Popular Holdings

Incredible how a book company turned developer managed to amass so much funds in its reserve.

(24-06-2012, 12:21 AM)KopiKat Wrote:

(23-06-2012, 09:02 PM)orang Wrote: What may be relevant is that operating margin has firm up from 3.1% in FY11 and 2.2% for the year before that.

And the question - What is driving the margin?

Looking at the segmental breakdown,

FY11 improvement to OM was driven mainly by their 'Retail & Distribution' where Operating Profit jumped from $10.925M (FY10) to $19.133M (FY11) and to a lower extent by 'Publishing / e-Learning'. If I remove the impairment from 'Property Development', it was providing a drag to OM.

As for FY12 9mths to date, improvement to OM is now mainly driven by 'Property Development' and to a lower extent by 'Retail & Distribution'.

Looking at the figures over the years, 'Retail & Distribution' Operating Profit bottomed in FY09 and had more than doubled for FY10 and almost doubled again for FY11. 'Publishing / e-Learning' looks volatile but remains profitable. 'Property Development' only started contributing positively from FY10 and is only slightly positive for FY11 (after removing the impairment writeback) but will likely be volatile going forward as they lack the critical mass.

Looking at the REVENUE (not profit) breakdown by Geographical Segements for the past 5 years,

[wrap]
[table=Year]
FY12
FY11
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
[/table]
[table=Singapore]
258,940
253,332
264,414
216,304
200,723
179,968
[/table]
[table=Malaysia]
212,690
164,577
144,240
130,538
125,441
107,650
[/table]
[table=Greater China]
93,014
101,205
105,133
101,340
106,342
109,288
[/table]
[table=Others]
2,608
3,326
861
2,135
2,489
1,329
[/table]
[table=Turnover]
567,252
522,440
514,648
450,317
434,995
396,235
[/table][/wrap]

Some observations,

1. Malaysia Growth ~98%
2. Singapore Growth ~ 44%
3. Greater China Decline ~-15%

I'm most inclined to think that the Profit Growth (even tho' above figures are for Revenue) for the past 3 years is very likely driven mainly by their Malaysia Operations of 'Retail & Distribution' ie Book Stores(?). Looks like currently in growth/expansionary phase?

Singapore figures includes Property, so, the growth doesn't look as impressive to me. It may indicate that the market here for 'Retail & Distribution' is hitting a Matured (no Growth) stage . That's why they have to think of new concepts like Harris (dead?), UrbanWrite, Prologue, Epilogue, Properties...

Greater China (HK, Taiwan, China) doesn't appear to have lived up to expectations. Market too competitive? Unfamiliarity?

Perhaps Old Man should relocate to Malaysia from HK/China...

---

The above can be found in Chairman's Statement from AR11 (last year). Extracts,

POPULAR is still strong in its core businesses. Amidst an uncertain but a recovering global economy, our retail and distribution was the star performer, achieving 75% increase in profits from S$10.9 million to S$19.1 million. With 14 new outlets opened, the total number of outlets reached 139 compared to 133 in FY2010. Turnover grew by 5% from S$418.4 million to S$438.8 million in FY2011.

POPULAR in Malaysia achieved double digit growth for its retail and distribution. With 65 stores, the search for new stores and the business expansion should continue unabated for quite a while. The bottom line should look attractive through gross margin improvement, prudent spending and strong growth in both generic and organic sales. The challenge is to recruit adequate and appropriate manpower by thinking out of the box and developing strategies in recruitment. We have to understand the mentality of the new Generation Y and to manage them within the context of POPULAR, planning career paths to develop staff at all levels.

POPULAR in Singapore could not just depend on a well-recognized brand. Though its new outlets at NEX, a new mega-mall in Serangoon Central and another in Clementi Mall are bringing in exciting sales, it has to make a breakthrough in order to rise. Looking at the book retailing scene in Singapore, everyone faces the same situation.

(06-07-2012, 10:16 PM)KopiKat Wrote:

(24-06-2012, 12:21 AM)KopiKat Wrote:

(23-06-2012, 09:02 PM)orang Wrote: What may be relevant is that operating margin has firm up from 3.1% in FY11 and 2.2% for the year before that.

And the question - What is driving the margin?

Looking at the segmental breakdown,

FY11 improvement to OM was driven mainly by their 'Retail & Distribution' where Operating Profit jumped from $10.925M (FY10) to $19.133M (FY11) and to a lower extent by 'Publishing / e-Learning'. If I remove the impairment from 'Property Development', it was providing a drag to OM.

As for FY12 9mths to date, improvement to OM is now mainly driven by 'Property Development' and to a lower extent by 'Retail & Distribution'.

Looking at the figures over the years, 'Retail & Distribution' Operating Profit bottomed in FY09 and had more than doubled for FY10 and almost doubled again for FY11. 'Publishing / e-Learning' looks volatile but remains profitable. 'Property Development' only started contributing positively from FY10 and is only slightly positive for FY11 (after removing the impairment writeback) but will likely be volatile going forward as they lack the critical mass.

Looking at the REVENUE (not profit) breakdown by Geographical Segements for the past 5 years,

[wrap]
[table=Year]
FY12
FY11
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
[/table]
[table=Singapore]
258,940
253,332
264,414
216,304
200,723
179,968
[/table]
[table=Malaysia]
212,690
164,577
144,240
130,538
125,441
107,650
[/table]
[table=Greater China]
93,014
101,205
105,133
101,340
106,342
109,288
[/table]
[table=Others]
2,608
3,326
861
2,135
2,489
1,329
[/table]
[table=Turnover]
567,252
522,440
514,648
450,317
434,995
396,235
[/table][/wrap]

Some observations,

1. Malaysia Growth ~98%
2. Singapore Growth ~ 44%
3. Greater China Decline ~-15%

I'm most inclined to think that the Profit Growth (even tho' above figures are for Revenue) for the past 3 years is very likely driven mainly by their Malaysia Operations of 'Retail & Distribution' ie Book Stores(?). Looks like currently in growth/expansionary phase?

Singapore figures includes Property, so, the growth doesn't look as impressive to me. It may indicate that the market here for 'Retail & Distribution' is hitting a Matured (no Growth) stage . That's why they have to think of new concepts like Harris (dead?), UrbanWrite, Prologue, Epilogue, Properties...

Greater China (HK, Taiwan, China) doesn't appear to have lived up to expectations. Market too competitive? Unfamiliarity?

Perhaps Old Man should relocate to Malaysia from HK/China...

---

The above can be found in Chairman's Statement from AR11 (last year). Extracts,

POPULAR is still strong in its core businesses. Amidst an uncertain but a recovering global economy, our retail and distribution was the star performer, achieving 75% increase in profits from S$10.9 million to S$19.1 million. With 14 new outlets opened, the total number of outlets reached 139 compared to 133 in FY2010. Turnover grew by 5% from S$418.4 million to S$438.8 million in FY2011.

POPULAR in Malaysia achieved double digit growth for its retail and distribution. With 65 stores, the search for new stores and the business expansion should continue unabated for quite a while. The bottom line should look attractive through gross margin improvement, prudent spending and strong growth in both generic and organic sales. The challenge is to recruit adequate and appropriate manpower by thinking out of the box and developing strategies in recruitment. We have to understand the mentality of the new Generation Y and to manage them within the context of POPULAR, planning career paths to develop staff at all levels.

POPULAR in Singapore could not just depend on a well-recognized brand. Though its new outlets at NEX, a new mega-mall in Serangoon Central and another in Clementi Mall are bringing in exciting sales, it has to make a breakthrough in order to rise. Looking at the book retailing scene in Singapore, everyone faces the same situation.

Undoubtedly Malaysia is the jewel. Revenue growth is phenomenal. Did a backtrack and found that in 2004 the Malaysian revenue was just one
half of Singapore's. Now it is just a whisker below Singapore i.e if you take away the property revenue. Singapore, on the other hand has slowed to a trot managing revenue increase of 3 million each year in the last two years.

Back to the present. retail and distrbution remains the core contributor to profits at 73% and grew a stellar 52% not as spectacular as the 75% in 2011 but still impressive

How much of a drive is the Malaysian market is a little tricky since the geographical segment is silent on profitability.

Which leaves us with the question of OM? Can the latest rate sustain and ride the continuing revenue growth trend? If can then Bingo!

So is there growth to be considered a growth stock?

(08-07-2012, 09:05 PM)orang Wrote: Undoubtedly Malaysia is the jewel. Revenue growth is phenomenal. Did a backtrack and found that in 2004 the Malaysian revenue was just one
half of Singapore's. Now it is just a whisker below Singapore i.e if you take away the property revenue. Singapore, on the other hand has slowed to a trot managing revenue increase of 3 million each year in the last two years.

Back to the present. retail and distrbution remains the core contributor to profits at 73% and grew a stellar 52% not as spectacular as the 75% in 2011 but still impressive

How much of a drive is the Malaysian market is a little tricky since the geographical segment is silent on profitability.

Which leaves us with the question of OM? Can the latest rate sustain and ride the continuing revenue growth trend? If can then Bingo!

So is there growth to be considered a growth stock?

Haha.. spending some time over the weekends trying to analyse the AR11 statement,

business expansion should continue unabated for quite a while.

and checking Malaysia stores locations from Popular Malaysia website, the top 4 locations,

Selangor = 16
Penang = 8
KL = 8
JB = 8

against their Demographics from wiki

and wondering how many more stores they can open in Malaysia. Ya, I think business expansion should continue unabated for quite a while (copy from AR11 statement)..
BUT, yes, ultimately, bottomline growth is what matters and so far, I have not found any supporting financials. Anyway, can now sleep a bit better altho' I don't know what my itchy fingers will do next to cause me to lose sleep again...

After reading the financial statements and reading all the above well-researched posts.
Bought @$0.205.
Hope for the best.

(08-07-2012, 09:58 PM)KopiKat Wrote: Haha.. spending some time over the weekends trying to analyse the AR11 statement,

business expansion should continue unabated for quite a while.

and checking Malaysia stores locations from Popular Malaysia website, the top 4 locations,

Selangor = 16
Penang = 8
KL = 8
JB = 8

against their Demographics from wiki

and wondering how many more stores they can open in Malaysia. Ya, I think business expansion should continue unabated for quite a while (copy from AR11 statement)..
BUT, yes, ultimately, bottomline growth is what matters and so far, I have not found any supporting financials. Anyway, can now sleep a bit better altho' I don't know what my itchy fingers will do next to cause me to lose sleep again...

Your enthusiasm on Malaysia is infectious wat.

Ok I follow you Malaysia boleh as I realised that the Executive Director - Ms Lim Lee Ngoh - joined the Malaysian company in 1986
and is still running the operations there. Steady hands so the expansion should continue...business as usual. No need for old man to relocate to Malaysia

Anyway you pay 20.5 cents and what do you get?
a) 17 cents cash
b) the rest of the company for 3.5 cents

Ken

also can
Then every year can still get 1.3 to 1.5 cents

(09-07-2012, 02:12 PM)orang Wrote: Your enthusiasm on Malaysia is infectious wat.

Ok I follow you Malaysia boleh as I realised that the Executive Director - Ms Lim Lee Ngoh - joined the Malaysian company in 1986
and is still running the operations there. Steady hands so the expansion should continue...business as usual. No need for old man to relocate to Malaysia

Anyway you pay 20.5 cents and what do you get?
a) 17 cents cash
b) the rest of the company for 3.5 cents

Ken

also can
Then every year can still get 1.3 to 1.5 cents

On a day where STI is -43pts now, both of you must be providing the price support @ $0.205! I collected some more last week (blame on my itchy fingers) and was hoping to get more this week only if it's lower. Will wait patiently...

Outstanding checklist for me is to try to get a peek of their Malaysia accounts but not urgent for now. Ideas currently in my head are,

1) Ask nicely from their IR either during AGM or pop in to their Toh Tuck Rd office
2) Buy the accounts from Malaysia version of ACRA - I think it's SSM but don't see any option to do such purchase. Also have to wait till FY12 accounts are filed

(09-07-2012, 04:22 PM)KopiKat Wrote: On a day where STI is -43pts now, both of you must be providing the price support @ $0.205! I collected some more last week (blame on my itchy fingers) and was hoping to get more this week only if it's lower. Will wait patiently...

Outstanding checklist for me is to try to get a peek of their Malaysia accounts but not urgent for now. Ideas currently in my head are,

1) Ask nicely from their IR either during AGM or pop in to their Toh Tuck Rd office
2) Buy the accounts from Malaysia version of ACRA - I think it's SSM but don't see any option to do such purchase. Also have to wait till FY12 accounts are filed

Ya ka? You flatter me man! Me no market shaker also cannot support market. Me small fly!

On a serious note my allocation for Popular has been taken up. Wait get indigestion. Like you said wait till AR2012 is out to see the audited figures.

One question you can ask at the AGM is the breakdown of the increase in retail outlets from 139 to 148.

The answer should give us the Malaysian figure. It is quite relevant because the only time (ever?) a breakdown is given (Singapore 62 Malaysia 65 Hongkong 12) is in fy11 sgx filing.

Interesting to know how the answer is delivered.

Oh yes, generally I do not attend AGM

(10-07-2012, 10:23 AM)orang Wrote: One question you can ask at the AGM is the breakdown of the increase in retail outlets from 139 to 148.

The answer should give us the Malaysian figure. It is quite relevant because the only time (ever?) a breakdown is given (Singapore 62 Malaysia 65 Hongkong 12) is in fy11 sgx filing.

Interesting to know how the answer is delivered.

Oh yes, generally I do not attend AGM

Same here, I have yet to attend a single AGM... I'll try to find some time for this case as it's now quite a high % of my pie.

I went to count from the Popular Malaysia website under 'Store Locator'. Total = 72 but that may include additional new stores opened after FY12 (Apr). Let's see if they put this figures in FY12 AR 1st.

KL 8
Johor 8
Kedah 6
Kelantan 1
Melaka 5
Negri 3
Pahang 2
Penang 8
Perak 5
Perlis 0
Sabah 3
Sarawak 6
Selangor 16
Tregannu 1

Will be putting this stock in my 'freezer' for the time being unless there're any new devts...

(10-07-2012, 10:43 AM)KopiKat Wrote:

(10-07-2012, 10:23 AM)orang Wrote: One question you can ask at the AGM is the breakdown of the increase in retail outlets from 139 to 148.

The answer should give us the Malaysian figure. It is quite relevant because the only time (ever?) a breakdown is given (Singapore 62 Malaysia 65 Hongkong 12) is in fy11 sgx filing.

Interesting to know how the answer is delivered.

Oh yes, generally I do not attend AGM

Same here, I have yet to attend a single AGM... I'll try to find some time for this case as it's now quite a high % of my pie.

I went to count from the Popular Malaysia website under 'Store Locator'. Total = 72 but that may include additional new stores opened after FY12 (Apr). Let's see if they put this figures in FY12 AR 1st.

KL 8
Johor 8
Kedah 6
Kelantan 1
Melaka 5
Negri 3
Pahang 2
Penang 8
Perak 5
Perlis 0
Sabah 3
Sarawak 6
Selangor 16
Tregannu 1

Will be putting this stock in my 'freezer' for the time being unless there're any new devts...

Wow! You are great! Instant results like a mobile satellite dish. Thanks man!

Does seems the green shoot of growth is discernible. Ya, maybe should upgrade my classification and allocation. Here, I think we differ in some ways in managing our portfolios.