North Korea

Not really. On paper maybe. But from my interaction with the South Koreans, I do not sense any solidarity. There might be some solidarity 20 years ago due to living relatives across both borders. Most of them have passed away or going to pass away soon. I suppose none of us has close feelings with our distant relatives in China??

And the diff between West and East germany was large in 1991.
Before unification, GDP per capita for West was 22k euro and East was 9k or so.

For NK and SK, it should be around 20 times difference.
In 2013, North korea GDP per capita is $1800 while South is $33200.

(17-04-2017, 09:40 AM)yeokiwi Wrote: I doubt US will want a war. No one wants it including fat kim.
The north koreans have fallen so much behind the south that I do not even think the south koreans will want a unification. I can imagine the horde of north koreans swarming down to Seoul and will definitely short circuit the south korea economy.

The crux here is China. If China is more co-operative, the world can bring the north to its knees.
As long as the north perceives that the south is not attempting an invasion with information from her web of spies in south korea, i doubt they are interested to start a war.

One possible way is to draw up an economy zone near the border of china and north korea with US and china pooling in resources to rebuild NK and force NK to open its door to the world.

Unification of a country is not a test of Will about how poor the other side is. Is an aspiration of the people. A race within.
The NK people has suffered enough. Is time people realize how selfish can people are to let them continue.

Cory

(17-04-2017, 10:18 AM)yeokiwi Wrote: And the diff between West and East germany was large in 1991.
Before unification, GDP per capita for West was 22k euro and East was 9k or so.

For NK and SK, it should be around 20 times difference.
In 2013, North korea GDP per capita is $1800 while South is $33200.

Personally, I feel the GDP comparison to be rather silly. If a relative comes to ask for help, would it be easier to help a poorer or a not so poor relative? I think it is debatable.

On the other hand, I find relative population size to be a better guide. Prior to re-unification, EG population is approx 1/4 of WG. Unfortunately, NK is approx 1/2 of SK in population size. So SK might find it more challenging to accommodate NK, especially if migration is unbridled.

(17-04-2017, 10:18 AM)yeokiwi Wrote: Not really. On paper maybe. But from my interaction with the South Koreans, I do not sense any solidarity. There might be some solidarity 20 years ago due to living relatives across both borders. Most of them have passed away or going to pass away soon. I suppose none of us has close feelings with our distant relatives in China??

And the diff between West and East germany was large in 1991.
Before unification, GDP per capita for West was 22k euro and East was 9k or so.

For NK and SK, it should be around 20 times difference.
In 2013, North korea GDP per capita is $1800 while South is $33200.

(17-04-2017, 10:21 AM)corydorus Wrote:

(17-04-2017, 09:40 AM)yeokiwi Wrote: I doubt US will want a war. No one wants it including fat kim.
The north koreans have fallen so much behind the south that I do not even think the south koreans will want a unification. I can imagine the horde of north koreans swarming down to Seoul and will definitely short circuit the south korea economy.

The crux here is China. If China is more co-operative, the world can bring the north to its knees.
As long as the north perceives that the south is not attempting an invasion with information from her web of spies in south korea, i doubt they are interested to start a war.

One possible way is to draw up an economy zone near the border of china and north korea with US and china pooling in resources to rebuild NK and force NK to open its door to the world.

Unification of a country is not a test of Will about how poor the other side is. Is an aspiration of the people. A race within.
The NK people has suffered enough. Is time people realize how selfish can people are to let them continue.

Cory

Yes it's actually not on paper but on race and identity. Something that Singaporeans might find foreign because we live in a multi racial society and some dont even value nationality as important.

Koreans living north of Yalu River considers themselves Koreans not Chinese. Pakistanis are offended if you call them Indians. Or Japanese and Vietnamese offended if you mistake them as Chinese. Even some southern Taiwanese would be offended if you call them Chinese. I don't think Singaporeans in general bother if people don't know we are Singaporeans.

It's a nationalistic and identity thing where history and culture is more relevant than PnL or logic. ex-Yugoslavia or even Scotland is a good example. Or even annex of Austria by Germany and recent Crimea by Russia has those elements. Like I've been saying: the problem with the concept of EU is that it has not reached a stage like US. The rust belts are willing to suffer for New Yorkers or vice versa, but Germans are not willing to sacrifice for Greeks 

I don't think population or GDP per capita is the most important thing if push comes to shove. I doubt NK or SK wants to change the status quo per se but there are bigger interest, strategic and long term, at play

That's why I think US consistently underestimate China's resolve over Taiwan cause it makes no sense. It is not about logic; it's about nationalism. I think the Taiwanese generally knows that but just playing politics both side.

No, I don't think war is likely given the huge repecurssions. But then again is Kim rational enough to think likewise? When push comes to shove, china not lending support, and trump with his usual antics, i am not sure what will happen. Anyway I be going to south korea in 2 weeks.

Well, not so hard to connect the dots:

1. North Korea is not one of the most dangerous countries. These are Pakistan, with hundreds of nuclear weapons, a large part of the population supporting radical Islam and an Al Qaeda takeover possible any day. And Saudi Arabia, spreading its ultra radical Islam around the world. Plus the countries, which destroyed Libya, Syria, Yemen.
North Korea is a bizarre military dictatorship, but they are not trying to destroy or conquer any of its neighbours, just try to survive with a credible threat of retaliation. Their strategy includes appearing to be 'unpredictable'.

2. Nuclear warheads on long range missiles may be regarded as a threat by the US. Though not really, they would very likely be shot down, and North Korea has only very few warheads.

3. US strategy in the region is to contain China, create conflicts between China and its neighbours, luring everyone else into 'friendship' with the US. A new conflict between China and North Korea would be welcome.

4. It is also a 'favour' intended to tighten relationship with Japan. Japan is sometimes going astray, and a horror scenario for US Neo-Cons would be a peace treaty with Russia, solving the issue of the Kuril Islands.

5. Further purpose is sending a message to Iran and Russia. US does not fear a conflict, even a nuclear conflict. (Playing the unpredictability card themselves)

6. Further purpose is to gain popularity at home and worldwide, by going after the alleged 'bad guy' this time. Making a case for playing world's policeman after 2 decades of bringing destruction and chaos to Ukraine, North Africa, the Middle East and now as collateral damage to Europe, helping Saudi Arabia to replace main stream Islam with its ultra radical Wahabbism and supporting Al Qaeda, part of them morphing into ISIS.

7. Not sure what the outcome of this is, but the really bad guys will be speared. The good guys like Russia and Syria fighting against Al Qaeda and ISIS will not be helped, tensions in Eastern Asia will not go away. Neocons now have Trump on his knees, hope for a new foreign policy to combine forces against radical Islam is gone. Next bad guy on the playbook is probably Philippine president Duterte, who does not want to play enemy with China and even made concessions regarding some small islands.

(17-04-2017, 02:41 PM)bmann025 Wrote: Well, not so hard to connect the dots:

1. North Korea is not one of the most dangerous countries. These are Pakistan, with hundreds of nuclear weapons, a large part of the population supporting radical Islam and an Al Qaeda takeover possible any day.  And Saudi Arabia, spreading its ultra radical Islam around the world. Plus the countries, which destroyed Libya, Syria, Yemen.
North Korea is a bizarre military dictatorship, but they are not trying to destroy or conquer any of its neighbours, just try to survive with a credible threat of retaliation. Their strategy includes appearing to be 'unpredictable'.

2. Nuclear warheads on long range missiles may be regarded as a threat by the US. Though not really, they would very likely be shot down, and North Korea has only very few warheads.

3. US strategy in the region is to contain China, create conflicts between China and its neighbours, luring everyone else into 'friendship' with the US. A new conflict between China and North Korea would be welcome.

4. It is also a 'favour' intended to tighten relationship with Japan. Japan is sometimes going astray, and a horror scenario for US Neo-Cons would be a peace treaty with Russia, solving the issue of the Kuril Islands.

5. Further purpose is sending a message to Iran and Russia. US does not fear a conflict, even a nuclear conflict. (Playing the unpredictability card themselves)

6. Further purpose is to gain popularity at home and worldwide, by going after the alleged 'bad guy' this time. Making a case for playing world's policeman after 2 decades of bringing destruction and chaos to Ukraine, North Africa, the Middle East and now as collateral damage to Europe, helping Saudi Arabia to replace main stream Islam with its ultra radical Wahabbism and supporting Al Qaeda, part of them morphing into ISIS.

7. Not sure what the outcome of this is, but the really bad guys will be speared. The good guys like Russia and Syria fighting against Al Qaeda and ISIS will not be helped, tensions in Eastern Asia will not go away. Neocons now have Trump on his knees, hope for a new foreign policy to combine forces against radical Islam is gone. Next bad guy on the playbook is probably Philippine president Duterte, who does not want to play enemy with China and even made concessions regarding some small islands.

Ya lol.

i always feel strange that US feels threatened by NK and not Paskistan or even India.

i agree especially by Pakistan!

And of course by Russia (a lot, how else U S had warned Russia before bombing Syria with 59 Tomahawks.) and China a bit now but in the long run US feel China may be a greater threat.

Perhap U S pays so much attention to NK because of trying to slow down as much as possible China's growing threat into the future?

My guess is, i think China knows that.

Quote:i agree especially by Pakistan!

Pakistan has not launched any satellite yet and therefore it does not have intercontinental ballistic capability.
And, launching a missile is not as simple task as pressing a button.

And why US is not worried about pakistan?They probably have a good network of spies in pakistan and the ability to snoop military communication anytime.
The same cannot be said of NK. I am not even sure whether China has even a spy in NK.

(17-04-2017, 08:26 PM)yeokiwi Wrote:

Quote:i agree especially by Pakistan!

Pakistan has not launched any satellite yet and therefore it does not have intercontinental ballistic capability.
And, launching a missile is not as simple task as pressing a button.

And why US is not worried about pakistan?They probably have a good network of spies in pakistan and the ability to snoop military communication anytime.
The same cannot be said of NK. I am not even sure whether China has even a spy in NK.

i see.

No wonder IRAN had said something like this, "We don't have to ask anyone permission to launch a missile". (aka a missile to the moon with nuclear warheads?)

Still Pakistan can sell it's NW know-hows or even weapons to the players in middle east.

North Korea is Communist of the 1950s under cruel dictatorship. Pakistan or India are still a democratic countries.