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https://on.mktw.net/2zieyXg Check out this article from MarketWatch - ‘We’ve seen the lows in March’ for the stock market, says man who called Dow 20,000 in 2015, ‘and we will never see those lows again
Still, according to Siegel, unprecedented support for the economy by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government make it nearly impossible for the stock market to revert to its late March lows
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[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
14-05-2020, 11:48 AM (This post was last modified: 14-05-2020, 11:48 AM by weijian.)
An interesting study just based on stock market averages, although to note that there is large variation within each group.
Does Better Virus Response Lead to Better Stock Market Outcomes?
I went through each of these lists to check the year-to-date performance of each country’s stock market to see if there is any correlation between getting a handle on the virus and stock market performance in 2020. I looked at both ETF and local currency performance.2
14-05-2020, 03:59 PM (This post was last modified: 14-05-2020, 04:03 PM by Wildreamz.)
There are too many important factors (Fed response, monetary policies, what constitutes their index, geopolitics, at which stage of the market cycle are they etc.) to isolate a single factor's (e.g. government response to the public health crisis) impact on index performance.
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
(14-05-2020, 03:59 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: There are too many important factors (Fed response, monetary policies, what constitutes their index, geopolitics, at which stage of the market cycle are they etc.) to isolate a single factor's (e.g. government response to the public health crisis) impact on index performance.
Do agree that there are many factors and hence that is why we see a lot of variation between the samples in each group. The author has also acknowledged that.
Nonetheless, i still see some signal in the noise based on statistical testing. So what i did was to manually tabulate these values into a spreadsheet to derive the stats below:
Mean/Median/Std deviation/interquantile range
Doing Best: -16.9/-13.7/2.4/11.5 (sample size: 14)
Almost there: -15.1/-15.8/2.5/16.6 (sample size: 15)
Not there yet: -22.4/-21.8/2/10.2 (sample size: 22)
Based on 1 way ANOVA test (assume normal distribution), p-value = 0.0566
Based on 1 way Median Test (more valid since data is not normal), p-value = 0.0229
The test above means that there is ~94-98% chance that there is a difference between the groups. I will leave out the confidence intervals to simplify matters and just using the median to calculate the differences between groups (there is a 6-8% difference between the "doing best/almost there" group compared to "not there yet").
It is prudent for me to conclude that the "state of Covid-19" does impact how Mr Market determines equity values and that with all things been equal, Mr Market will give a single digit 6-8% average premium, if one manages to flatten the curve compared to others who haven't managed to do so.
I've actually been following quite closely SG rise in cases and guesstimated 0.1% fatality for Dorm workers. But looking at the stable ICU numbers and the fact that testing is vigorous on a young population, I have lowered to 0.01% fatality. The under-reporting hence the understated denominator is a big swing factor that I've been saying which we can only get a clearer picture next year. I'm assuming 10% of Dorm workers ~32k cases. With 0.001% it will be 3 cases. Princess Cruise had ~20% infection out of which 2% mortality ie 0.4% of total
On the other hand community cases are not extensive so I will stay at 1% guesstimate as average across all ages. With ~2500 confirmed cases (not mass testing) it will be 25 fatalities
So my guesstimate is that there will be approximately projected 25+3=28 fatalities based on the data and trend currently. I suspect these % figures are quite universal as long as healthcare is adequate and not overwhelmed. Purpose of this exercise is to say that fatality can actually be predicted somewhat and not that random.
We look at details cause we are VB Statistical models is a guide for me but not necessarily predictive.
(26-04-2020, 11:29 AM)specuvestor Wrote: The market is expecting a V-shaped recovery. But it can only happen if economies restart and demand opens up, on the basis of a quick vaccine
The reality is that the lock down cannot last more than 2 months to have a permanent structural impact on demand and fiscal deficit, not to mention monetary policies as it dips into credit markets where losses are real. High unemployment with high fiscal debt and ZIRP are near wits' end if it doesn't resuscitate the patient. The other 3rd order impact is social unrest simply because people have to work to eat. If there is a second wave, which people are monitoring china, I doubt lock down will be viable anymore. It's a grim debate between deaths and the hardship of living; as a commentator remarked: the dead don't vote.
My expectation is the same that over longer term it has to be treated like a more deadly flu virus with low load community immunity as the goal. For example Germany and Sweden is moving towards that.
What most people don't realise is that despite the surge of the cases in Singapore due to extensive testing, the number in ICU did not spike as much. Migrant workers are mostly young; the bigger danger is in old folks' home which is already emerging in US. Like I mentioned before, if everyone is tested I'm pretty sure most countries are under declared, probably by factor of ~10, because only serious cases are tested
SG's mistake to be honest is to leave the causeway open after we knew the seriousness of the KL conference spread and proceeded to close down mosques. Half of Malaysia's confirmed cases is from that conference. And now people question the dorms when 1) we house a lot of those Malaysians in the dorms when they had nowhere to go 2) we arrested the Bangladeshi cluster back in Feb. The diff now is we decided to test everyone rather than the previous protocol of don't test and issue Quarantine to those close contact to confirmed cases (ie symptomatic)
Personally I think the market is too optimistic on the variability of the projections. Indeed this war is going to last longer than 2020. My only hope is that summer will prove effective in curbing the spread
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
SINGAPORE: COVID-19 might be "with us for a long time", but the coronavirus can be contained if Singapore follows its "dance steps", said leading infectious diseases specialist Leo Yee Sin on Thursday
"The city where it all started, Wuhan, China, is on alert again. Over the next 10 days, authorities in China's coronavirus epicenter are testing every one of its 11 million residents after six new coronavirus cases were reported over the weekend."
https://on.mktw.net/2Ze92jb Check out this article from MarketWatch - ‘Betting against the U.S. economy and consumer is a loser’s game’ — why one strategist sees Dow 40,000 on the horizon
40000 points Dow in sight ?
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[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
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Statistical models is a guide for me but not necessarily predictive.