What if Ukraine's situation escalates?

Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
#71
Arab Spring is looking to be an Arab Mess... with US handprints all around which is asking for anti-US sentiments going forward

(03-05-2014, 04:44 PM)specuvestor Wrote: IMHO thinking US is a safer friend is a mistake. It is mostly strategic quid pro quo. Even our dear LKY has said something like "tolerating a good friend's mistake". I have learnt through the years that any politician depending solely on foreign country help is an idiot. I understand the struggle internally but no help is without conditions.

The reality is opposite of what you said is happening. I had told off a US guy who said China should not be protecting North Korea that the answer is quite simple: US move out of South Korea and Japan, and North Korea will collapse overnight.

Geopolitically 一山不能藏二虎 but China doesn't really want to be big brother anyway.

Libyan Militias Led By Former General Attack Parliament And Declare It Dissolved
2014-05-19 00:30:32.124 GMT


By Hassan Morajea;Abigail Hauslohner
May 19 (Washington Post) -- TRIPOLI, Libya — Militias allied with a former Libyan general staged a brazen attack on Libya's parliament on Sunday and declared it dissolved, in some of the worst fighting the capital has seen since the 2011 revolution.
By Sunday night, those forces announced that the elected General National Congress was being replaced by an existing constitutional drafting committee. It was far from certain that
the order would be observed. But the power grab threatened to send Libya hurtling into a full-blown civil war.
Tripoli residents and journalists reported heavy fighting, including rocket attacks and gunfights, in several central neighborhoods. Dozens of vehicles mounted with antiaircraft guns
could be seen speeding toward the center of the capital from a southeastern suburb. Plumes of black smoke rose over the city.
It was unclear whether ex-general Khalifa Haftar commanded sufficient force to prevail in the showdown in Tripoli — the latest chapter in a struggle for power, land and resources that
has raged in this oil-rich country since the fall of longtime dictator Moammar Gaddafi. The central government has struggled unsuccessfully to rein in scores of militias that emerged from
the anti-Gaddafi uprising.
"In Libya, there really isn't a party on the ground that is more powerful than the other," said Essam Gheriyani, a prominent businessman.
The Associated Press quoted hospital officials as saying that two people were killed and more than 60 were wounded in the fighting, which occurred two days after Haftar's forces launched an assault on Islamist militias in the eastern city of Benghazi, leaving 70 dead.
Libyan news media reported that Haftar's militia members had also kidnapped several national lawmakers Sunday. And rumors circulated that the justice minister had narrowly survived an
assassination attempt.
Reached by phone, the justice minister, Salah Merghani, sounded shaken but would not comment on the reports. "My colleagues and I are okay. I can't really talk. Thank you," he
said.
In an ominous sign, militias from the coastal city of Misrata were en route to Tripoli on Sunday night, said Anwar Salwan, a powerful local leader from the city about 110 miles
east of the capital.
Haftar is, a mysterious former general-turned-opposition leader who sought exile in the United States in the 1980s, and lived for years in Falls Church, Va. He returned to Libya during
the 2011 uprising.
Gen. Mokhtar Farnana, speaking for Haftar's forces, the so-called Libyan National Army, said on Libyan television Sunday that the country's 60-member constituent assembly, elected this year to draft Libya's new constitution, would replace parliament, according to the AP. He said Libya's central government would continue to act on an emergency basis.
"We announce to the world that the country can't be a breeding ground or an incubator for terrorism," said Farnana, according to the AP.
But some members of Libya's government said they would ignore the demands by Haftar's forces.
"The government condemns the expression of political opinion through the use of armed force," Merghani said in a statement, the AP reported.
In recent months, Libya's militias have roughly divided into two groups. One includes Islamist militias in Benghazi, joined by allies from Misrata. The other is a diverse group of more-liberal
politicians, Gaddafi-era military officers and tribal militias from Tripoli and the western mountains.
Both sets of forces hold positions, or at least allies, in the central government and in parliament, and have received funding and resources from the state.
On Sunday, two Tripoli militias who form part of the anti-Islamist grouping stormed the parliament's empty headquarters.
The militias — known as the Qaqa and Sawaiq — pledged allegiance to Haftar. As darkness fell over Libya and the country's political future, it was also unclear where the former
general was.

Haftar is a well-known figure in Libya. He was a military officer who took part in the 1969 coup that brought Gaddafi to power. He later commanded Libyan troops in their war with
neighboring Chad, but was taken prisoner by Chadian forces. In 1988, he broke with Gaddafi and established the Libyan National Army, described as a rebel group based in Chad. Haftar
claimed publicly that he had U.S. backing. In a 2011 interview with CNN, Libya's former ambassador in Washington, Ali Aujali, who supported the anti-Gaddafi uprising
that year, declined to confirm whether the CIA had bankrolled the Libyan rebel group established years earlier by Haftar. But, he said, "The Americans know him very, very well."
He added: "I think working for the CIA for the sake of your national interest is nothing to be ashamed of."
When The Post asked in 2011 about Haftar's possible connections to the CIA, a senior intelligence official said the agency policy was not to discuss such issues.
Haftar had struggled unsuccessfully to gain control over Libya's disparate rebel forces during the early months of the 2011 uprising. After Gaddafi's ouster, he had gradually faded from the Libyan political scene, until recently.
Some Libyans called Haftar's assault Sunday a military coup.
But other observers said that that description would lend the forces more legitimacy than they deserve.
"It's silly to say a military coup, because there is no military," said Jalal el-Gallal, a former member of Libya's transitional authority.
Massoud Ali Shalash, a Haftar supporter and a local leader in the western mountain town of Zintan, said the militias had given the government a chance to show it could run the country.
"The Congress is a failure and the government is a failure. The purpose of [Haftar's] actions was to purify the army and the Congress," he said.
Salwan, the Misrata leader, said the city's militias had stopped about 60 miles from Tripoli on Sunday night, to try "to understand more about who is fighting with whom before sending in
our forces."
But "Zintan must be stopped," he added, referring to the Qaqa brigade's hometown.

abigail.hauslohner@washpost.com

Hauslohner reported from Moscow. Erin Cunningham and Lara El
Gibaly in Cairo contributed to this report.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
Reply
#72
Ukraine and Arab situations are related because we are all One World?
Reply
#73
this is what I was talking about retaliation You now have 2 powerful heavy weights in the world agree to increase trade in their own currencies if the americans escalate or inflame china and russia further the next step I see they will totally stop accepting the dollar payments this is becoming very thin ice for the americans here.

This also throws up question, if other countries dare to switch to rmb and rubles for trading means it is become "interest of china and russia" will they be guarantee any protection by these duo from american wrath?

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140520/1899685...ncies.html
Reply
#74
(21-05-2014, 12:15 AM)sgd Wrote: this is what I was talking about retaliation You now have 2 powerful heavy weights in the world agree to increase trade in their own currencies if the americans escalate or inflame china and russia further the next step I see they will totally stop accepting the dollar payments this is becoming very thin ice for the americans here.

This also throws up question, if other countries dare to switch to rmb and rubles for trading means it is become "interest of china and russia" will they be guarantee any protection by these duo from american wrath?

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140520/1899685...ncies.html

To replace the dominance of US$ in trades, will take years, if not decades, with the size of the trading volume. It can't move as fast as one thought, and it is not frictionless, IMO
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
Reply
#75
(21-05-2014, 09:26 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:
(21-05-2014, 12:15 AM)sgd Wrote: this is what I was talking about retaliation You now have 2 powerful heavy weights in the world agree to increase trade in their own currencies if the americans escalate or inflame china and russia further the next step I see they will totally stop accepting the dollar payments this is becoming very thin ice for the americans here.

This also throws up question, if other countries dare to switch to rmb and rubles for trading means it is become "interest of china and russia" will they be guarantee any protection by these duo from american wrath?

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140520/1899685...ncies.html

To replace the dominance of US$ in trades, will take years, if not decades, with the size of the trading volume. It can't move as fast as one thought, and it is not frictionless, IMO

Well that's true but it's already a start in the process. You look at relations between russia and china they have grown closer if anything and banded together for mutual support, small countries try to play this game they get slapped around by americans but this duo the americans cannot do anything.

The chinese rmb is still inconvertible at this point so that means the ruble as I mention earlier could become a currency use for oil payments in the future, if other countries like iran syria egypt fed up with american aggression or interference start saying please pay us in rubles we don't accept dollars anymore it's adios americana means anybody wants to buy oil from these countries will first need to buy rubles creating support in the currency and I forsee the americans are going to short the ruble like crazy
Reply
#76
(21-05-2014, 09:41 AM)sgd Wrote:
(21-05-2014, 09:26 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:
(21-05-2014, 12:15 AM)sgd Wrote: this is what I was talking about retaliation You now have 2 powerful heavy weights in the world agree to increase trade in their own currencies if the americans escalate or inflame china and russia further the next step I see they will totally stop accepting the dollar payments this is becoming very thin ice for the americans here.

This also throws up question, if other countries dare to switch to rmb and rubles for trading means it is become "interest of china and russia" will they be guarantee any protection by these duo from american wrath?

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140520/1899685...ncies.html

To replace the dominance of US$ in trades, will take years, if not decades, with the size of the trading volume. It can't move as fast as one thought, and it is not frictionless, IMO

Well that's true but it's already a start in the process. You look at relations between russia and china they have grown closer if anything and banded together for mutual support, small countries try to play this game they get slapped around by americans but this duo the americans cannot do anything.

The chinese rmb is still inconvertible at this point so that means the ruble as I mention earlier could become a currency use for oil payments in the future, if other countries like iran syria egypt fed up with american aggression or interference start saying please pay us in rubles we don't accept dollars anymore it's adios americana means anybody wants to buy oil from these countries will first need to buy rubles creating support in the currency and I forsee the americans are going to short the ruble like crazy

The West-Russia conflict is like China-Sino, will change upon interests shifted. It will not last long enough to be a major catalyst for RMB (or ruble) internationalization, IMO

Having said so, RMB as a major trading currency is an unstoppable trend, but it will take time to reach there.
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
Reply
#77
(21-05-2014, 09:59 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:
(21-05-2014, 09:41 AM)sgd Wrote:
(21-05-2014, 09:26 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:
(21-05-2014, 12:15 AM)sgd Wrote: this is what I was talking about retaliation You now have 2 powerful heavy weights in the world agree to increase trade in their own currencies if the americans escalate or inflame china and russia further the next step I see they will totally stop accepting the dollar payments this is becoming very thin ice for the americans here.

This also throws up question, if other countries dare to switch to rmb and rubles for trading means it is become "interest of china and russia" will they be guarantee any protection by these duo from american wrath?

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140520/1899685...ncies.html

To replace the dominance of US$ in trades, will take years, if not decades, with the size of the trading volume. It can't move as fast as one thought, and it is not frictionless, IMO

Well that's true but it's already a start in the process. You look at relations between russia and china they have grown closer if anything and banded together for mutual support, small countries try to play this game they get slapped around by americans but this duo the americans cannot do anything.

The chinese rmb is still inconvertible at this point so that means the ruble as I mention earlier could become a currency use for oil payments in the future, if other countries like iran syria egypt fed up with american aggression or interference start saying please pay us in rubles we don't accept dollars anymore it's adios americana means anybody wants to buy oil from these countries will first need to buy rubles creating support in the currency and I forsee the americans are going to short the ruble like crazy

The West-Russia conflict is like China-Sino, will change upon interests shifted. It will not last long enough to be a major catalyst for RMB (or ruble) internationalization, IMO

Having said so, RMB as a major trading currency is an unstoppable trend, but it will take time to reach there.

As I posted in another thread: China's position is that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. That is not the same as getting closer. And that Russia has been trying to undermine the USD since the GFC when it sold all their UST and MBS, urging China to do the same.

Rubles is not a hard currency. Many people don't understand what that means in reality. Simplistically it means whether the currency can be used to purchase goods and services in other countries besides the domestic country because of the perceived credit.

RMB is not internationalised yet per se (though it is probably half way there) but it is likely to be a hard currency going forward. For example I do not foresee Middle East settling oil in Rubles invoice, especially since Russia is competitor, but not entirely impossible in RMB in near future.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
Reply
#78
Need to be realistic. You can't pull with left hand and push using right hand and expects drastic change in position.

Therefore i see that any agreement on trade between russia/china using respective currency, even if there is impact, is going to hit back to themselves simply other sectors and business of their own economy is using USD being impacted.

Just my Diary
corylogics.blogspot.com/


Reply
#79
now why would china want to do this when there's proven jetliner platforms on the market like american boeing or european airbus .. unless of course they trying to diversify or maybe they expecting such things will not be made available to them in the future ... Big Grin

--Investment in Joint Russian-Chinese Long-Range Airliner May Reach $10Bln

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140520/1899757...r-May.html
Reply
#80
^^^ IIRC Chinese aviation technology originally came from the Soviets, including missiles and space

BTW no short term pact, but I'm sure this will happen eventually:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/mark...l/9340467/
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 12 Guest(s)