responsible for deciding how much inventories its client should hold,  and not the client itself, doesn’t it?  
 
What possible inferences could be drawn from this?
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[Boon]

Happy Mother's day.
Wish all mother a healthy and wealthy family.

Many valuebuddies have great hope for the success of DS in China.

As what d.o.g. and cityfarmar mentioned in their earlier posts in BWL thread,
we really need to know what distinguish Bestworld from the rest of the DS; 
+ we need to be mindful of the actual timeline on DS execution plan in China.

(Good advice - I was "heavily involved" in the discussions with both "d.o.g" and "cityfarmer" - no further comment from me at this stage)

While waiting for the stock split, 
it would be good if fellows valuebuddies can understand a little bit of Bestworld strategy:

1. E-commerce for China 大中华市场 - iesingapore dated 14th Mar 2016
link

(Page 8 of AR2015:

"On top of that, as shopping behaviours evolves and online shopping is gaining traction by the day, we will also be implementing a B2B platform and digital marketing campaign to further our wholesale/manufacturing business in FY2016. Upon successful implementation, these platforms could crossover to support also our core business of direct selling in existing markets and even new markets."

Nothing on this seems to have happened in FY2016...............)

2. Export and DS model (pg 5) - DBS Customer Focus dated 1st Feb 2017
link

(It doesn't appear to me that the China export model has been fully understood..........................)

Please refer to my answers above in blue.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[chialc88]

Channel Stuffing? Is it true? Who is responsible?

B,
Yes, I did imagine things as part of risk scenario.

However, in the last 24 hours, 
I did some calculation before I wrote my post yesterday.
link

Based on revenue recognition upon shipment,
it's clear that the additional $6m Dr's Secret is ordered by THE export agent.
Unlikely channel stuffing as BWL management is optimistic about the next Q volumes.

Worst case, THE export agent is too optimistic.
And, this extreme optimism created a false optimism in BWL management.
And, caused a mistake in inventory and business forecast.

This is actually a likely scenario.

---

For Q1FY17, BWL only provision additional $0.8m of inventory for 
both export and DS.

This seems to be reasonable thou.

---

Happy Mother day!
Enjoy - JJ Lin:

[Boon]

Channel Stuffing? Is it true? Who is responsible?

B,
Yes, I did imagine things as part of risk scenario.

However, in the last 24 hours, 
I did some calculation before I wrote my post yesterday.
link

Based on revenue recognition upon shipment,
it's clear that the additional $6m Dr's Secret is ordered by THE export agent.
Unlikely channel stuffing as BWL management is optimistic about the next Q volumes.

Worst case, THE export agent is too optimistic.
And, this extreme optimism created a false optimism in BWL management.
And, caused a mistake in inventory and business forecast.

This is actually a likely scenario.

Imagine shipments were made without sales orders
Imagine it is the responsibility of the Management in “placing” the sales orders.
Imagine BWI is playing a GREATER role and NOT lesser (just an Exporter) in its China export business.
Imagine BWI has more control over its Export Agent in China than you’d imagined.
Imagine BWI has total control over how its BWL line of products are being distributed within China by its Export Agent – which is a “retail business”, not in a sense of a 100% “traditional” retail business, but a hybrid that has feature characteristics of BOTH “traditional retail business ” and “DS business”.
 
Stretching your imagination just a little further………………..
Imagine the “retail model” is actually a “DS model in disguise”……………………
Imagine the “retail business” is run as if it is a “DS business”………………….
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Imagine there’s no heaven
It’s easy if you try
No hell below us
Above us only sky
Imagine all the people
Living for today………Aha-ah…………….

Imagine by John Lennon
Enjoy it !

[chialc88]

B,
I think you're right and
you're getting into my nerve too.

By now, you might already discovered that
my investment style is high concentration risks at best.
At worst, I am playing with fire.

Contrary to our senior valuebuddies key lessons learn in 2015/2016,
I am likely to make the same mistake as he did ( not just once but a few times despite his power/will ).

Yes, I did read his lesson learn as he had saved me many times in avoiding major mistakes.

BWL peaked at 2.97 3 days ago.
Past 2 days, lowest price - coincidentally is 2.76.

After I watch your imagine youtube, I am shaken a little bit...
... as I recalled d.o.g. lessons learn vividly.

Am I going to have sleepless night tonight?

watch this:

there's music playing, our friends are waiting
feelin' the beat, my shoulders swaying

the highway's humming, our laughter dances
been through enough, still taking chances

[chialc88]

CGN: D-Day Open@146; Close@143 

Dear valuebuddies,

D-Day just passed.
New ticker: CGN 

Just capture some info for our valuebuddies reading/keeping.
Would be useful in the next stock split.
 


The following songs is dedicated to 
those energetic and tough 宝贝 on behalf of Eros.



Remember:
人生的起起伏伏在所难免，
唯一不变的只有自己的努力。
只要你有努力
不管有多远的地方
不管是什么年纪的人，
他都会听到你执着的声音。

用心生活

祝我爱的人，
我爱的朋友们都能执着。
都能找到自己的方向

加油!

[chialc88]

Good morning valuebuddies.
Something interesting.
Let's recap:

1. Last day of trading Pre-split    19 May 2017 by   5pm
   
2. First day of trading Post-split  22 May 2017 from 9am
   
3. Book Closure Date                24 May 2017 at   5pm
   

D Day after split was on 22 May and nothing fantastic.
D+1 Day aka 23 May also nothing much.
D+2 Day aka 24 May also nothing worth talking.

D+3 aka 25 May which is one day after Book Closure Data 
actions started to come in.

Very tricky.  Excellent learning experience.
Interesting.

SNO OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE V(M) DELTA    %
22  146  146  140 143   2.45 -0.01 -0.7
23  143  143  140 141   1.58 -0.02 -1.4
24  142  142  138 140   2.07 -0.01 -0.7
25  140  149  140 148   5.65 +8    +5.7
??  ???  ???  ??? ???   ???? ????? ????



如果你想要做的不是長輩所控制你的樣子，
不是社會所規定你的樣子，

請你一定要勇敢的為自己站出來，
溫柔的推翻這個世界，
然後把這個世界變成我們的.

[chialc88]

Nothing's Gonna Stop us now:


All of us started our value investment journey by studying stocks with low PB, PE, high cash, high dividend yield.

Most of us moved into Intrinsic value, cashflow, score cards, ROE, ROA, debt to asset ratio.

Not satisfied with our research, some of us drilled into sector, industry, competition, peer comparison.

As part of our exploration, reading daily announcement and quarterly results become a habits too.

We are accustomed to the mission, value and culture of the company written in last 10 years annual reports.

We really think that we understand the company well enough to put in our hard earn money...
... knowing dame sure that buying stocks means buying risks.

---

The eureka moment come to me when I read a particular listed company annual report.


I had been working in the
  #1 German IT company
  #1 US IT company
  #1 Japan IT company

When I read the listed company annual report, 
it's like reading 
  my own business plan
  my SWOT analysis
  my sales strategy
  my vision and mission statement

It's very scary.
How could it be possible?

And, if you asked me whether I'll invest in that particular company?
The answer is no as I know the industry very well.

This is a Eureka moment for me
because for once, I realised the meaning of
"Investment is most prudent, when it is most business-like."

---

Unfortunately, knowing is one things, practising is another.

I do not know about Best world.
I had not attended any BW sales session (other than watching youtube).
I did not even know any of BW products (other than reading in Annual Report).
And, I had never heard about any of my friend using or selling BWL products.

Yet, BWL turns up to be my #1 stocks.

---

One of our value buddies shared his Top 30 stocks every month.
Once, Best world actually become his #1 stock which he quickly sold 60%.

Tracing:
Month Position/Remarks
0516  #18/first time appears in Top 30
0616  #14
0716  #8
0816  #1
0916  #2
1016  #2
1116  Disappear from Top 30 - sold 60%
1216  Disappear
0117  Disappear/Brought some back
0217  Disappear/Brought some back
0317  #23/Re-appear in Top 30
0417  #25
0517  (check out this week result)


I'm very glad that BW re-appear into Top 30.
I'm very keen to see how the 1-to-2 split impacted the Top 30 ranking.

Frankly, WJ,  in another few days,
you'll have factual and recorded answer to your question on stock splits for BWL's (questions)

---

I'm still learning.
I have my reasons of holding on to BWL tightly.
My reason might be flaw.
But at this moment,
I'm very sure that Nothing's gonna stop us now.
@ ABS-CBN studio in Philippines - my favourite customer:
link

[chialc88]

Why? Nothing's gonna stop us now?

Yeoman is a respectable value buddies with excellent 20 years track record.

A question that's always pop up in my mind is whether I should buy more, sell some or just hold on to BWL.

If you had hold on to your tickets (and not sold out),
then I'm pretty sure that that likely would be your questions too.

I'm super bullish on Best World (and also Micro Mechanics) at this moment.
Simply because I'm very bullish on the current stock market (Singapore lar).

On 31 Mar (2 months ago), SCYeo wrote:
Review at end 1Q17

Over the 10 years following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, the world
economies have been caught in a quagmire of either negative growth or flat, weak, sub-
par growth giving politicians and policy makers many sleepless nights wondering how
to revive demand.  Even as recently as 1-2 quarters ago, the IMF and other multilateral
world economic organizations were publishing more of the same reports warning of
continued economic weakness in the developed countries and emerging markets.

In sharp contrast to the above, over the past few weeks I have been reading more and
more publications pointing to recovery in the local, regional and world economies with
headlines such as "Surge in non-oil exports lends hope of turnaround" 18Mar17, 
"Manufacturing marches up for seventh straight month" 04Apr17, "Factory growth
surges in US euro area" 04Apr17, "Asia posts strong manufacturing growth numbers"
04Apr17 in the local newspaper the Straits Times.  Not to be left out, the EIU weekly
publication The Economist issue of 18Mar17 carried the slogan "On the up, the world
economy's surprising rise" on its cover page.

In the last 10 years of weak economic conditions our Fund NAV was up 3.91x from 
trough in Feb09 to the current NAV at end Mar17.  If at last the world economies turn
positive and start growing again, it should be good for our Fund and its shareholders.

---

What I concluded after reading Yeo's Mar review:
#1 if economy turn up, then his stocks should go up very high
#2 if economy did not turn up, then his stocks should also go up (but not so high lar).

I read a lot (I wish similar to YeoCS too).
I'm not able to predict the future price for BWL (and MM).
However, I know that at this moment, the market has only one way to go.

I kept reminding myself that buying stocks is like buying risks.
At this moment, I perceived the risks as manageable.

It's true that most value buddies sees BWL (and MM) as no longer under value.
In facts, just a few months ago, BWL received so many queries from SGX,
that I thought it almost break a record.

Good or bad, SGX backed off and assume it's usual quiet posture.

Securities company actually took the cue and BWL is deem as a speculative stocks too.

Other than general market conditions, there are specific reasons why I belief in BWL (and MM).

These reasons will go beyond the numerical values and into the business.

Instead of a investment/security analyst, we must transform and become a business analyst to appreciate.

Enjoy:


又回到这个尽头
我也想再往前走
只是越看见海阔天空
越遗憾没有你分享我的感动
我不是一定要你回来
只是当又一个人看海
回头才发现你不在
留下我迂回的徘徊

La La, Jia You!
Best World Bao Bei, Jia You!