Stratech Group

The number of airports is debatable and of course, there are many risk factors as highlighted.

Tks.

(07-05-2015, 02:46 PM)specuvestor Wrote:

(07-05-2015, 02:19 PM)littleones Wrote:

(07-05-2015, 02:14 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: At a steady state,

Key assumptions are (might be flawed)
1. 33% of revenue each year goes to partners for each airport (just a general assumption)
2. $47mil over 7yrs = $6.7 mil per year (Hong Kong airport case, just an example)
3. So, Stratech gets to keep say $4.5mil per year.
4. NPM = 20%. So net profit per year (over the 7 yr period) = $0.9mil (per airport like Hong Kong)
5. Say, overall, Stratech manages to secure contract for 15 airports at steady state, we would have ~ $13.5mil per year (over 7 yrs)
6. Assume P/E of 19, market cap works out to be $256 mil.

Current market cap ~ $50mil

My guesstimate for Stratech is that it's share price should be above 25 cents this time next year, bringing its market cap to at least $375 million

I can only say this: At least CP gives some numbers....

So CP has become quant guy using reference to S&P500 tech company margins & ratios for a Singapore value forum. And up the ante to 15 airports. Brilliant. I guess that ends my involvement here.

I thought I needed to instill some rationale into this thread as this forum has been great for me and doesn't deserved to be discredited by one thread. Caveat Emptor I think the info in the debate is sufficient for readers, "don't know" is not valid anymore.

(07-05-2015, 02:27 PM)getrich Wrote: Giving aggressive earnings forecast is just playing with fire.

If someone files a formal complaint with MAS, it just increases the likelihood that you'd get invited to have a coffee session at MAS.

It is new. IIRC, no buddy was invited to MAS due to posting in VB. We did have formal complains for postings here, but none is from MAS

Regards
Moderator

(07-05-2015, 02:42 PM)littleones Wrote:

(07-05-2015, 02:15 PM)flanforever Wrote:

(07-05-2015, 11:13 AM)littleones Wrote: The key lies in using vision technology and Stratech's proprietary software developed and fine tuned over the past decade. This results in an image taken of an unlit runway at night that similar to one taken during day time. This is the edge that iFerret has over other systems

iFerret does not have an edge when other competitors are using radar image which does not have trouble at all during night time. It just nullified it's weakness, that's all.

Competitor's:
The FOD Finder detection system was able to detect the objects of various shapes, sizes, and materials on runway surfaces, taxiways, and aprons, and was able to perform satisfactorily in nighttime, daytime, sun, rain, mist, fog, and snow.

Can iFerret works under rain, mist, fog and snow?
Probably this is why it won at Dubai and Hong Kong.

(07-05-2015, 11:01 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: Just looking plainly at anecdotal evidence:-
a. How is it possible that iFerret managed to oust the incumbent and other competitors at the Dubai airport ?
b. And this is not once but twice. Then it managed to oust its competitors again at Hong Kong airport....
c. Thirdly, why is iFerret being deployed in the airbase of one of the world's leading Air Force?

Is the above mere coincidence of triple events?

Tks.

The above same questions can be asked.

How did iFerret got oust by xsight in below airports?
"FODetect is operational and protecting aircraft operations at Logan Airport in Boston, Tel AvivBen-Gurion International Airport and Bangkok Suvarnabhumi International Airport. FODspot™subsystem has been acquired by Paris’s Charles de Gaulle International Airport."

And this is not once but twice, how did iFerret being FAA approved but still being oust by xsight in Seattle-Tacoma Airport? (Sept. 23, 2014)

How did iFerret got oust by qinetiq in below airports?
Heathrow International, Vancouver International, Doha International and MOD Boscombe Down (UK RAF).

Source: http://fod-detection.com/2011/09/16/faa-...od-finder/

We should make the comparison after FAA approval of the first 4 systems in 2012. How many contract wins Stratech has compared to its competitors. That should give you a better picture

Seattle-Tacoma Airport (Sept. 23, 2014), this seems to be after 2012 if my maths does not fail me. And SEA is located in US if my geography doesn't fail me too.

So, after FAA approval, did iFerret gain any US airport? which one?

Miami International Airport will be next, will iFerret gets it? Lets wait and see.

According to Edge

"To ensure Stratech Group comes out ahead of the pack, Chew's strategy is to "focus on bidding for jobs by premium airports so we can call for premium prices.

With the iFerret, we have a mega product that will bring in millions of dollars for every single system installed and there are thousands of airports out there with more than just one runway".

For instance, Stratech Group is currently in negotiations to install the iFerret in six runways at a major international airport, which will raise the value of that contract by 60%, if it goes through. Stratech Group is also working on making additional revenue from recurring maintenance work of existing iFerret systems."
________________________
Basically, Stratech does not go for every tom dick and harry airports around the world.

"premium airports"
Dubai airport - 71.6 mil passengers per annum (2014)
Chicago O'Hare International Airport - 70mil (2014)
Hong kong airport - 63.3 mil (2014)
Changi international airport - 54mil (2014)
Düsseldorf Airport - 22 mil (2014)

"XXX airports"
Seattle-Tacoma - 37mil (2014)

(07-05-2015, 06:12 PM)flanforever Wrote:

(07-05-2015, 02:42 PM)littleones Wrote:

(07-05-2015, 02:15 PM)flanforever Wrote:

(07-05-2015, 11:13 AM)littleones Wrote: The key lies in using vision technology and Stratech's proprietary software developed and fine tuned over the past decade. This results in an image taken of an unlit runway at night that similar to one taken during day time. This is the edge that iFerret has over other systems

iFerret does not have an edge when other competitors are using radar image which does not have trouble at all during night time. It just nullified it's weakness, that's all.

Competitor's:
The FOD Finder detection system was able to detect the objects of various shapes, sizes, and materials on runway surfaces, taxiways, and aprons, and was able to perform satisfactorily in nighttime, daytime, sun, rain, mist, fog, and snow.

Can iFerret works under rain, mist, fog and snow?
Probably this is why it won at Dubai and Hong Kong.

(07-05-2015, 11:01 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: Just looking plainly at anecdotal evidence:-
a. How is it possible that iFerret managed to oust the incumbent and other competitors at the Dubai airport ?
b. And this is not once but twice. Then it managed to oust its competitors again at Hong Kong airport....
c. Thirdly, why is iFerret being deployed in the airbase of one of the world's leading Air Force?

Is the above mere coincidence of triple events?

Tks.

The above same questions can be asked.

How did iFerret got oust by xsight in below airports?
"FODetect is operational and protecting aircraft operations at Logan Airport in Boston, Tel AvivBen-Gurion International Airport and Bangkok Suvarnabhumi International Airport. FODspot™subsystem has been acquired by Paris’s Charles de Gaulle International Airport."

And this is not once but twice, how did iFerret being FAA approved but still being oust by xsight in Seattle-Tacoma Airport? (Sept. 23, 2014)

How did iFerret got oust by qinetiq in below airports?
Heathrow International, Vancouver International, Doha International and MOD Boscombe Down (UK RAF).

Source: http://fod-detection.com/2011/09/16/faa-...od-finder/

We should make the comparison after FAA approval of the first 4 systems in 2012. How many contract wins Stratech has compared to its competitors. That should give you a better picture

Seattle-Tacoma Airport (Sept. 23, 2014), this seems to be after 2012 if my maths does not fail me. And SEA is located in US if my geography doesn't fail me too.

So, after FAA approval, did iFerret gain any US airport? which one?

Miami International Airport will be next, will iFerret gets it? Lets wait and see.

(07-05-2015, 10:27 AM)Sampling Wrote:

(07-05-2015, 09:44 AM)flanforever Wrote: Radar imaging doesn't work at night?

For FOD purposes, radar imaging actually works better at night!

Iferret's main advantage of using machine vision tech is actually the ability to perform surveillance. In lay man terms if there's something the machine cannot tell if it's trouble or not, a human being can actually view the image that looks like a camera image rather than a radar image.

I reckon is depends on the fit for purpose as a normal monitoring camera will be cheaper than putting an iferret but if you need to do FODs and at the same time do surveillance at the same area, an iFerret is better?

one particular weakness is as it's using machine vision tech, it's susceptible to things like fog, haze or anything that blocks light/infrared. Radar imaging uses eletrocmagnetic which is less affected by these things.

In 2008, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Airport Technology Research and Development Team conducted a performance assessment of the iFerret™, electro-optical, foreign object debris (FOD) detection system. This assessment included the system’s capability to detect objects of various shapes, sizes, and materials at all locations on the runway surface. The system’s capability to detect FOD during both nighttime and daytime conditions, in periods of sun, rain, mist, fog, and snow was also assessed.

A comprehensive performance assessment of the technology was demonstrated at the Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD). Installation of iFerret sensors was completed at ORD in late 2008, and extensive data collection was conducted from June 2009 through July 2010. These were supplemented by an assessment of an iFerret installation at Singapore’s Changi International Airport in May 2009. At the conclusion of the data collection process, the FAA had sufficient data to conclude the performance assessment. The iFerret FOD detection system was able to detect objects of various shapes, sizes, and materials on runway surfaces, taxiways, and aprons and was able to perform satisfactorily in nighttime, daytime, sun, rain, mist, fog, and snow conditions, as required by FAA Advisory Circular 150/5220-24, “Airport Foreign Object Debris (FOD) Detection Equipment.”

http://www.airporttech.tc.faa.gov/safety/downloads/

One of my post last July at Sharejunction
=====================================
Stratech was in the news recently and I went to read up on its recent announcements in SGX. This is what I had found.

Revenue for FY2014 is S$11.13 million against S$2.543 million in FY2013. That is an increase of 337.68%

I further gather where these revenues come from



FY2014 FY2013

Singapore 2,684,000 2,488,000

South East Asia - 16,000

USA 5,054,000 7,000

Middle East 3,392,000 -

Europe - 32,000

11,130,000 2,543,000



Announcement by Stratech in SGX

1. On 22 Jan 2013, Stratech announced that its contract with the Government of Singapore to operate and maintain the Medical Claims Proration System (MCPS) has been extended for two years from 1 Jan 2013 to 31 Dec 2014 at a contract value of $2.7 million.

The contract will have a positive impact on the Group' s financials from 1st January 2013.


2. On 8 Mar 2013, Stratech announced that its intelligent Vehicle Access Control System (iVACS® ) has been called for and specified in a project in the Middle East which involves several hundred buildings meant for administration, security and civil defense. Stratech has entered into a partnership with the Group that has been awarded the project, and will provide at least 28 units of iVACS® .

Subject to the final results, the Company believes that this will contribute positively to the Group&rsquo s revenue over the next two financial years.


3. On 30 Sep 13, Stratech announced that its iFerret&trade intelligent Airfield/Runway Surveillance and Foreign Object & Debris (FOD) Detection System has been selected for deployment by one of the world&rsquo s top Air Forces.

Subject to accounting treatment and progress of work and, barring unforeseen circumstances, the Company estimates that this project may contribute up to $5 million to $6 million to its revenue in the current financial year


4. On 22 Jan 2014, Stratech announced that its iFerret&trade intelligent Airfield/Runway Surveillance and Foreign Object & Debris (FOD) Detection System has won in a Tender for the Runway Debris Management System (RDMS) at Dubai International Airport in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Subject to accounting treatment and progress of work and, barring unforeseen circumstances, the Company estimates that this project may contribute between $5.9 million to $10.6 million to its revenue in the current financial year.


5. On 3 Feb 2014, Stratech announced it has secured a contract from the Government of Singapore for the iFerret&trade Infrastructure at Changi International Airport to be upgraded for Airfield Surveillance.

How much this upgrade will contribute to Stratech' s bottom-line is not mentioned.


6. On 27 Jun 2014, Stratech announced that that it has been selected to deploy another 30 or more of its iVACS® intelligent Vehicle Access Control Systems in the Middle East.

Currently, Stratech has an order book for more than 59 iVACS® from clients in the Middle East and several different parts of the world. 25 of these systems are expected to be delivered by the end of June 2014.

The order book for more than 59 iVACS® will contribute at least $2.44 million to the Group&rsquo s revenue in the current financial year


I believe the revenue of S$11.13 million for FY2014 comes items 1, 2 & 3

================================

Items 4, 5 & 6 will contribute to the revenue for FY2015

(07-05-2015, 07:26 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: According to Edge

"To ensure Stratech Group comes out ahead of the pack, Chew's strategy is to "focus on bidding for jobs by premium airports so we can call for premium prices.

With the iFerret, we have a mega product that will bring in millions of dollars for every single system installed and there are thousands of airports out there with more than just one runway".

For instance, Stratech Group is currently in negotiations to install the iFerret in six runways at a major international airport, which will raise the value of that contract by 60%, if it goes through. Stratech Group is also working on making additional revenue from recurring maintenance work of existing iFerret systems."
________________________
Basically, Stratech does not go for every tom dick and harry airports around the world.

"premium airports"
Dubai airport - 71.6 mil passengers per annum (2014)
Chicago O'Hare International Airport - 70mil (2014)
Hong kong airport - 63.3 mil (2014)
Changi international airport - 54mil (2014)
Düsseldorf Airport - 22 mil (2014)

"XXX airports"
Seattle-Tacoma - 37mil (2014)

(07-05-2015, 06:12 PM)flanforever Wrote:

(07-05-2015, 02:42 PM)littleones Wrote:

(07-05-2015, 02:15 PM)flanforever Wrote:

(07-05-2015, 11:13 AM)littleones Wrote: The key lies in using vision technology and Stratech's proprietary software developed and fine tuned over the past decade. This results in an image taken of an unlit runway at night that similar to one taken during day time. This is the edge that iFerret has over other systems

iFerret does not have an edge when other competitors are using radar image which does not have trouble at all during night time. It just nullified it's weakness, that's all.

Competitor's:
The FOD Finder detection system was able to detect the objects of various shapes, sizes, and materials on runway surfaces, taxiways, and aprons, and was able to perform satisfactorily in nighttime, daytime, sun, rain, mist, fog, and snow.

Can iFerret works under rain, mist, fog and snow?
Probably this is why it won at Dubai and Hong Kong.

(07-05-2015, 11:01 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: Just looking plainly at anecdotal evidence:-
a. How is it possible that iFerret managed to oust the incumbent and other competitors at the Dubai airport ?
b. And this is not once but twice. Then it managed to oust its competitors again at Hong Kong airport....
c. Thirdly, why is iFerret being deployed in the airbase of one of the world's leading Air Force?

Is the above mere coincidence of triple events?

Tks.

The above same questions can be asked.

How did iFerret got oust by xsight in below airports?
"FODetect is operational and protecting aircraft operations at Logan Airport in Boston, Tel AvivBen-Gurion International Airport and Bangkok Suvarnabhumi International Airport. FODspot™subsystem has been acquired by Paris’s Charles de Gaulle International Airport."

And this is not once but twice, how did iFerret being FAA approved but still being oust by xsight in Seattle-Tacoma Airport? (Sept. 23, 2014)

How did iFerret got oust by qinetiq in below airports?
Heathrow International, Vancouver International, Doha International and MOD Boscombe Down (UK RAF).

Source: http://fod-detection.com/2011/09/16/faa-...od-finder/

We should make the comparison after FAA approval of the first 4 systems in 2012. How many contract wins Stratech has compared to its competitors. That should give you a better picture

Seattle-Tacoma Airport (Sept. 23, 2014), this seems to be after 2012 if my maths does not fail me. And SEA is located in US if my geography doesn't fail me too.

So, after FAA approval, did iFerret gain any US airport? which one?

Miami International Airport will be next, will iFerret gets it? Lets wait and see.

London Heathrow Airport - 73 mil (2014)
Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport - 63 mil (2014)
Suvarnabhumi Airport - 46 mil (2014)
Miami International Airport - 40 mil (2014)

maybe someone can help to tabulate the list of airports won by each player in the automated FOD market and the average passenger volume (per annum). I have already done so for Stratech.

Then, we can have a better gauge of how each of the player corners the FOD market.

many tks.

(08-05-2015, 12:01 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: maybe someone can help to tabulate the list of airports won by each player in the automated FOD market and the average passenger volume (per annum). I have already done so for Stratech.

Then, we can have a better gauge of how each of the player corners the FOD market.

many tks.

Based on 2014 annual passengers
Xsight Systems – FODetect:
Logan Airport, Boston - 31 mil
Tel AvivBen-Gurion International Airport - 15 mil
Bangkok Suvarnabhumi International Airport - 46 mil
Paris’s Charles de Gaulle International Airport - 63 mil
Seattle-Tacoma Airport - 37 mil

QinetiQ – Tarsier:
Heathrow International Airport - 73 mil
Vancouver International Airport - 19 mil
Doha International Airport - 23mil (2013)
MOD Boscombe Down (UK RAF)
Providence, RI (PVD) - 3.5mil (FAA assessment)

Trex Enterprises – FOD Finder:
Chicago O'Hare International Airport - 70mil (FAA assessment)
Honolulu International Airport - 20mil (2013) (FAA assessment)
McClellan-Palomar Airport (FAA assessment)

One way to find out whether Stratech can respond to the higher level of work orders from its clients is to dwell deeper into its staffing structure and whether it has been actively hiring more project managers and where they deploy their managers.

Does anyone have any idea pls? many tks.