Chip Eng Seng

The huge volume seen yesterday was not due to share buyback. Are retail investors finally taking note of CES?
Company only bought up to 90 cents. fair enough.

This seems to be quite similar to what the company did previously. They bought up to 60 cents (Dec 2012) and the share price shot to 90 cents in the following 2 months. (pls refer to my last posting at #253 on the relationship b/w share buyback and subsequent share price)

This time around, there should be stabilization of share price at much higher level from the possibility of higher regular dividend, from 3 key sources (Alex hotel, St Kilda and San Centre) supplemented by income from construction arm.

(04-09-2014, 04:16 PM)yewkim Wrote: will the price come dowm, once the coy stop buying?

I have taken some profit from this counter but the stock still seem to hold well at this price and not dropping. Someone seems to want it to go up or stay strong. Wonder what is going on? I am thinking of buying back when it drops back to 90ct as it is now one of the strongest property stock on SGX I think (others are Lian Beng, Hong Fok, Bonvests, Tuan Sing).

Compare the chart with the charts of other property stocks like Aspial (from Jan 14 about unchanged), Oxley (unchanged or down slightly), Roxy (unchanged), Fragrance (down slightly).

The last buyback was on 2 sept at 90 cents 1.525 mil shares, and on 26 Aug, 0.68mil shares at around 90 cents too.
In fact, most of the recent buybacks were at around 90 cents

If the company thinks that share price can hit only $1 in the next few months, I don't think company will still buy back at 90 cents for a meagre gain of only 11%...



02-Sep 1,525,000 0.899
01-Sep 1,700,000 0.895
26-Aug 680,000 0.900
22-Aug 1,500,000 0.890
18-Aug 2,000,000 0.850

Vested but would divest just before the end of this FY.

(13-09-2014, 07:32 PM)Bluechipfan Wrote: Vested but would divest just before the end of this FY.

Can pls share what is your reason for divestment. Thanks.

(14-09-2014, 01:10 PM)yewkim Wrote:

(13-09-2014, 07:32 PM)Bluechipfan Wrote: Vested but would divest just before the end of this FY.

Can pls share what is your reason for divestment. Thanks.

Net profit is expected to be 180.8 m this FY but it will tapper off to 100 m next FY and then 40 m in FY16. The EPS will also drop accordingly so I will divest before the end of this FY.

FY14 full year forecast EPS ~ 34 cents
Q1 & Q2 ~ 6 cents
Q3 - 9 cents (EPS)
Q4 - 19 cents (EPS)
NAV gain for FY14 ~ 34 cents
NAV at the end of FY14 ~ $1.11

FY15 full year forecast ~ 15 cents (EPS gain)
But NAV should increase by a further ~25 cents (revaluation gain from Alex hotel)
NAV gain for FY15 ~ 40 cents
NAV at end of FY15 ~ $1.51

Recurrent income ~ 3.5 cents per annum.
Construction segment ~ 3 cents per annum.

Property counters are usually valued as a discount to their RNAV ("potential realizable NAV" if all known/pipeline projects are sold) with some consideration given to the amount of recurrent income or "regular dividend". The most important factor is still leadership and "friendliness to minority shareholders".

If the regular dividend is increased to 6 cents, CES would likely stabilize at around ~$1.20 (i.e. 5% yield), with some fluctuation depending on the property development profits.

Current RNAV of CES is estimated to be more than $2.00, of which $1.50~$1.60 has all been "locked in" as the projects are almost fully sold off.

Of course, those who don't feel comfortable holding CES should just sell off so that u can sleep better at night
Having a peace of mind is always better than anything else

But, now we know why company still bought back up to 90 cents..

Hi Curiousparty,

If FY15 RNAV is 1.51, how then existing RNAV is >$2.00?

Agreed with you that most appropriate value method for property company is by NAV. However, Mr. Market is reacting to the earnings. That's the fact.

IMO, I will use both.

(15-09-2014, 11:25 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: FY14 full year forecast EPS ~ 34 cents
Q1 & Q2 ~ 6 cents
Q3 - 9 cents (EPS)
Q4 - 19 cents (EPS)
NAV gain for FY14 ~ 34 cents
NAV at the end of FY14 ~ $1.11

FY15 full year forecast ~ 15 cents (EPS gain)
But NAV should increase by a further ~25 cents (revaluation gain from Alex hotel)
NAV gain for FY15 ~ 40 cents
NAV at end of FY15 ~ $1.51

Recurrent income ~ 3.5 cents per annum.
Construction segment ~ 3 cents per annum.

Property counters are usually valued as a discount to their RNAV ("potential realizable NAV" if all known/pipeline projects are sold) with some consideration given to the amount of recurrent income or "regular dividend". The most important factor is still leadership and "friendliness to minority shareholders".

If the regular dividend is increased to 6 cents, CES would likely stabilize at around ~$1.20 (i.e. 5% yield), with some fluctuation depending on the property development profits.

Current RNAV of CES is estimated to be more than $2.00, of which $1.50~$1.60 has all been "locked in" as the projects are almost fully sold off.

Of course, those who don't feel comfortable holding CES should just sell off so that u can sleep better at night
Having a peace of mind is always better than anything else

But, now we know why company still bought back up to 90 cents..

Ray168 Wrote:Hi Curiousparty, If FY15 RNAV is 1.51, how then existing RNAV is >$2.00? Agreed with you that most appropriate value method for property company is by NAV. However, Mr. Market is reacting to the earnings. That's the fact. IMO, I will use both.

Did u read wrongly ?

FY15 NAV - $1.51 . Tks

OK. I may read wrongly.

I mean FY15 NAV = $1.51.

The existing RNAV is >$2.00. The "existing" means when?

(15-09-2014, 12:35 PM)Curiousparty Wrote:

Ray168 Wrote:Hi Curiousparty, If FY15 RNAV is 1.51, how then existing RNAV is >$2.00? Agreed with you that most appropriate value method for property company is by NAV. However, Mr. Market is reacting to the earnings. That's the fact. IMO, I will use both.

Did u read wrongly ?

FY15 NAV - $1.51 . Tks