Popular Holdings

Wah... for a moment, I thot' I'm the only one left holding this baby..

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orang,

Thank you for your kind words.
After giving it a lot of deep thots', I'd actually decided to take the opportunity to address the concerns raised to force myself to revisit the whole thread and what I'd posted previously to ensure that I'd not been guilty of misleading anyone else, but more importantly, including myself. If guilty, it may be a disaster (financially) for me as I'm currently quite heavily vested (~ quarter of my portfolio) on this one counter.
Oh ya, another interesting thing - my mental image of you (from your posts) was someone half my age who's able to somehow ask very 'deep' questions in simple short sentences - it always set me thinking very deeply and made me realise that I'd been somewhat slacking in my studies. Now, I know that you're likely someone who's a lot more experienced and was just giving me some pointers (with your Qs) on the right direction to look for the critical answers. Thx a million!

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yeokiwi,

No worries, I'm actually quite thick skinned, having survived other forums. This one is actually child's play, in comparison to some I'd faced before. In fact, some even prefer to send me 'fan' mail personally and I have blocked all PMs and email contacts to avoid such unpleasant surprises which'll truly spoil my day. At least in public, they tend to be more civil, else they'll get moderated or even banned...

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lonewolf,

Hmm.. you win hands down on wild imaginations...
But, bear in mind that Old Man is from an earlier generation. Money may not be the most impt thing and there're other things we may not be able to fully appreciate, like family honour? He even named his son after the Uni he attended!
Hee.. I imagine his father may have appeared in his dreams to scold him for selling Popular Hldg shares from Sep-09 to Nov-10 (ignoring the 3 lots on Feb-12). He's now atoning for his 'sins' by buying back as he's worried how he's going to answer to his Dad (the founder) when they next meet up...
Ok, just kidding lah..Will post in detail if what I imagined ever come true.

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karlmarx,

Wah.. u lagi more optimistic than me! That's more than double current prices! IMO, that's only possible if there's a 3rd party involved. That's why I posted earlier that if it's Old Man doing a G.O., it's highly unlikely he'll offer a huge premium over NAV (25.09ct).
BTW, I think I need to apologize if you didn't get to buy it cheap during the recent market volatility. On days when it ought to drop (as there were no other buyers), the support was likely provided by me and some of my friends and family members... It was quite illiquid for those days, we didn't managed to buy a lot tho'..

Based on the last done share price of $0.225 (as at 27Jul12), Mr Market is now pegging Popular at a historical PER of approx. 6.1x (based on the latest FY12's EPS of $0.037), and a price-to-book ratio of approx. 0.9x (based on the latest NAV/share of $0.2509 as at 30Apr12).....
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...C003F8246/$file/POPULARSGXNETAnnouncement_Final.pdf?openelement
This can't be an over-priced situation!

Popular is now trading on a 'CD' basis with a declared $0.008/share Final dividend for FY12, payable on 26Sep12, with 'XD' date fixed for 7Sep12. Based on the total dividend payout of $0.013/share for FY12, at the last done share price of $0.225 Popular provides a dividend yield of approx. 5.8%p.a. - not bad at all for a growing business!

If Chairman Chou decides to sell his controlling stake, would the buyer or suitor eyeing for the entire Popular Group be prepared to pay a price pegged to a PER as high as 10.0x? This is highly possible, I think.

Hi kopikat,

Just because there are not many who post does not mean there are not many vested. They must be like me, trying to accumulate quietly.

Valuing popular at $400mil is not excessive. 10x p/e gives us $300mil. It has a $150mil cash hoard. Taking $50mil as working capital will still leave you with $100mil excess cash. Of course, if chairman Chou tries to take the company private, he will try to pay as little as possible. But since he doesn't hold more than 60% of the shares, it's not going to be easy for him to low ball the remaining investors - if he wishes to take it private.

You and your associates have provided strong support indeed. For 3mths when all we hear was the euro crisis, popular's share price has not weakened, significantly, if at all. I had to look at other stocks ;(

well, on an objective point of view, i think chou's real intention is not clear but in any case, the point is that chou is the main and largest shareholder and we need to ask ourselves, what's is his entry price in popular? maybe in region of 15c puls minus. with near 60% stake at average price of say $15c, even if he decides to go on buying spree and take popular to its NAV of 25c, i doubt his average price will hit 20c. whereas those who go in at 20-25c have to keep on guessing his intentions and keep their fingers cross in case chou chooses to leave things as such and the price may fall below 20c. that's where the painful part of those hopefuls who went in at 20-25c will feel.

that's my personal take on popular.

(30-07-2012, 10:16 AM)paullow Wrote: well, on an objective point of view, i think chou's real intention is not clear but in any case, the point is that chou is the main and largest shareholder and we need to ask ourselves, what's is his entry price in popular? maybe in region of 15c puls minus. with near 60% stake at average price of say $15c, even if he decides to go on buying spree and take popular to its NAV of 25c, i doubt his average price will hit 20c. whereas those who go in at 20-25c have to keep on guessing his intentions and keep their fingers cross in case chou chooses to leave things as such and the price may fall below 20c. that's where the painful part of those hopefuls who went in at 20-25c will feel.

that's my personal take on popular.

Chou's intention only forms part of the investment merits of Popular. The other merits of Popular that had been spelt out repeatedly in this thread are much more critical in assessing the attractiveness of Popular.

I seriously do not mind that Chou decides to take the throttle off Popular and let the price falls.
Neither do I mind if he continues to accumulate.

With the kind of bookstore/stationary/assessments/socks/shoes/bags/toys network, it is almost like a monopoly in Singapore.
No one in the right mind will start a bookstore chain to compete with Popular. I wouldn't. The margin is terrible and the overhead cost is high.

The only possible competitor is the supermarkets if they decide that they shall also sell the same merchandise as Popular. But, since the margin is low, they might as well sell other more profitable items.

Online bookstore is another threat but we had yet to see a successful model in Singapore.

(30-07-2012, 10:33 AM)yeokiwi Wrote:

(30-07-2012, 10:16 AM)paullow Wrote: well, on an objective point of view, i think chou's real intention is not clear but in any case, the point is that chou is the main and largest shareholder and we need to ask ourselves, what's is his entry price in popular? maybe in region of 15c puls minus. with near 60% stake at average price of say $15c, even if he decides to go on buying spree and take popular to its NAV of 25c, i doubt his average price will hit 20c. whereas those who go in at 20-25c have to keep on guessing his intentions and keep their fingers cross in case chou chooses to leave things as such and the price may fall below 20c. that's where the painful part of those hopefuls who went in at 20-25c will feel.

that's my personal take on popular.

Chou's intention only forms part of the investment merits of Popular. The other merits of Popular that had been spelt out repeatedly in this thread are much more critical in assessing the attractiveness of Popular.

I seriously do not mind that Chou decides to take the throttle off Popular and let the price falls.
Neither do I mind if he continues to accumulate.

With the kind of bookstore/stationary/assessments/socks/shoes/bags/toys network, it is almost like a monopoly in Singapore.
No one in the right mind will start a bookstore chain to compete with Popular. I wouldn't. The margin is terrible and the overhead cost is high.

The only possible competitor is the supermarkets if they decide that they shall also sell the same merchandise as Popular. But, since the margin is low, they might as well sell other more profitable items.

Online bookstore is another threat but we had yet to see a successful model in Singapore.

Good summary!
Oops.. Danger! Danger! I think we may have fallen into the effects of 'Group Think'!

But, IMO, the perspectives of 'paullow' is one that's largely based on just the share price alone. More of a trader focus?

From 20ct onwards, my observation is that Popular Hldgs may have come into the radar screen of traders. Every bid now is 0.5ct, which is ~2.5% and rather good profits for a short term trader. That's why every once in a while, you'd see a sudden jump in price and volume (on those days Old Man is not buying) before it settles down after a day or two. Looks very much like a 'pump-and-dump' operation by the bigger players. But, somehow, the share price of Popular Hldgs has so far, refused to settle back to it's original lower prices.

The current share price behaviour is also highly suspicious - every AM before mkt open, 1 lot done at $0.225 and near 5pm close, some trades at $0.225. Maybe a Fund Mgr need to maintain it at $0.225 (or higher) for mth end close??

My take is that compared to 3mths back, there're a lot more different kinds of players in Popular Hldgs shares - Old Man, Value Investors, Traders, Fund(?), ??? now. More interesting and exciting, eh?

(30-07-2012, 10:16 AM)paullow Wrote: well, on an objective point of view, i think chou's real intention is not clear but in any case, the point is that chou is the main and largest shareholder and we need to ask ourselves, what's is his entry price in popular? maybe in region of 15c puls minus. with near 60% stake at average price of say $15c, even if he decides to go on buying spree and take popular to its NAV of 25c, i doubt his average price will hit 20c. whereas those who go in at 20-25c have to keep on guessing his intentions and keep their fingers cross in case chou chooses to leave things as such and the price may fall below 20c. that's where the painful part of those hopefuls who went in at 20-25c will feel.

that's my personal take on popular.

That prospective is true only for those who choose to invest in Popular now and they are indeed valid one.

For many of us who have been vested in Popular for a long time, I dare say our ave price would be in the low tens. I've been vested since its IPO and my ave is ard 13c. So we may not feel the pain if the price does go below 20c.

However even at current price, I think dydx has already make a strong case for investing in Popular.

yes,

I agree with at the current price, it's perhaps more of a traders trading. my guess would be most of the value seekers have gone in at earlier prices, well below the NAV.
but could we ask ourselves in reality, how many are traders forced into holding positions involuntarily.

and if popular price goes up alls well and people who went in now are smiling their way to bank, but if the reverse happens, how many so called true value investors can take paper losses with a pinch of salt and sleep as soundly as nothing happened.

it's just human psychology. how many people can actually suffer paper losses and behave as though nothing has happened.(myself included).

(30-07-2012, 03:37 PM)paullow Wrote: yes,

I agree with at the current price, it's perhaps more of a traders trading. my guess would be most of the value seekers have gone in at earlier prices, well below the NAV.
but could we ask ourselves in reality, how many are traders forced into holding positions involuntarily.

and if popular price goes up alls well and people who went in now are smiling their way to bank, but if the reverse happens, how many so called true value investors can take paper losses with a pinch of salt and sleep as soundly as nothing happened.

it's just human psychology. how many people can actually suffer paper losses and behave as though nothing has happened.(myself included).

I remembered you posting in another thread (I think the $1Mil retire at 35 one) that you're achieving $60k / yr (or more?) from stocks investing. If that's the case, you must have your own methods that worked for you.

How about sharing with us, if you were to apply your methods, at what price you'd buy/sell Popular Hldgs shares and the reasons?

In my case, I'd already posted my reasons over several pages of this thread. I'm also not selling yet as I subscribe to this saying,

Price is What You Pay,
Value is What You Get

At this point in time, I don't believe the market Price has caught up with the Value yet. If Prices were to drop, yes, I'd most likely be losing sleep but for a different reason - How many more to buy? Will it rebound too fast? etc. and etc... I'll of course have to continue to analyse their results as and when it's released for more clues...

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(26-07-2012, 02:07 PM)KopiKat Wrote: Notable trade today,

10:24:57 0.220 20,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 50,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 50,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 10,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 50,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 30,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 10,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 100,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 20,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 30,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 20,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 30,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 9,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 11,000 Buy Up

See the same time? Total 440lots @ $0.22 at one go... Guess who?? Not me, I have enough to keep me awake at night for now...

Confirm it's Old Man again, but total = 540 lots
See SGX Annc

Also, another 141,000 on 27-Jul, see SGX Annc

For today, I did noticed a few big buys. Most likely same as above. But, as promised, will not be too engrossed in posting such data in the forum.

im view, i will give buy deeply at 60-70% nav of popular to give myself my assigned margin of safety. so for me i missed the popular boat already. downside limited then by dividends. protect downside, the rest is for one to enjoy.