Popular Holdings

Old man back in action. No wonder the 'cheese' suddenly moved, no more $0.205 or lower to collect!

SGX Annc

1,929,000 Shares @ $0.218 on 18-Jul-12

Is $0.205 one of the highest prices - after Popular's share price had been marked/adjusted downwards by (1) a 1-for-2 rights issue at $0.10/share in Dec08, and (2) another 3-for-10 rights issue at $0.13/share in Jan10 - paid by Chairman Chou Cheng Ngok in recent years? If so, what's he up to by paying a higher price to raise his stake to 56.67% now?

Since Chou's son is not interested in running Popular's businesses, is it possible that the old man could be considering an exit plan? I wonder who could be interested in Popular's businesses?

(20-07-2012, 08:17 PM)dydx Wrote: Is $0.205 one of the highest prices - after Popular's share price had been marked/adjusted downwards by (1) a 1-for-2 rights issue at $0.10/share in Dec08, and (2) another 3-for-10 rights issue at $0.13/share in Jan10 - paid by Chairman Chou Cheng Ngok in recent years? If so, what's he up to by paying a higher price to raise his stake to 56.67% now?

Since Chou's son is not interested in running Popular's businesses, is it possible that the old man could be considering an exit plan? I wonder who could be interested in Popular's businesses?

Yes, I'd been pondering on the same Q...

From the data to 2008, the highest he ever paid was on 15-May-08 for 30,000 shares @ $0.295. Using this figure and adjust for the 2 rights gives 20.69ct. So, I supposed if he was willing to pay that kind of price in 2008 for a co. with PE closer to 10 and Debts > Cash, then at current PE < 6 and Cash > Debts (13.67ct / share Nett of Debts), he must be thinking it's an even better deal @ $0.218 (highest recent buy). So, yes, RELATIVE to what he was willing to pay in 2008, current prices is still a lot more attractive.

Another way to look at it. Based on $0.215 closing price and the shares not under his control, he'll need ~$78Mil+ to buy up all. Pay $78Mil to have 100% control + flexibility over ~$146Mil cash, good idea or not?

Recent buys,

[wrap]
[table=Date]
18-Jul-12
29-May-12
23-May-12
18-May-12
16-May-12
11-May-12
5-Apr-12
30-Mar-12
[/table]
[table=Qty]
1,929,000
357,000
3,098,000
1,796,000
4,935,000
256,000
250,000
3,173,000
[/table]
[table=Price]
$0.218
$0.199
$0.191
$0.185
$0.188
$0.182
$0.179
$0.17741
[/table] [/wrap]

Privatisation is also a possibility. But, IMO, more to keep it within the family. No need to face shareholders or answer to them, dirty laundry don't get washed in public - eg. can drag his son back, chain him to his chair or lock him in the MD office till he agrees to stay and take over... and no one (no shareholders) would be there to voice any objections. Sorry, just my imaginations running wild..

Can anyone think of anyone else who'd be keen to buy over? F&N (to expand their Times Publishing biz)? But, their own future now seems full of uncertainty, so unlikely. SPH? But, they're more focussed on defending their adverts biz and on Malls, also very slim possibility. Perhaps some Thai, Malaysian, Indonesian,... tycoon??

I'd definitely be very disappointed if he did a G.O. With NAV = 25.09ct, I doubt that a G.O. price will be significantly attractive to me. Sorry, I'm greedy, only interested in ThomsonMed kind of offer...

(20-07-2012, 08:17 PM)dydx Wrote: Is $0.205 one of the highest prices - after Popular's share price had been marked/adjusted downwards by (1) a 1-for-2 rights issue at $0.10/share in Dec08, and (2) another 3-for-10 rights issue at $0.13/share in Jan10 - paid by Chairman Chou Cheng Ngok in recent years? If so, what's he up to by paying a higher price to raise his stake to 56.67% now?

Since Chou's son is not interested in running Popular's businesses, is it possible that the old man could be considering an exit plan? I wonder who could be interested in Popular's businesses?

So obvious its SPH. Much synergies between the 2.

(21-07-2012, 12:36 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote:

(20-07-2012, 08:17 PM)dydx Wrote: Since Chou's son is not interested in running Popular's businesses, is it possible that the old man could be considering an exit plan? I wonder who could be interested in Popular's businesses?

So obvious its SPH. Much synergies between the 2.

Would F&N/Times Pub be interested?

(22-07-2012, 01:07 PM)touzi Wrote:

(21-07-2012, 12:36 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote:

(20-07-2012, 08:17 PM)dydx Wrote: Since Chou's son is not interested in running Popular's businesses, is it possible that the old man could be considering an exit plan? I wonder who could be interested in Popular's businesses?

So obvious its SPH. Much synergies between the 2.

Would F&N/Times Pub be interested?

Oh, the son is not interested in running Popular's business?
Is this a fact?

(22-07-2012, 01:46 PM)orang Wrote:

(22-07-2012, 01:07 PM)touzi Wrote:

(21-07-2012, 12:36 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote:

(20-07-2012, 08:17 PM)dydx Wrote: Since Chou's son is not interested in running Popular's businesses, is it possible that the old man could be considering an exit plan? I wonder who could be interested in Popular's businesses?

So obvious its SPH. Much synergies between the 2.

Would F&N/Times Pub be interested?

Oh, the son is not interested in running Popular's business?
Is this a fact?

I guess this conclusion may be based on SGX Annc dated 7-Sep-11,

Wayne Chou
Cessation as Managing Director of the Company and re-designation from Executive Director to Non-Executive Director of the Company to pursue his other personal interests


or if you prefer a more juicy version from asiaone,

Sources told the paper that the fallout was a long time coming. According to the source, the younger Mr Chou did not get along with the older members of staff who were hired by his father, and started hiring staff of his own.

Allegedly, the dissatisfaction became apparent during the appraisal season last year, with three members of its senior staff resigning soon after.

An industry player who declined to be named told The Sunday Times: 'I knew Wayne when he took over as managing director, and he has always been very professional,' he said. 'But father-and-son relationships are always complicated.'


How things changed within a short span of 1yr+. From AR2010 (pg7),

2010 marks an important milestone in the history of POPULAR. The functions of Chairman and Managing Director are separated with the appointment of Wayne Chou as Managing Director. Assuming an executive role, Wayne Chou will take on the CEO role in phases. Wayne’s management experience and exposure in media and related industries will add to our talent pool. It will generate dynamism, raise energy level and build new capabilities.


My take is that it's not easy to work under Old Man. Most likely, he works 24/7 and expects his snr mgmt staff (esp. his son) to follow his way. See how often they change their CFO (every 1-2yrs). BUT, I don't see it as the son being not interested in running Popular's biz...

(22-07-2012, 01:07 PM)touzi Wrote:

(21-07-2012, 12:36 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote:

(20-07-2012, 08:17 PM)dydx Wrote: Since Chou's son is not interested in running Popular's businesses, is it possible that the old man could be considering an exit plan? I wonder who could be interested in Popular's businesses?

So obvious its SPH. Much synergies between the 2.

Would F&N/Times Pub be interested?

Since there appears to be a 'Closing Down Sale' at F&N, I think a better idea would be for Popular Hldgs to go offer for the 'Printing & Publishing' biz. CIMB gave a SOTP value of $258Mil, maybe can ask for discount since there's no synergy with ThaiBev + Kirin core biz and they can easily be motivated to sell it?

Hey! Married deal,

14:34:53 0.216 900,000 X

Old Man in action? His last action was on 18-Jul at avg $0.218 for 1929 lots (but open market).

(24-07-2012, 02:38 PM)KopiKat Wrote: Hey! Married deal,

14:34:53 0.216 900,000 X

Old Man in action? His last action was on 18-Jul at avg $0.218 for 1929 lots (but open market).

Yup! It's him again. SGX Annc today.