Popular Holdings

(18-08-2011, 11:55 AM)violinist Wrote: One thing I have never understood is how and why the h*** would people trade 1 lot of Popular?
11:48:59 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:41:21 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:33:31 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:31:04 0.160 1,000 Sell Down
11:31:03 0.160 80,000 Sell Down
11:24:46 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:17:39 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:09:19 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:00:53 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:53:16 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:44:58 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:36:50 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:28:34 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:20:07 0.160 1,000 Buy Up
10:12:22 0.159 1,000 Buy Up
09:49:19 0.163 98,000 Buy Up
09:49:19 0.163 73,000 Buy Up
09:49:10 0.163 3,000 Buy Up
09:49:10 0.163 2,000 Buy Up
09:48:11 0.163 4,000 Buy Up

i guess need not waste time discussing this..because take for example myself - I bought 1 lot of dutech at $0.14 today costing me $140 and commission is just less than $0.35..total cost is $140.34 using no minimum brokerage fee arrangement with stanchart. so there is no higher transaction cost for trading just 1 lot

(18-08-2011, 10:41 PM)pianist Wrote:

(18-08-2011, 11:55 AM)violinist Wrote: One thing I have never understood is how and why the h*** would people trade 1 lot of Popular?
11:48:59 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:41:21 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:33:31 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:31:04 0.160 1,000 Sell Down
11:31:03 0.160 80,000 Sell Down
11:24:46 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:17:39 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:09:19 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:00:53 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:53:16 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:44:58 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:36:50 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:28:34 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:20:07 0.160 1,000 Buy Up
10:12:22 0.159 1,000 Buy Up
09:49:19 0.163 98,000 Buy Up
09:49:19 0.163 73,000 Buy Up
09:49:10 0.163 3,000 Buy Up
09:49:10 0.163 2,000 Buy Up
09:48:11 0.163 4,000 Buy Up

i guess need not waste time discussing this..because take for example myself - I bought 1 lot of dutech at $0.14 today costing me $140 and commission is just less than $0.35..total cost is $140.34 using no minimum brokerage fee arrangement with stanchart. so there is no higher transaction cost for trading just 1 lot

Didn't know about no minimum brokerage fee! Anyway, that's for you, for the seller? So that's why.

One of the great companies in Singapore. One of my high conviction buys now.

First off, I am in the view that the property sector is fast overheating in Singapore. However, if you look at the figures, property development makes up a small portion of their revenues. Their core business is going strong and I believe that they have strong economic moat in their retail business area.

Whats more compelling is the amount of cash on their balance sheets, their strong earnings yield, the stability of the business etc. Its trading at a PE of 5.55 and that's just insane!

Even just based on dividend alone, it yields about 6% annually. You don't really need much capital appreciation to achieve a 10% return annually in the long run. Sure, it's not an exciting business, but it's definitely one that I understand well and that I have high conviction in, especially at this price.

- Long Popular

Propert may be just a small part of total revenue, but it is more than 20% of profit for FY11, and the biggest contributor in FY10.

Yup your right. If I remember correctly, the reason why it showed such a "big contribution" was due to a a fair value impairment reversal from its properties versus a real inflow of cash.

(18-08-2011, 11:55 AM)violinist Wrote: One thing I have never understood is how and why the h*** would people trade 1 lot of Popular?

11:48:59 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:41:21 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:33:31 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:31:04 0.160 1,000 Sell Down
11:31:03 0.160 80,000 Sell Down
11:24:46 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:17:39 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:09:19 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
11:00:53 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:53:16 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:44:58 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:36:50 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:28:34 0.162 1,000 Buy Up
10:20:07 0.160 1,000 Buy Up
10:12:22 0.159 1,000 Buy Up
09:49:19 0.163 98,000 Buy Up
09:49:19 0.163 73,000 Buy Up
09:49:10 0.163 3,000 Buy Up
09:49:10 0.163 2,000 Buy Up
09:48:11 0.163 4,000 Buy Up

Didn't know Stan Chart brokerage dun impose min. commission, so good to know heh.

One more question, how do u get the breakdown of trades as quoted?

One less competitor in town.

I doubt the closure of Borders has any effect, if not marginal. The customers are different. I think Harris (are there still any around?) is not a good idea. The Internet is slowly obsoleting "brick and mortar" media companies, look at Sembawang.

Yes. Harris is still around. There's a decent size outlet at Jurong Point. But the crowd is rather pathetic. Its seems like Popular is kinda like in a no man's land with Harris. Do they give up the segment completely or at least try to have a presence?

I disagree with yr assessment. While MP3 is a perfect copy of the CD that makes them obsolete. As of now, there is still no perfect electronic substitution that makes books and magazines obsolete. A lot of money and resources has been poured in and you have decent e-book readers and tablets that can simulate but not duplicate the book reading experience. Moreover, visit any Popular store and you noticed that more than 50% is buying assessment books. Another quarter is buying stationary and non-books/magazine items.

So I would surmise that Popular does not live and die by the book.

(Vested)

i see two business risk for popular.

first, that they screw up their property development business, which is going to be very costly (the impairment they made two years back gives us a good idea of how bad it could be).

and second, that school start using tablets as part of their curriculum. initiatives from the govt to introduce IT into students' education has been on-going for more than a decade now. there are always pilot projects conducted on the feasibility of incorporating commercial IT products into the classroom. i read few months back that ipads are being given out to nsf recruits. i also read that nanyang girls also has an ipad pilot project.

i always thought popular has a captive market of (the parents of) school-going kids. most, if not all, of the mom and pop stationery/book shops were wiped out by the late 90s. if popular catered to the higher value markets, as kino and borders has done, i wouldn't be interested in popular as a long-term proposition.

speaking of high value markets, i also see more shops selling fancy art paper materials for scrap-booking purposes. i was at plaza sing and there was this shop called 'paper market', and some others at other malls that i can't recall. they go for at least a dollar for an a4 sized piece. those are some pretty high margins for paper products! could be just a fad though.