What if Ukraine's situation escalates?

Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
#61
(02-05-2014, 07:16 PM)sgd Wrote: The Arabs namely Saudi and the Americans have an agreement. In return for American protection the Saudi's agree to price and accept only us$ for oil payments.

We see that other country regimes that have tried to move away from accepting us$ for oil payments like Iraq, libya, syria have been kicked out by the Americans. The only way for the Saudi's to agree to ditch the dollar is if they can find someone as strong as the Americans and protection from American retaliation and I see the only country today that can still stand up to Americans are the Russians. China still has long long way to go but the Russians are technology exporter ex-global superpower they have been there and done that. Maybe not what they used to be but today still are a global power to be reckon with and massive stockpile of nukes in their arsenal.

Depending on how drastic sanctions against the Russians go they could very well retaliate by not accepting anymore greenbacks for Russian oil.

yes that was the birth of the LIBOR market and the beginning of the petro$ recycling.

But the pre-requisite of accepting a currency is primarily a function of usage in global trade. Rubles is nowhere near there while Asian trades are increasingly being invoiced in RMB

Who will lose out if Russia unilaterally doesn't accept greenbacks? Even during the GFC the Russians who was hoping to destroy the USD hegemony by asking the Chinese to dump US securities with them, couldn't do that. It is not going to happen in the next 10 years at least.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
Reply
#62
(03-05-2014, 03:31 PM)orangetea Wrote:
sgd Wrote:I used to think so too, but I can say with some confidence now that everything seems to point to us acquiring aircraft carriers in the future. The americans have tested sea control ships (scs) basically a downsized version of enterprise class aircraft carrier mostly for asw anti submarine operations consisting of around 10-14 helos and 4 harrier jumpjets this was around 1974. If you look at carriers today they are generally accompanied by escorts surface cruisers/destroyers underwater submarines and flying overhead awacs. But with the advancement of missile technology we means maintaining expensive big ships with big guns are no longer required. We are already operating all these escorts we have 6 advance frigates, 4 submarines and contract for another 2 more from HDW and we have awacs and new gulfstream placons. Plus today we already have naval facilities in place to support large aircraft carriers which we built on the pretext to invite US carriers for stopover in singapore. ST engineering has the capability to build helicopter carriers they have showcased the Endurance-160 at several exhibitions already. And mindef has confirmed they interested in F-35b with STOVL - short takeoff vertical landing capabilities like the british harrier jump jets. We have all the elements in place except the real mccoy I estimate with the escorts available we can support 2 small groups of SCS if anybody still doubt can also read this article. http://thediplomat.com/2013/10/singapore...e-fighter/

Where to deploy the aircraft carrier?

Nearby are indonesia and malaysia.

Like our airspace restriction, the air craft carrier cannot travel too far out.

The aircraft carrier will be more like sitting duck.
Place a few F35 on it. Its nice to sink the aircraft carrier and hit us hard since our military hardware is somewhat limited. Hit it, we lose essential military personal.

Not viable imo.

We have no sea range or air range to boast.

A better investment is to place a satellite war weapon in space to target land assets in space and kill other satellites, knocking out the comms of enemies and facilities.

I remember during WW2, the Japs and Americans were searching for each other Aircraft Carriers.

They need to keep their location confidential and large perimeter of defense. Once spotted, chances of survival is slim.

Just my Diary
corylogics.blogspot.com/


Reply
#63
(03-05-2014, 04:21 PM)specuvestor Wrote:
(02-05-2014, 07:16 PM)sgd Wrote: The Arabs namely Saudi and the Americans have an agreement. In return for American protection the Saudi's agree to price and accept only us$ for oil payments.

We see that other country regimes that have tried to move away from accepting us$ for oil payments like Iraq, libya, syria have been kicked out by the Americans. The only way for the Saudi's to agree to ditch the dollar is if they can find someone as strong as the Americans and protection from American retaliation and I see the only country today that can still stand up to Americans are the Russians. China still has long long way to go but the Russians are technology exporter ex-global superpower they have been there and done that. Maybe not what they used to be but today still are a global power to be reckon with and massive stockpile of nukes in their arsenal.

Depending on how drastic sanctions against the Russians go they could very well retaliate by not accepting anymore greenbacks for Russian oil.

yes that was the birth of the LIBOR market and the beginning of the petro$ recycling.

But the pre-requisite of accepting a currency is primarily a function of usage in global trade. Rubles is nowhere near there while Asian trades are increasingly being invoiced in RMB

Who will lose out if Russia unilaterally doesn't accept greenbacks? Even during the GFC the Russians who was hoping to destroy the USD hegemony by asking the Chinese to dump US securities with them, couldn't do that. It is not going to happen in the next 10 years at least.

Is not to Chinese advantage to support Russia rubles and being located next to them physically. They will prefer safer friend like US to certain extend, keeping them in deterrence mode for bargaining with US.

Just my Diary
corylogics.blogspot.com/


Reply
#64
IMHO thinking US is a safer friend is a mistake. It is mostly strategic quid pro quo. Even our dear LKY has said something like "tolerating a good friend's mistake". I have learnt through the years that any politician depending solely on foreign country help is an idiot. I understand the struggle internally but no help is without conditions.

The reality is opposite of what you said is happening. I had told off a US guy who said China should not be protecting North Korea that the answer is quite simple: US move out of South Korea and Japan, and North Korea will collapse overnight.

Geopolitically 一山不能藏二虎 but China doesn't really want to be big brother anyway.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
Reply
#65
A safer friend to US doesn't mean we have to be enemy to Russia or China. ofcourse you cannot solely depends on one. It will be suicidal.

However if WW3 happens, i am pretty sure which side we will be on if we are forced to participate. Ofcourse we do not want to choose side unless is at our door step. Hosting US navy logistic tells people clear of our intention. Is the action that counts not words.

There are rumors that our FTA with US is a reward for being a close friend. Not sure is favorable to us more than them though. It will be interesting to know but a Win-Win is often good enough.

Just my Diary
corylogics.blogspot.com/


Reply
#66
(03-05-2014, 03:31 PM)orangetea Wrote: We have no sea range or air range to boast.

Precisely we have no sea range we have at most coastal territory up to horseberg lighthouse and yet we are already operating blue water frigates and submarines what are they up to right? Big Grin

As to where to put the carriers if you have noticed over the years we have been forward basing our advance equipment overseas, we have training bases is US france india china taiwan brunei alaska where we put our advance equipment for training purposes, the same will happen for the carriers, they will base in overseas or join in nato or un on some long haul overseas humanitarian or anti piracy mission.

forward basing presents a less threatening posture to our neighbors as advance weaponry is not in their backyard but strategically if anybody want to take us out will have to factor in our ability to hit back is the whole basis of our defense strategy, our jet pilots have been known to fly from here to europe then once reach there continue non stop to participate in exercises so fly from there to back is also no problem but they need runways to land we have 3 runways we close down paya lebar now left 2, if somebody take out these 2 runways our planes cannot land.
Reply
#67
Kremlin strategy sees Kiev lose ground as Ukraine up to the elbows in blood
BOJAN PANCEVSKI THE TIMES MAY 04, 2014 9:55AM

Fierce battles continue in Ukraine 2:24
Play video
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/exter...z9c5xuj3mc
More than 50 people have died in two days of clashes between Ukrainian soldiers and pro-Russian rebels.


Pro-Russian activists shout "We will not forgive Odessa" in front of the offices of IndusPro-Russian activists shout "We will not forgive Odessa" in front of the offices of Industrial Union of Donbass Corporation in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine. Source: AP <>
Fierce battles continue in UkrainePro-Russian activists shout "We will not...
UNDER the cover of darkness, a squadron of heavily armed Mi-24 Hind helicopter gunships roared into the air from a Ukrainian military base on a top secret mission.

The flying tanks, as they were known during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, were heading towards the eastern town of Slovyansk, the pro-Russian stronghold of a separatist rebellion that has been spreading through this part of Ukraine like wildfire.

The rebels, many of them members of the elite Russian special forces, were ready and waiting, however: they had received a tip-off more than 24 hours before the attack early last Friday morning.

As the gunships swooped, the rebels fired Russian-made Igla surface-to-air guided missiles, shooting two helicopters down and damaging another.

The failure of such a high-profile mission was humiliating confirmation that Ukrainian security forces, heavily infiltrated by Russian sympathisers, are losing the battle to stop the gradual takeover of the eastern and southern regions by Kremlin-sponsored separatists.

"The Kremlin is waging an unconventional war on Ukrainian territory; we are losing the eastern regions," said a senior Ukrainian defence source. "The Russians have spies within our system, and they have excellent intelligence capabilities."

The debacle in Slovyansk came amid a week of escalating violence and bloodshed that reached a climax on Friday in the southern city of Odessa when at least 42 people died — many of them separatists trapped inside a burning trade union building, while police and fire service apparently stood by and did nothing.

A woman from Odessa caught up in the violence described how she and other bystanders sought refuge in the building, only to be bombarded by a baying pro-Kiev mob, who fired small arms and threw molotov cocktails against the building.

"The men told us to go upstairs and that they would protect us," she said. "The crowds outside were shouting, 'Kill them, kill them.' When someone went to the windows because of the fire, they yelled, 'Jump, jump.'

About 2,000 people yesterday laid flowers outside the building, which was surrounded by hundreds of troops from the Ukrainian interior ministry. The bodies of 30 or so pro-Russian protesters were still inside.

The Kremlin accused the government in Kiev of "allowing extremists and radicals to burn people alive".

"Their arms are up to the elbows in blood," thundered a spokesman for President Vladimir Putin.

The Ukrainian interior ministry claimed the separatists, armed with molotov cocktails, had accidentally set the building on fire themselves.

In a rare piece of good news, a team of international military observers seized by pro-Russian separatists were freed yesterday after a week held hostage. "We're happy that we are finally out," said Axel Schneider, a German colonel and member of the group.

Meanwhile, several more people were reported killed yesterday in an assault by the Kiev government on the eastern city of Kramatorsk.

"What we are facing in the Donetsk region and in the eastern regions is not just some kind of short-lived uprising; it is in fact a war," said Vasyl Krutov, the head of the government's "anti-terrorist centre".

Despite such operations, there appears to be a growing realisation in Kiev that the government is losing its grip over large swathes of territory.

The climax is expected next Sunday, when separatists plan referendums across the east and south in regions including those around Donetsk and Luhansk, and possibly Kharkiv and Odessa.

The result is expected to be a vote to break away from the west to become an independent state — or even to follow the example of Crimea, which in March joined Russia. By the time of presidential elections, set for May 25, Ukraine may no longer exist as a single country.

During the course of last week, I watched as separatists took over all the state institutions in the industrial regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

One by one, headquarters of the police, the judiciary and the state-owned broadcasters were occupied by masked men in military fatigues and pro-Russian protesters. In all cases, police appeared impassive and even complicit.

In Donetsk, the regional capital, masked thugs in uniforms, wielding clubs and makeshift weapons, terrorised the city as they took over government buildings.

On Thursday, traditional May Day celebrations turned ugly as 200 separatists first occupied the regional police headquarters then stormed the office of the regional prosecutor. Putting up only feeble resistance, the 400 police in full riot gear were disarmed, beaten and dragged out.

I was in the building as the masked men looted the offices, ripping hard drives from computers and destroying legal files. Security sources said later that they wanted to destroy evidence against criminals paid to join the rioters.

The attack was supported by about 1,500 local people, some of them waving Russian flags and posters of Josef Stalin, the Soviet dictator — chanting slogans against the "fascists" and the "junta", as they describe the government in Kiev, which took over after the ousting of the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych in February.

"Kill them, kill the fascists," chanted a group of elderly women, as rioters dragged out police officers who waited in vain for reinforcement.

Similar scenes were seen in more than a dozen other towns and cities. What had begun as a political battle turned into hatred that split communities across the country.

Friday's helicopter attack — a joint effort by the interior and defence ministries and National Guard — was a seemingly failed last-ditch attempt to halt the Russian advance.

Yet few are convinced such operations will be enough to hold the county together.

As the situation deteriorated, senior officials of the Donetsk regional government said they felt abandoned by the Kiev government.

"Our biggest mistake was to expect help from Kiev," said a senior official. "I'm ready to pack and take the first flight out when the Russians take over completely."

Such despair is understandable: while there is no doubt that large swathes of the population of the east and south of Ukraine have little love for the government in Kiev, there are strong suspicions the uprisings are orchestrated by Moscow.

Ukrainian secret services say the operations are being led by Igor Girkin — nicknamed Strelkov — a colonel in the Russian special forces who is alleged to have led the takeover of Crimea.

Strelkov stepped out of the shadows last week to confirm the claims in an interview with the Moscow newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda. His deputy, according to the secret service, is Serhii Zdryliuk, another Crimean veteran, who holds both Russian and Ukrainian citizenship.

The use of sophisticated Russian Igla air-defence missiles, which operate on infra-red guidance, to defeat Friday's helicopter attack was evidence that the rebels are armed by the Kremlin, Ukraine's security service said.

The separatist paramilitaries were armed with special versions of the popular Kalashnikov — AK-101, AK-102, and AK-103 — also supplied by Russia.

The governor of the Donetsk region, Sergei Taruta, an oligarch turned politician estimated to be worth $US2.7bn, admitted people "lived in fear" and that even he and his family could no longer "sleep peacefully at night".

While admitting that Kiev was becoming increasingly remote, he expressed his grievances about the lack of action by Britain and other western countries. "We are left on our own — that's how all of Ukraine feels."

Yesterday, his own office in Donetsk was stormed and looted by separatists. Masked youths chanting "we won't forget Odessa" were seen later drinking his Veuve Clicquot on the pavement outside.

The Times
Reply
#68
Planning ahead

http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20140513/...-Navy.html

[Image: 188433575.jpg]

MOSCOW, May 13 (RIA Novosti) – Russia’s Black Sea Fleet will be strengthened with some 30 warships, submarines and auxiliary vessels in the next six years, the head commander of the Russian navy said Tuesday.

“The Black Sea Fleet must have a full complement of naval vessels to be capable of performing all assigned missions,” Adm. Viktor Chirkov said.

“This is not a provocative military buildup. This is something the Black Sea Fleet urgently needs as it has not been receiving new vessels for many years,” the admiral said.

According to the Defense Ministry, among the new vessels being built for the fleet are six Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates and six Varshavyanka-class (Improved Kilo-class) diesel-electric submarines.

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was founded by a decree of Empress Catherine the Great in 1783.

The main tasks of the Black Sea Fleet are protecting the region’s economy, suppression of illegal activities, ensuring navigation safety, and the implementation of foreign policy actions in economically important areas of the oceans.

Last year, the fleet’s vessels made nine long-distance cruises and visited 37 ports in thirteen countries.

The aircraft and helicopters of the Black Sea Fleet’s naval aviation conducted more than 300 training flights, dropping sonobuoys and conducting exercises with bombs and missiles.
Reply
#69
Ukraine exposure: Food Empire, Ukraine is second largest market.

Vested
:Big Grin

Finding the Value in a Speculative World
Reply
#70
Food empire also have manufacturing facilities in Russia, now US sanctions on Russia, Japan has follow with visa bans for russian citizens presumably under pressure from US how is that going to pan out if they later apply the same pressure to other allies like Singapore?

Also without factoring if situation escalates in ukraine will commercial activity be affected or vis a vis if ukraine bans Russian exports to ukraine whats going to happen?
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)