China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings

I am just being conservative, least I give too optimistic a picture.

Can you give me the relationship or formulation u used to link price and volume increase to GPM.
I can adjust my simulation to reflect the new relationship.

tks.

(30-07-2014, 10:01 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: I am just being conservative, least I give too optimistic a picture.

Can you give me the relationship or formulation u used to link price and volume increase to GPM.
I can adjust my simulation to reflect the new relationship.

tks.

Hi Curiousparty

It is common sense that GPM is dependent on price increase, and vol increase. It will not make sense to treat them as independent numbers.


I thought you had formulated the relationship between GPM, price increase and vol increase before carrying out the Monte Carlo simulation.

If you had not and are now asking me for suggestions, the results may be of limited use.

Thank you..

I thought u had a non-linear relationship b/w price/volume price and GPM?

I only had a simple linear relationship with lots of buffer (i.e. conservative).

Pls share if u have (for the benefit of all value buddies here)

(30-07-2014, 03:02 PM)simpleman Wrote:

(30-07-2014, 10:01 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: I am just being conservative, least I give too optimistic a picture.

Can you give me the relationship or formulation u used to link price and volume increase to GPM.
I can adjust my simulation to reflect the new relationship.

tks.

Hi Curiousparty

It is common sense that GPM is dependent on price increase, and vol increase. It will not make sense to treat them as independent numbers.


I thought you had formulated the relationship between GPM, price increase and vol increase before carrying out the Monte Carlo simulation.

If you had not and are now asking me for suggestions, the results may be of limited use.

Thank you..

Hi Curiousparty,

Can you show us the linear (whatever it means) relationship you have and the buffer since you already have them?
By the way, 2Q 13 revenue was RMB 426.5m, but your simulation gives RMB 535.8m as minimum 2Q 14 revenue. This is 25.6% increase.
You have stated that vol increase is 15% minimum, and price increase is 5% minimum. Did you assume uniform increases for all three product categories? What is the breakdown of revenue?
As accelerators have little spare capacity, how was it possible to have vol increase of 15%.
Hope you can share as you already have the details before carrying out simulations.

Curiousparty

Have you overlooked my post?

I hope you will share with us the relationship bewteen GPM and selling prices and the breakdown of revenue.

Thank you.

(05-08-2014, 12:24 PM)simpleman Wrote: Curiousparty

Have you overlooked my post?

I hope you will share with us the relationship bewteen GPM and selling prices and the breakdown of revenue.

Thank you.

result will be out on 7.8.14. don't have to guesstimate anymore. 2 more days only, just wait.

Moderator


Do you think Curiousparty ought to share with forummers the basic points in his modelling?

He was confident in stating that he will be able to forecast the profit of Sunsine. But when asked why 5% price increase would result in a marginal 1.4% increase of GPM, he replied that he had been conservative.

But it is clear that he was not conservative in assuming that sales revenue would grow by 25.6% with a 15% increase in sale volume.

Bluechipfan may not appreciate that this forum is for us to share and learn. If Curiosparty is serious about the matter, he should share with us.

It is also not the case that he is busty during this period as he has been busy posting on Chip Eng Seng, and BBR.

Just to clarify to all.

Never in my posting did I state that "I am confident that I am able to forecast the profit of Sunsine".

What I did was just "forecasting of results" (via Monte Carlo Simulation) using simple and conservative assumptions
(which I have already made known upfront).

And I have put in caveats as well. So, pls don't come and blame me if the actual results differ. If the actual result turns out to be very close, I would not claim credit either.

To me, this is just an academic exercise to better understand the cost structure of the company.

many tks.
(btw, pls stop "stalking me")

(06-08-2014, 02:10 PM)simpleman Wrote: Moderator


Do you think Curiousparty ought to share with forummers the basic points in his modelling?

He was confident in stating that he will be able to forecast the profit of Sunsine. But when asked why 5% price increase would result in a marginal 1.4% increase of GPM, he replied that he had been conservative.

But it is clear that he was not conservative in assuming that sales revenue would grow by 25.6% with a 15% increase in sale volume.

Bluechipfan may not appreciate that this forum is for us to share and learn. If Curiosparty is serious about the matter, he should share with us.

It is also not the case that he is busty during this period as he has been busy posting on Chip Eng Seng, and BBR.

We should appreciate sharings, and should be reasonable on our expectation since none of us get paid to participate in VB.

Curiousparty initiated a modelling, and shared with her result. We should appreciate her effort regardless of the result. If the modelling was flawed, you rebuts with your points to highlight them, or you can chose to ignore them.

Let's close the case, and restart a new page with the upcoming result tomorrow. It should be a very interesting result.

No further moderation required.

Regards
Moderator

The actual 2Q profit is very likely to fall within the wide range of profit (RMB 41.2m and RMB 55.4m) that Curiosparty provided. The wide range is of little help.