IBM

(21-03-2017, 01:10 PM)Wildreamz Wrote:

(21-03-2017, 10:02 AM)YMPL Wrote: Banking is the most likely sector disrupted by Blockchain. IBM is the top supplier to the banking sector. It seems very promising to IBM, IMHO

Indeed, 90% of the largest banks in the world are already IBM existing customers. This is IBM's network effect (not unlike Apple's fan base, Facebook users etc).

Financial Institutions would most likely be impacted the most first, followed by healthcare, and any other form of supply chain. And we are still scratching the surface (lot's of potential synergy with IBM's IOT and Cloud offerings).

IBM's stock price doesn't seem to reflect their potential, and still trades around Warren Buffett's cost basis 6 years ago. Interesting.

There is a case for the relative low value. Ibm has been extremely late to the datacentre and cloud trend. Their steps towards ai, iot and blockchain seem right (little competition in this arena) but bear in mind that as first movers, they incur more risks and have a harder time convincing customers to shift mindsets. Some of the success cases reported on the news are still pr spins if read closely.

That being said, and as a former employee, i do suspect a strong turnaround from a forward looking management.

Sent from my LG-H818 using Tapatalk

Seems like my earlier reply from mobile didnt make it. my thoughts :

1) Blockchain its still early days, as payment system it will have to compete with things like Visa PayPass and Paypal. Many people buy things on credit, so those people will not be interested in instant payments. internet wise Paypal is already very entrenched with major retailers like amazon and ebay. Of course china side got alipay etc...

2) There is the big question of control and regulation. There is also debate of Private vs. public blockchain. the public one which uses bitcoin to transact has shown us all the challenges facing such decentralized technology and a cryptocurrency. The private ones will be controlled by someone or some entity which may have transparency issues.

3) Governments and central banks will likely not allow since this will replace their currency control. 

4) Money laundering or other sorts of illegal financial services.

5) Claim its very high security, but we all know there is nothing that cant be hacked.

6) Many of the other Blockchain claims of improving business function etc may be overemphasized. Currently many perfectly functional systems provided to big company by SAP / Oraclec overing things like enterprise resource planning (ERP), customer relationship management (CRM), and supply-chain management (SCM). SAP is also doing some blockchain stuff but its in early stages.

This article on what it can and cannot do for insurance co. sheds some insight on how limited it is. 
Here's What Blockchain Can And Cannot Do For Insurers Right Now

[Like any disruptive technology, the cascading impact on standards, data governance and regulatory compliance is huge. “Blockchain can only work if a group of insurers and customers standardize and simplify contracts,” said Schmidt. “We’ll need new processes, governance and standards.”]

As we know, most governments are slow to approve this kinds of things. For the next 5 years i reckon IBM foray into blockchain may put them slightly ahead in the field, but probably will not contribute much to earnings. There's also plenty of competition as well since blockchain is not really a proprietary concept.

If buying a blue chip tech, I would rather choose to put my money in German SAP, it has a pretty sweet oligopolic position together with Oracle ;D

Several points to add: 

1. Blockchain technologies application is not restricted to cryptocurrencies and financial transactions (common misconceptions); it is applicable to any shared database system.

2. Blockchain technologies has a fundamental advantage in the following:
* security (immutability; not unhackable, but close)
* transparency (increased access to information to all party)
* decentralization (removal of escrow agent)

That means it has fundamental advantage in cost, speed and efficiency over traditional centralized database system.

3. Blockchain adoption will be faster than previous disruptive technology (think the internet); basically all new disruptive technology will be adopted at an increased pace until the machines take over at the point of Singularity (lol).

4. Not sure how will it impact IBM's bottom and top line exactly. But IMHO their stock price does not reflect their growth potential.

5. Oracle and SAP have interesting opportunities in the Cloud space. IBM's overall package (Blockchain-play, Cloud-play, low valuation etc) is just more attractive to me .

(21-03-2017, 10:03 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: Several points to add: 

1. Blockchain technologies application is not restricted to cryptocurrencies and financial transactions (common misconceptions); it is applicable to any shared database system.

2. Blockchain technologies has a fundamental advantage in the following:
* security (immutability; not unhackable, but close)
* transparency (increased access to information to all party)
* decentralization (removal of escrow agent)

That means it has fundamental advantage in cost, speed and efficiency over traditional centralized database system.

3. Blockchain adoption will be faster than previous disruptive technology (think the internet); basically all new disruptive technology will be adopted at an increased pace until the machines take over at the point of Singularity (lol).

4. Not sure how will it impact IBM's bottom and top line exactly. But IMHO their stock price does not reflect their growth potential.

5. Oracle and SAP have interesting opportunities in the Cloud space. IBM's overall package (Blockchain-play, Cloud-play, low valuation etc) is just more attractive to me .

Sure Blockchain can be used widely wherever you have database systems, but the more profitable use is in financial markets which is still pretty limited to Bitcoins/cryptocurrency and other payments systems. And if you are using this platform for running companies, there are already big players like SAP/Oracle already with current platforms that are doing the job just fine. Costs will still be a factor.

Security :
The hack that changed the blockchain perspective
Bitfinex hack shows how bitcoin’s blockchain can be a liability
I am sure more will get hacked as time passes. Even US gov can get hacked by chinese and russians.

Transparency : Not everyone wants transparency, many big corporations would prefer their transactions be private.

Decentralization : as mentioned, there will be lack of control with a decentralized structure. And when you get hacked, how are you gonna stop the hack at one go?

Blockchain may be somewhat disruptive, but it will not be replacing current systems anytime soon for so many reasons as I have pointed out before. More likely it will just complement current enterprise and financial models.

Bottomline : IBM seems to be just rolling out the basic blockchain for their current clients. And testing a new project (that includes the Hyperledger from Linux foundation) with JPX for some low liquidity trading/settlements. Note these are for private systems and clients hence will only roll out to IBM customers. They are unable to transact with other implementations of blockchain.

Blockchain seems to be catching on, but in the short to medium term (within next 5 years), IMHO it should not be a big factor in IBM's future growth prospect. 

IBM website shows how their new hyperledger stacks up against Bitcoin and Ethereum.
https://www.ibm.com/blockchain/hyperledger.html

Bitcoin and Ethereum already kena hack before... Will be eagerly awaiting the day that IBM's blockchain system become more mainstream and kena hack. Akan Datang...

Good luck with IBM, well at least got Buffett as solid backer

@BlueKelah

You are right of course, regarding Bitcoin and Ethereum transactions getting hacked before. My original point is referring to the Blockchain ledger itself, once verified by all parties, becomes immutable. Other points of contact (such as the Bitcoin wallet itself) can always be hacked.

There is a true value-add for switching to a Blockchain system from a centralized system (cost savings, speed, traceability, security, transparency etc). The value-adds outweigh the switch cost or implementation cost, and as of today, many important companies in almost every sector are planning /or have already taken on Blockchain projects in one way shape or form.

Quote:.. They are unable to transact with other implementations of blockchain.

The purpose of the open source Hyperledger project is to establish standards and ensure interoperability between Blockchains. And Hyperledger currently has the most traction.

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/bank...-microsoft


Thanks, in for the long haul 

Buffett Discloses Reduced IBM Stake Ahead of Berkshire Meeting

by Jing Cao
May 5, 2017, 9:30 AM GMT+8

Warren Buffett gave Berkshire Hathaway Inc. investors something to talk about at the company’s annual meeting this weekend: He sold about a third of Berkshire’s investment in computer-services giant IBM.

Berkshire reduced the stake during the first and second quarters, CNBC reported, citing Buffett. The billionaire chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire said he has since stopped selling, according to the broadcaster. Before the sales, Berkshire held about 81 million shares.

Berkshire started building its International Business Machines Corp. stake in 2011, eventually becoming the company’s largest shareholder, with an investment valued at almost $13 billion. IBM’s shares gained about 21 percent in 2016 after a run of three straight annual declines, and are still more than 25 percent lower than the company’s 10-year peak in 2013. The shares have lagged behind both technology peers and the S&P 500 Index in 2017.

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...re-meeting

Embarrassed to say, just sold out last week, even though I recently said I was in it for the long haul..

Quoting my remarks in Seekingalpha:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4069439...elling-ibm

Quote:I also sold it.. Last week, at 160 small gains / flat for this counter.. But I still believe that IBM is the undisputed lead in Blockchain, AI (natural language processing), enterprise, IOT and Hybrid Cloud. I'm just increasingly uncertain if the current management is able to execute given how low the moral of IBMers currently are. Also Microsoft is eroding their competitive advantage among enterprises given how driven they are under the leadership of Satya Nadella.

Ginni Rometty has good vision, IBM has a huge head start in all the technological trends mentioned above. But they squandered their lead in the last 5 years (a generation in the tech space), and I'm not sure they could make a compelling business case given their track record.

IBM's Blockchain Efforts Are Gaining Momentum
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/09/2...entum.aspx

Quote:Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin may eventually crash and burn, but the underlying blockchain technology looks like it's here to stay. Exactly how transformative blockchain turns out to be is up in the air, but companies big and small are jumping on board.

International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) may seem like an unlikely leader in this emerging area. But the century-old technology giant, years deep into a broad transformation and looking to shed its image as a dinosaur, is putting its weight behind blockchain. The move makes sense -- blockchain is particularly well suited for use in the financial services industry, and IBM counts major financial institutions as longtime customers.

May be divested in IBM, but I still believe Blockchain is a transformative technology and am closely watching this space.

(24-09-2017, 05:30 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: IBM's Blockchain Efforts Are Gaining Momentum
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/09/2...entum.aspx

Quote:Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin may eventually crash and burn, but the underlying blockchain technology looks like it's here to stay. Exactly how transformative blockchain turns out to be is up in the air, but companies big and small are jumping on board.

International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) may seem like an unlikely leader in this emerging area. But the century-old technology giant, years deep into a broad transformation and looking to shed its image as a dinosaur, is putting its weight behind blockchain. The move makes sense -- blockchain is particularly well suited for use in the financial services industry, and IBM counts major financial institutions as longtime customers.

May be divested in IBM, but I still believe Blockchain is a transformative technology and am closely watching this space.

The previous dominant players will go thru a tough period. I reckon, the SGX Silverlake Axis is facing the same storm.

IBM shares head for biggest gain in eight years
Read more at http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busi...rs-9322022