What if Ukraine's situation escalates?

If you look around us. How many things are made in Russia ? Neither could they stop selling oil. Oil is their lifeline. Even if the trade between China and Russia are significant, is no matter much to the world.

Russia will lose big. China will be very happy to help a close neighbour to become weaker like north korea. Maybe they can grab back Mongolia from Russia.

What military exercise ? Just wayang only. China today got too many 1 child family which they can't afford to lose.

Many of America's things that the world uses are "made in china".

You are right that oil is the lifeline of Russia. If you check the video how the Americans toppled the USSR was to flood the market with Arab oil and bring down prices, parallel to that and not many know they also did it by financial intrigue and currency speculation that brought down the russian ruble.

flooding oil in the market works both ways can hurt somebody but also hurt yourself. The fact that there is a fracking revolution in oil exploration in America could point to middle east peak oil, if you go by reasoning that there is oil in the middle east why is there a need to frack? And fracking technology ain't cheap, if they flood the market with arab oil prices come down will also hurt themselves.

I see in the short to medium term the russian ruble could again come under intense attack and manipulation perhaps related to sanctions but out in the longer term there's big potential that the ruble could one day be the new preferred mode of payment for oil.

Be realistic. The Chinese is not going to fight US for Russia. In fact China prefers a weaker Russia.
So they will encourage Russia to fight while they will also continue to export to america to be strong.

If you have re-look the video again, the answer is simple. The world has huge amount of Oils. The question is the cost to extract them.
When Oil gets too expensive, higher cost extraction becomes viable. There is no conspiracy. Is the very reason why Arabs stop their Oil embargo that time because Oil is their lifeline.

(02-05-2014, 12:06 PM)sgd Wrote: I see in the short to medium term the russian ruble could again come under intense attack and manipulation perhaps related to sanctions but out in the longer term there's big potential that the ruble could one day be the new preferred mode of payment for oil.

Why is oil not traded in Saudi Riyal?

We have to go back history to understand the 70s gulf crisis and the US role in it, from Saudi to Petro$. Then we have the Iraq/Iran war where US is buddies with Saddam and provided them with weapons. Hence when US say Iraq has WMD we better believe it. Oops...

From that war came Osama which is CIA trained and was the operative into USSR controlled Afghanistan. Remember the Mujahideen that Rambo 3 was dedicated to? That's more or less the Taliban after a civil war. Thats why again makes a lot of sense why Taliban harbouring Osama makes sense. Oops again...

Then of course we have the breakup of USSR and downfall of communism and the dissolution of Warsaw. Russian interest is greatly diminished. US took Gorbachev's friendship and made use of Yeltsin. I don't think the proud "Soviets" will forget soon.

Fast forward to today post 911 everything changed except for the Petro$. The bipolar world during the cold war has changed to a singular dominant US New World Order. The rest of the world is not sitting still in the New World Order: EU wants their own dominant currency, China is rising with Russia wanting to regain its history. If we study the events in context of history we will understand how this geopolitical events came about and how it is likely to proceed. Each have their own national interests.

And why US need to increase their own energy independence, while China seeks to be aligned with anyone who could give them energy. But if you understand Chinese culture, historically 中原 has never been really interested in foreign affairs.

How much energy does Russia provide for the rest of the world? more than 7 million barrels per day. How much is that? Saudi Arabia exports 8+, almost 9 million barrels per day. For a complete sanction of Russia, the size of the oil the world loses is almost the same Saudi Arabia exports. Can any other country or countries fill the hole? Unlikely without a huge jump in the price of crude oil.

Of course, there would not be a complete sanction of Russia. The world will allow China and India, maybe Japan and South Korea to continue to import oil from Russia, probably at a lower price. Other energy sources which China, India, Japan and South Korea originally imports from will be diverted to Europe and the rest of the world, probably at a higher price. So, net net, China and India probably will benefit the most. Russia will suffer the most as the revenue from energy export will reduce a lot. Europe will pay dearly(it has to anyway, that's the price to pay for Ukraine to be independent from Russia), but not as bad as Russia.

Natural gas is even worse. Russia is the biggest exporter of natural gas in the world.

If Putin is not stupid, he will not let the situation escalate to somewhere he can't control. The Russia already owns Crimea and the world is okay with it(The US and Europe will not press Russia further if Putin stops at Crimea). The rest of the world can live with partial sanction of Russia, with Europe paying for the price. But the Russians will be miserable in that case. Can Putin stay in control firmly as Kim can in North Korea?

data from EIA.
http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=SA
http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=RS

(02-05-2014, 03:17 PM)specuvestor Wrote:

(02-05-2014, 12:06 PM)sgd Wrote: I see in the short to medium term the russian ruble could again come under intense attack and manipulation perhaps related to sanctions but out in the longer term there's big potential that the ruble could one day be the new preferred mode of payment for oil.

Why is oil not traded in Saudi Riyal?

We have to go back history to understand the 70s gulf crisis and the US role in it, from Saudi to Petro$. Then we have the Iraq/Iran war where US is buddies with Saddam and provided them with weapons. Hence when US say Iraq has WMD we better believe it. Oops...

From that war came Osama which is CIA trained and was the operative into USSR controlled Afghanistan. Remember the Mujahideen that Rambo 3 was dedicated to? That's more or less the Taliban after a civil war. Thats why again makes a lot of sense why Taliban harbouring Osama makes sense. Oops again...

Then of course we have the breakup of USSR and downfall of communism and the dissolution of Warsaw. Russian interest is greatly diminished. US took Gorbachev's friendship and made use of Yeltsin. I don't think the proud "Soviets" will forget soon.

Fast forward to today post 911 everything changed except for the Petro$. The bipolar world during the cold war has changed to a singular dominant US New World Order. The rest of the world is not sitting still in the New World Order: EU wants their own dominant currency, China is rising with Russia wanting to regain its history. If we study the events in context of history we will understand how this geopolitical events came about and how it is likely to proceed. Each have their own national interests.

And why US need to increase their own energy independence, while China seeks to be aligned with anyone who could give them energy. But if you understand Chinese culture, historically 中原 has never been really interested in foreign affairs.

The Arabs namely Saudi and the Americans have an agreement. In return for American protection the Saudi's agree to price and accept only us$ for oil payments.

We see that other country regimes that have tried to move away from accepting us$ for oil payments like Iraq, libya, syria have been kicked out by the Americans. The only way for the Saudi's to agree to ditch the dollar is if they can find someone as strong as the Americans and protection from American retaliation and I see the only country today that can still stand up to Americans are the Russians. China still has long long way to go but the Russians are technology exporter ex-global superpower they have been there and done that. Maybe not what they used to be but today still are a global power to be reckon with and massive stockpile of nukes in their arsenal.

Depending on how drastic sanctions against the Russians go they could very well retaliate by not accepting anymore greenbacks for Russian oil.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101637209

If Russia goes over the economic cliff, it won’t go alone
9 Hours Ago
Fiscal Times for CNBC.com


President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Cabinet members at the Kremlin in Moscow, April 21, 2014.

Secretary of State John Kerry last month tried to explain the complexity of the decision-making process surrounding sanctions on Russia. The U.S. and E.U. have already announced very targeted sanctions against Russia as a penalty for its takeover of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula and it's threatening posture toward eastern Ukraine.

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However, what's been implemented so far is only a taste of what a full-on sanctions regime, such as the one imposed against Iran, might mean for the Russian economy. But in testimony before Congress last month, Kerry noted that Russia is a major player in the world economy, and said that damaging the Russian economy will also have effects on U.S. businesses operating in Russia and on U.S. exports.

"If you start going down that road, it's not just them who feel it, we'll feel it too," he said.

Read More IMF warns Ukraine on bailout if it loses east
Of course, some will feel it more than others, and the irony here is that the more pressure the U.S. and its allies put on the Russian economy, the more damage it is likely to do to the countries most concerned about Russian aggression.

Who's who in the Russia-Ukraine standoff

Getty Images
For argument's sake, assume the Russian economy goes into severe recession and, as a result, demand for imports drops. According to data collected by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Observatory of Economic Complexity, the likely impact on the U.S. would be minimal. As of 2011, the most recent data available, less than one percent of total U.S. exports went to Russia.

By contrast, some of Russia's closest neighbors—and those most concerned about Russian President Vladimir Putin's posture toward his former Soviet Republics—also happen to be major trade partners with the Russian Federation.

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12 Things You didn't know about Ukraine
For Putin, invading Ukraine augurs Russia's destiny
Russia's military bear is a paper tiger


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Ukraine: Unclear how far is Putin willing to go
Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, comments on Ukraine following the launch of the government's operation to retake control in eastern parts of the country.
Ukraine's relationship with Russia has, obviously, been dramatically altered. But as of 2011, Russia accounted for 27 percent of Ukraine's exports. Moldova, which many believe to be a potential target for Putin, sent 26 percent of its exports to Russia.

Ukraine's northern neighbor, Belarus, stands to lose more than any other country should Russia cut back dramatically on imports, as 32 percent of its exports go there.

Read More Oil lifted as Ukraine tumult stokes supply shock fears
But the impact extends well beyond countries immediately within the Russian sphere of influence.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, three former Soviet Republics that are now part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), are likely in no danger of Russian invasion because of the treaty obligations that commit the U.S. and other major power to their defense. However, Latvia relies on Russia as a customer for nine percent of its exports, and Lithuania and Estonia each send 14 percent of their exports to the Russian Federation.


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CEOs and CFOs of top companies tell CNBC about the effect of the Ukraine crisis on their business.
Major European powers also smaller, but non-trivial, levels of exports to Russia. Germany and Italy send 3 percent of their exports there, and France sends two percent. Not huge numbers, but in the difficult economy Europe is facing, even small declines in demand can have a real impact.

The likelihood that further sanctions will have an impact is hard to deny. In a report issued Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund said the Russian economy has run into a brick wall as a result of the crisis in Ukraine.

"The Russian economy, already slowing because of pre-existing structural bottlenecks, has been further affected by geopolitical uncertainties arising from conflict between Russia and Ukraine," the report said. "Growth is expected to ease to 0.2 percent in 2014, with considerable downside risks."

Read MoreObama announces new US sanctions on Russia
Further, the IMF said, "In 2014, Russia's growth is expected to continue its slowing trend to 0.2 percent, from 1.3 percent in 2013. Investment will further contract due to the uncertainty around the geopolitical situation. Capital outflows increased significantly in Q1 2014 to US$ 51 billion."

Additional sanctions on Russia will no doubt increase the pressure and the pain on Putin. But neither will be limited to the country the sanctions target.

—By Bob Garver of The Fiscal Times

(01-05-2014, 09:56 PM)corydorus Wrote: Not sure what you mean Russia trying to protect her sovereignty - a Nuclear Power. The fact is South Crimea got annexed in broad daylight. And now they are testing East Ukraine. Can we imagine if everyone base on such line of sovereignty means ?

Lets look at this analogy. Imagine Canada itself is made up of many different smaller countries.

China formed good relations with some of those countries, forming military alliance, trading bloc etc. Chinese armed forces attack some other countries claiming that they have nuclear weapons, chemical weapons etc. Setting up anti missile system, cooperating in military drills.

And taaadaaa, the next thing you realized, Toronto is embroiled with their own internal troubles.(financial difficulties, coup de'tat). The Chinese alliance offered its hand to its trouble. What do you think USA will think or feel? Excluded, threatened with the alliance next to your doorstep.

US is a nuclear superpower as well. However, global politics isn't all about its strength or power of its arsenal of weapons. It is more like a big brother, small brother complex. This complex and exclusion affects multiple variables of US. Global influence, trading and commerce, security(Spies, military agents are able to infiltrate easily) balance of power at the Pacific and Atlantic region.

Well that's my own biased opinion based on what I have read and observed. There will be a lot of flaws in this argument. Whatever it is, let us hope everyone can live in peace!

Before Soviet Unions there are many states which were forcible included through Communism and genocide.
Many hate the Russians. That's one of main reason is so much easier to tear it apart.

One thing for sure is not about sovereignty. Is about land expansion and ideology.

sgd Wrote:I used to think so too, but I can say with some confidence now that everything seems to point to us acquiring aircraft carriers in the future. The americans have tested sea control ships (scs) basically a downsized version of enterprise class aircraft carrier mostly for asw anti submarine operations consisting of around 10-14 helos and 4 harrier jumpjets this was around 1974. If you look at carriers today they are generally accompanied by escorts surface cruisers/destroyers underwater submarines and flying overhead awacs. But with the advancement of missile technology we means maintaining expensive big ships with big guns are no longer required. We are already operating all these escorts we have 6 advance frigates, 4 submarines and contract for another 2 more from HDW and we have awacs and new gulfstream placons. Plus today we already have naval facilities in place to support large aircraft carriers which we built on the pretext to invite US carriers for stopover in singapore. ST engineering has the capability to build helicopter carriers they have showcased the Endurance-160 at several exhibitions already. And mindef has confirmed they interested in F-35b with STOVL - short takeoff vertical landing capabilities like the british harrier jump jets. We have all the elements in place except the real mccoy I estimate with the escorts available we can support 2 small groups of SCS if anybody still doubt can also read this article. http://thediplomat.com/2013/10/singapore...e-fighter/

Where to deploy the aircraft carrier?

Nearby are indonesia and malaysia.

Like our airspace restriction, the air craft carrier cannot travel too far out.

The aircraft carrier will be more like sitting duck.
Place a few F35 on it. Its nice to sink the aircraft carrier and hit us hard since our military hardware is somewhat limited. Hit it, we lose essential military personal.

Not viable imo.

We have no sea range or air range to boast.

A better investment is to place a satellite war weapon in space to target land assets in space and kill other satellites, knocking out the comms of enemies and facilities.