Penguin International

(12-04-2021, 09:10 AM)¯|_(ツ)_/¯ Wrote: This was announced last Friday:
Date of acquisition of or change in interest: 01-Apr-2021

KS Investments Pte. Ltd ("KSI") became aware on 9 April 2021 of the date of change in interest in the Listed Issuer after it sighted a CDP letter, which was received in the afternoon of 8 April 2021, notifying of the change arising from the acceptance of the voluntary cash offer made by Emet Grace Ltd for the Listed Issuer.

The date of change (sold) was 1st Apr 2021 and the changes was noted in CDP letter. Likely the change was made sometime around week 22nd Mar 2021 (similiar to me).

Excellent point! 

There was a significant increase in the acceptance level from 66,361,152 to 82,976,864 on 24 Mar. So that could have easily accounted for Keppel's 13,744,583 shares.

If that is indeed true, then the reported 78.15% (as of 09 Apr) would have included Keppel's stake. 

So maybe, it won't be as close as we think after all.

8 trading days till Final Close of Offer.

I have done nothing so far. Nothing to do, do nothing.
The first and most impt factor is that I value the company at >65c, so just hold. Sell now and hope to buy back later at lower price? I have better chances by doing nothing than trying to guess when and how much to buy back. If they manage to force me to sell and delist, nothing I can do.
Shareholders willing to pay >65c will have done so (as we seen today). Shareholders who wants to sell at 65c will also do so before the close of this offer. The rest of the shareholders are mostly long term ones who do not accept 65c given the info available today. Hence after the offer closes, the share price will simply go nowhere. There will be little volume. Its back to the fundamentals from there on, or if the mgmt decides to take any major action.

PIL 12Apr2021 78.17%

Thanks again for the kind sharing by everyone.
Thank you.

First and foremost, PIL is a sound company with brilliant brains.
It's business model is prudent with evidence that it survived the current O&G downturn whereas it's competitors either fold-up or deeply underwater.

J&J had demonstrated exceptional business acumen in anticipating what's hot, up-and-coming and managed to seize the opportunities again and again.

The question was not whether PIL is a good company.
Rather, the question was at what price PIL is worth buying (or keeping).

Given the current situation, likely the offer will lapse with J&J holding on to 88.8%, a bit shy of 90% for compulsory acquisition.

Obviously, we do not know or understand what J&J is doing between now and 21st Apr 2021, but I bet that either both already had their game plan already played out or they are busying deploying their game plan. 

Both are very smart people and both will try their best to get the 90% (which they deserved).

Unfortunately, the price is fixed at 65cents and they will not be able to shift up and the final closing date is already fixed and they could not extend further.

I wonder what could they do to achieve the 90% before 21st Apr 2021?

They could not increase the price nor shift the date. 
What could they do?

---

Nevermind. 
Let's forget about them.
They are so smart, they will figure out a way to increase their share ownship.

Let's focus on our game plan.

Looking back at 18 Dec 2020 7:31am Holding announcement:
notified by Jeffrey Hing Yih Peir (Executive Chairman) and James Tham Tuck Choong (Managing Director) that they are in non-binding discussions with a potential investor in relation to a possible transaction involving the shares in the Company. There is no certainty that any specific or definitive agreement will be entered into or that any transaction will materialise from the on-going discussions. 

Prior to the Holding announcement, PIL was trading below 50cents.
Of course, subsequently, NgKokWah came into the picture rather aggressively.
Price was just a bit shy of 65cents few days prior to the actual announcement and we know what happen next.
  
J&J really wanted to delist PIL (and I wish them luck).

Unfortunately, unless J&J could come up with another 12% in next 7 working days, their take over will fail and PIL will remain listed.

Without the takeover support price of 65cents, PIL share price will drop naturally due to the gravity aka without J&J buying.

How much will it drop?
Your guess is as good as mine.

I just know that PIL price will definitely drop below offer price.

Again, I don't know what price will it drop.

What I know is, when the price is good enough, I will definitely pick up some and wait patiently for the delist offers.

Meanwhile, enjoy the play and could wait to see what J&J can pull out in the next few days.

(11-04-2021, 12:39 PM)touzi Wrote:

(11-04-2021, 11:11 AM)weijian Wrote:

(10-04-2021, 12:51 PM)touzi Wrote: Rats ! They sure take a long time. I wonder what did J&J do to convince Keppel.

To be honest. It wasn't exactly hard to predict this. I don't think J&J had to do much, the institutional imperative was more prevalent IMHO.

https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3645...#pid160974

So what took them so long and after extension of deadline?

In theory, it is an extension. But in practice, if you have the intent to take something private, your effective date is not the "earlier" deadlines but the drop-dead date after utilizing all the extension. Buyers and sellers know that.

I had put the odds of Keppel accepting their offer at ~70%. In an alternate history (eg. the 30%), I would be wrong. Investing is probabilistic in nature.

My original speculation was off and ¯|_(ツ)_/¯  was correct about the delayed update of the resultant share holding.

Penguin has issued a reminder on the final closing date. And it confirms that as of 09 Apr, the resultant shareholding that the offeror has is 172,058,310 Shares, representing approximately 78.15%. This includes acceptances of the Offer received from KS Investments.

Full announcement: General Offer - Reminder on Final Closing Date

There was a measly 700 shares bought on the open market on 12 Apr and the resultant holding (including acceptance) was 172,096,842 (or 78.17%). There was no update for yesterday so presumably, no purchase from the open market was made.

There are 6 more trading days left and I will be very surprised if they managed anywhere near 85%.

Will there be another extension in the cards??

(20-04-2021, 06:58 AM)Reenat Wrote: Will there be another extension in the cards??

Impossible. They already announced this is the final extension and they have no intention of making further extension.

With 2 trading days left, the Offeror currently has 174,790,019 Shares (79.39%) as of 19 Apr.

I think it is safe to say that Penguin will remain listed.

So it is going to be "Win-win" for the Offeror and the remaining minority shareholders!

Up 4% so far, whoever stay on, congratulation, expect more to come

After some serious consideration and also taking into account all the inputs here (especially dydx), I am holding onto my Penguin shares. With Dymon Asia having a decent track record in their investments, I believe they can add value to the management as they now have their skin in the game to do well. Hopefully, they can extract some value out of those assets in Penguin so that minorities can also benefit.

But minorities holding on should not expect magic. The industry is still cyclical and you must have a long term view of the business, and not to be distracted by market noises. Penguin's stock vessel is still under pressure and they have to cut margins to move things. Also, liquidity will be low after the offer closes as free float had been reduced significantly.