Penguin International

(21-10-2019, 01:02 AM)Shiyi Wrote: Penguin is in a cyclical industry. I have held this stock for more than five years. Just barely break even now.
Perhaps we need to temper optimism with caution.

Just curious, since you liked what you saw more than 5 years ago, and presumably you appreciated and could accept Penguin's business being in a cyclical industry, did you consider taking advantage of the low prices (adjusted for the 3-into-1 share consolidation completed on 2Jun16) which fell to sub-$0.30 level during the period from Aug16 to early Oct17, to buy more shares? If you did, your situation could be very different now.

For sure, Penguin's business and product profiles have evolved and changed/improved by quite a bit during the last 5 years.

(21-10-2019, 05:34 AM)dydx Wrote:

(21-10-2019, 01:02 AM)Shiyi Wrote: Penguin is in a cyclical industry. I have held this stock for more than five years. Just barely break even now.
Perhaps we need to temper optimism with caution.

Just curious, since you liked what you saw more than 5 years ago, and presumably you appreciated and could accept Penguin's business being in a cyclical industry, did you consider taking advantage of the low prices (adjusted for the 3-into-1 share consolidation completed on 2Jun16) which fell to sub-$0.30 level during the period from Aug16 to early Oct17, to buy more shares? If you did, your situation could be very different now.

For sure, Penguin's business and product profiles have evolved and changed/improved by quite a bit during the last 5 years.

Penguin performance in terms of profitability and share price continued to slide after share consolidation.
To be honest, I had thought of cutting losses when oil and gas industry tanked. And just about when I thought of
averaging down, the news that the company invested in Marco Polo Marine put me off.

Nevertheless, I am happy with the recent performance of the share price. And looking to pare down my holding if it comes close to KayHian's target price. It has been a long wait.

I kind of agree with dydx views. If five years ago, we had this share investment at xx price, fast forward five years later..its still at xx price while its biz has evolved and in my view not so cyclical due to addition of security boats / flex fighters, etc. I am optimistic that it is a stronger Penguin now and its mgmt has shown that they can bring the company to greater heights and not sinking to oblivion as in other O&G companies like Ezion, Nam cheong and so many others.

(21-10-2019, 09:50 AM)Shiyi Wrote: Penguin performance in terms of profitability and share price continued to slide after share consolidation.
To be honest, I had thought of cutting losses when oil and gas industry tanked. And just about when I thought of
averaging down, the news that the company invested in Marco Polo Marine put me off.

Nevertheless, I am happy with the recent performance of the share price. And looking to pare down my holding if it comes close to KayHian's target price. It has been a long wait.

You could have followed too closely on the fall of share price and not enough on the management-directed evolution of the business during the last O&G industry downturn - which was unprecedented, and those companies which over-extended themselves or over-borrowed are now mostly dead or near to that. Because Penguin has been conservatively managed from before the industry downturn until now, the company has survived and now emerged stronger than before. So not all companies would suffer in the same way in an industry downturn, and those who can identify the stronger players would stand to profit handsomely by buying into them for the cheap in the depth of an industry downturn.  

(21-10-2019, 11:05 AM)dydx Wrote:

(21-10-2019, 09:50 AM)Shiyi Wrote: Penguin performance in terms of profitability and share price continued to slide after share consolidation.
To be honest, I had thought of cutting losses when oil and gas industry tanked. And just about when I thought of
averaging down, the news that the company invested in Marco Polo Marine put me off.

Nevertheless, I am happy with the recent performance of the share price. And looking to pare down my holding if it comes close to KayHian's target price. It has been a long wait.

You could have followed too closely on the fall of share price and not enough on the management-directed evolution of the business during the last O&G industry downturn - which was unprecedented, and those companies which over-extended themselves or over-borrowed are now mostly dead or near to that. Because Penguin has been conservatively managed from before the industry downturn until now, the company has survived and now emerged stronger than before. So not all companies would suffer in the same way in an industry downturn, and those who can identify the stronger players would stand to profit handsomely by buying into them for the cheap in the depth of an industry downturn.  

There's just been a rebound in OnG recently due to higher oil prices. If oil price drop back to 40ish level, can guarantee you share price will take a hit again. I can remember all the optimism few years back, no one believe when i said it could possibly drop to 10c level when oil prices get hit, and it did. This counter is just a bet on oil price, and as a volatile small cap the gains and losses are amplified. Management interest is not aligned with OPMI either. 

Sell now and wait till it tank back to 30c again would be my suggestion. Not a long term buy and hold proposition.

TRADE at your own risk....

(22-10-2019, 01:44 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: There's just been a rebound in OnG recently due to higher oil prices. If oil price drop back to 40ish level, can guarantee you share price will take a hit again. I can remember all the optimism few years back, no one believe when i said it could possibly drop to 10c level when oil prices get hit, and it did. This counter is just a bet on oil price, and as a volatile small cap the gains and losses are amplified. 

I am afraid your negative view does not reflect the reality. From mainly crew boats (Flex-36, 38, 40) before the last O&G industry downturn, Penguin now manufactures security boats, passenger ferries, fire boats, offshore wind farm support boats, patrol boats, etc., in higher volume than before. A few of its local competitors are either dead or near dead. Now Penguin also has an enlarged self-funded chartering division owning the latest crew boats (including the Flex-42X's) and passenger ferries, for chartering to the oil majors in the region and enjoying growing charter income.

On whether its time to sell... even though its doubled since a year back, this is not an indication of when I sell my holdings.

My strategy for investing is actually to average up when the growth follows through. This might be hard to swallow for most investors as that's always not the suggested strategy but that's what I would do. But i must maintain that the shares must be still undervalued from my perspective at that point of time! It did work really well once, but that does not happen all the time so just beware. I do find the psychological advantage of holding shares at a lower entry from prior purchases helpful.

Great set of 3rd qtr results. Penguin can fly afterall ???

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Penguin_3...eID=584717

(07-11-2019, 06:01 PM)mslee888 Wrote: Great set of 3rd qtr results. Penguin can fly afterall ???

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Penguin_3...eID=584717

Yes great set of results. Still showing that it can sell stock vessels well.

The improvement in chartering revenues is very impressive as well. And the cash pile continues to grow to $51.2m. On a market cap of 145.3m at the moment.

Good evening, every valuebuddies.
Hope you had a nice catch.

Today announcement is quite good and the question remains on when should we sell Penguin.

One valuebuddies says sell some when reached 85cents and most valuebuddies prefers not to sell yet.

My thinking process is rather simple.
We need to sell some point in time.
Question is what's the trigger point to sell?
Just for discussion sake, ok?

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Anyway, I like what I see.
This is it:

Description   3months(Q3)           9months (3Q)
Rev           19m -> 29m   +47%     65m -> 97m  +48%
GP             6m -> 10m   +52%     19m -> 29m  +48%
NP           0.6m -> 5.6m +739%      6m -> 14m +120%

EPS  0.30 cents ->  2.53 cents  
NAV 69.14 cents -> 74.38 cents  

The most important number is actually cash.
Cash increase from $10m to $25m and debt is paring  down fast!

Just a reminder that this is  a Q3 result.
Q4 result likely to be positive.
With a little bit of imagination, we can derived the EPS, NAV as well as dividend for the full year result
.... to be announced in another 3 months time.

Couldn't wait to see the annual result and the dividend announcements.
By that time, the PE and PB ratio will be very different from now too.


Enjoy:

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感恩 Really appreciate all valuebuddies for helping me.