North Korea

(17-04-2017, 02:41 PM)bmann025 Wrote: Well, not so hard to connect the dots:

......

If the hypothesis is that there is one big neocon conspiracy to contain China and show folks who's boss, it seems pretty weird that they have driven the Russian Bear directly into the embrace of the Chinese Dragon with their activities in Ukraine.

XJP's trip to Florida is notable for its lack of details. But the fact is Trump has accepted the invitation for a state visit to China and the American and Chinese leadership have been in close contact with regards to NK affair, Trump decided not to call China a currency manipulator etc. IMHO, a deal has been struck, just that they don't wanna tell us the details till they're ready.

Look at it from all the different points of view.

The North Korea leader wants nuclear weapons, with a reasonable chance of hitting the US, to guard against "regime change".  After Iraq, this is a necessity.  And maybe to guard against China too (how would a paranoid Great Leader think...China is the only other foreign power capable of removing him).  If 'nuclear weapons' equals a 'guarantee of survival', it is non negotiable.

The US itself is not threatened by NK.  If they were to launch a few missiles at the US, NK would no longer exist.  Dear Great Leader only acts crazy, he is not suicidal.

Once Japan is within reach of a large enough number of North Korean missiles, there is no reliable defence.  Except for getting their own nukes.  Especially given the bad blood between these countries, and given that NK has previously launched a missile over Japan.  If I was the Japanese govt, I would have considered under what situations I would develop nukes, and maybe communicated my 'red line' to China and the US.  If the US nuclear umbrella is in doubt, Taiwan and South Korea need nukes too.  Again, nuclear weapons are a guarantee of survival.  We have not needed them for the past 50 years because the US gives it.

So China has a great incentive not to want this.  Since a lot of the above nukes will be pointed at Beijing.  Most likely Xi has some sort of agreement with Trump.  But I don't know how this will work out.  How do you negotiate with someone to get them to remove their guarantee of survival?

Nukes work only against leaders who cares about his people, and not just his own survival

China's frustration towards NK had been leaked through wikileak. If this chess piece is giving China too much problem it will be dealt with. I'm not sure if Kim Understands this dynamics or like a spoils child he thinks NK is indispensable and entitled to the protection

Optimally I think a unified Korea with US out of the peninsula is the ideal solution given the circumstances

South Korea on heightened alert as isolated North readies for army celebration

By Ju-min Park and Ben Blanchard
Fri Apr 21, 2017 | 12:37am EDT

South Korea said on Friday it was on heightened alert ahead of another important anniversary in North Korea, with a large concentration of military hardware amassed on both sides of the border amid concerns about a new nuclear test by Pyongyang.

U.S. officials said there was a higher-than-usual level of activity by Chinese bombers, signaling a possible heightened state of readiness by Beijing, reclusive North Korea's sole major ally, although the officials played down concerns and left open a range of possible reasons.

U.S. and South Korean officials have been saying for weeks that the North could soon stage another nuclear test in violation of United Nations sanctions, something both the United States and China have warned against.

More details in http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northk...SKBN17N0CE

North Korea Would Talk to U.S. If Conditions Right, Yonhap Says

by Hooyeon Kim
May 13, 2017, 3:55 PM GMT+8

A senior North Korean official said his country would be willing to talk to the U.S. government if conditions were right, according to South Korean news agency Yonhap.

Choe Sun-hui, director general for North American affairs at North Korea’s foreign ministry, made the comment to reporters in Beijing, Yonhap reported Saturday.

The remarks follow comments by U.S. President Donald Trump that he would be “honored” to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un under the right conditions. Trump has also pledged to consider all options to rein in Kim’s nuclear-arms ambitions.

“To say ‘under right conditions’ basically means they won’t talk now,” said Shin Beomchul, a research fellow at Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. “The remark is definitely a bit softer in tone compared to the past when the North would’ve said no to talks unless the U.S. acknowledges them as a nuclear power. ”

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/artic...onhap-says

North Korea Says New Missile Can Carry 'Large' Nuclear Warhead

by Kanga Kong
May 15, 2017, 8:27 AM GMT+8 Updated on May 15, 2017, 12:18 PM GMT+8

North Korea boasted on Monday that its new rocket could carry a “large-size heavy nuclear warhead” over long distances, with analysts estimating that it could reach U.S. military forces on the island of Guam.

Kim Jong Un witnessed Sunday’s launch of the “new ground-to-ground medium long-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12,” the official Korean Central News Agency said. It was fired at a steep trajectory “in consideration of the security of neighboring countries,” reaching an altitude of 2,111.5 kilometers (1,312 miles) before hitting open waters 787 kilometers away, KCNA said.

Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said the latest test shows Kim is “in a state of paranoia” and that Washington will “continue to tighten the screws” on his regime. The launch defies UN sanctions and provides an early challenge for South Korea’s new leader, Moon Jae-in, who has vowed to engage with the regime to bring peace to the peninsula.

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/artic...ar-warhead

North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile, Drawing Ire of Neighbors

by Kanga Kong  and Hooyeon Kim
May 29, 2017, 5:41 AM GMT+8 Updated on May 29, 2017, 10:14 AM GMT+8

North Korea conducted another missile test early Monday, drawing condemnation from South Korea and Japan just days after world leaders vowed to take tougher measures against Kim Jong Un’s nuclear weapons development.

The missile, which appears to be a Scud variant, was fired at 5:39 a.m. from Wonsan off North Korea’s east coast and flew 450 kilometers (280 miles) toward Japan, according to South Korean military officials. It may have reached waters in Japan’s exclusive economic zone, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said.

The test -- the ninth this year -- came two days after the Group of Seven nations pledged to “strengthen measures” aimed at prompting North Korea to cease nuclear and ballistic missile tests. World leaders are grappling with how to halt provocations by the isolated nation, with South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in seeking engagement while U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe take a harder line.

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/artic...outh-korea

Has a deal been made?

Why is US all quiet now and NK continues to fire missiles every other week?

^^US has been TOO quiet... even on twitter. I suspect they are waiting for China to do something. In the past week it seems US or Trump's patience has run thin:
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-warship-sai...32689.html

Ahead of 4th July and Trump meeting with Xi this weekend, NK is basically saying it is not controlled by China:
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/03/asia/n...index.html

I would watch the THAAD deployment very closely. I think SK prez Moon not keen to deploy because once deployed, a US strike becomes a plausible outcome.

As discussed above, a forced reunification is not unthinkable if US deemed NK uncontrollable and a threat in 10 years' time... even as everyone would love to remain status quo. I'm not sure if Kim Jong Un read about Saddam Hussein.

China does not want US to invade NK; China does not want US at its door step.

Japan and South Korea also does not want US to invade NK; the risk of collateral damage from missile attacks is high. Japan and South Korea wants NK to stop firing missiles, but they don't want a war. They want things to go back to how it used to be.

All the talk by China, Japan, and South Korea to 'continue to engage in dialogue' tells us they are not interested in war, they want status quo.

Only US wants to invade NK; purportedly for its own security. US has the lowest risk of collateral damage should they invade, assuming NK's missiles are not as developed. But US is held back by the possibility of China joining NK's side if a war breaks out.

NK doesn't care what China, Japan, or South Korea thinks. NK knows that neither Japan or South Korea are willing to put themselves at risk to stop NK. NK also knows that China isn't really concerned with their missiles, especially since they are intended for her enemy US. So it is likely NK will continue developing its missiles, and the only party who intention and ability to actually do something to stop them is US.

NK has been more aggressive in its missile programme since Trump's presidency. Perhaps they have reasons to believe that they may be invaded by US, and so the urgent need for missiles to counter this threat.

Will NK make the first strike? I think it is unlikely. Doing so will provide the justification to China, and the rest of the world, for an invasion by US, Japan, and South Korea. It will be the end of NK.