Stratech Group

[littleones]

Brilliant

If such a historical approach (rather than "forward looking approach") is taken, then Stratech is quite worthless.

wow so we have to assume you are brillant enough to forecast margins double of Changi for the new projects? Why don't you answer the discussions directly since I have to help you dig out the margins for FY2009-10 after my repeated questioning?

Forward looking has to be anchored on track record else what is the difference betwen dot com forward looking? Maybe that's where you get your original 50% margins from... thin air

You should not use 2009 as the starting point as that is the year FAA did an extensive testing of the iFerret over a one year period before giving its approval to iFerret in 2012. So the actual starting point for commercial award of contract should be from 2012 onwards. Since then it got 3 contracts. Besides the 6 runway airport, I understand iFerret is also extensive tested in Miami, Doha (Qatar) and Colombo. Currently the USAF is integrating iFerret BDA with their BDA software

2009 is the starting point where they actually have revenue and income from iFerret for you to make REASONABLE PnL estimate.

Even if we say starting from 2012 then it has say 2 (3?) project wins with revenue FY2016 and zero for 2012-2014. But since CP is not interested in history so basically you think it will get another 8 contracts this year? They better have a lot of spare capacity to do a lot of tests, rather than like us running numbers in spreadsheets and looking at history

They had three fresh contracts since 2012. By the way do you notice Stratech had employed quite a few project managers recently?

[specuvestor]

I don't watch their staffing closely. There are many knowledgeable VBs here who probably can give us an estimate how fast these project managers gear up the learning curve and be deployed?

Based on this the military airfield is a "deployment"
http://www.thestratechgroup.com/aboutus_milestones.asp

Maybe there's a play of words here... is "deployment" equal to contract "wins" ie show me the $? I don't know.

Add: There is a press release here from the same company website so there is $ for FY2014-5 on the airfield deployment:
http://www.thestratechgroup.com/news/p_news141.html

iFerret is currently deployed at the following 6 airports:-

1. Changi Airport
2. Chicago O’Hare International Airport
3. Dusseldorf International Airport (Germany)
4. Dubai International Airport
5. Hong Kong
6. Undisclosed military airport ("one of the world’s top Air Forces")

[littleones]

I don't watch their staffing closely. There are many knowledgeable VBs here who probably can give us an estimate how fast these project managers gear up the learning curve and be deployed?

Based on this the military airfield is a "deployment"
http://www.thestratechgroup.com/aboutus_milestones.asp

Maybe there's a play of words here... is "deployment" equal to contract "wins" ie show me the $? I don't know.

iFerret is currently deployed at the following 6 airports:-

1. Changi Airport
2. Chicago O’Hare International Airport
3. Dusseldorf International Airport (Germany)
4. Dubai International Airport
5. Hong Kong
6. Undisclosed military airport ("one of the world’s top Air Forces")

Once the USAF has determined iFeret BDA can integrated seamlessly with their BDA software, it will be deja vu for Stratech. I had every reason to believe it will be a positive development for Stratech

[Curiousparty]

http://www.businessinsider.com/sector-pr...012-8?IR=T&

Based on the info on this website, Net profit margin for Info Tech sector (current) is in the range 16 to 20%.
I finally used 20% as NPM as an approximate basis.
_____________

http://www.gurufocus.com/sector_shiller_pe.php

For P/E ratio, technology sector is 19.3.
____________

[Curiousparty]

At a steady state,

Key assumptions are (might be flawed)
1. 33% of revenue each year goes to partners for each airport (just a general assumption)
2. $47mil over 7yrs = $6.7 mil per year (Hong Kong airport case, just an example)
3. So, Stratech gets to keep say $4.5mil per year.
4. NPM = 20%. So net profit per year (over the 7 yr period) = $0.9mil (per airport like Hong Kong)
5. Say, overall, Stratech manages to secure contract for 15 airports at steady state, we would have ~ $13.5mil per year (over 7 yrs)
6. Assume P/E of 19, market cap works out to be $256 mil.

Current market cap ~ $55mil

[flanforever]

The key lies in using vision technology and Stratech's proprietary software developed and fine tuned over the past decade. This results in an image taken of an unlit runway at night that similar to one taken during day time. This is the edge that iFerret has over other systems

iFerret does not have an edge when other competitors are using radar image which does not have trouble at all during night time. It just nullified it's weakness, that's all.

Competitor's:
The FOD Finder detection system was able to detect the objects of various shapes, sizes, and materials on runway surfaces, taxiways, and aprons, and was able to perform satisfactorily in nighttime, daytime, sun, rain, mist, fog, and snow.

Can iFerret works under rain, mist, fog and snow?
Probably this is why it won at Dubai and Hong Kong.

Just looking plainly at anecdotal evidence:-
a. How is it possible that iFerret managed to oust the incumbent and other competitors at the Dubai airport ?
b. And this is not once but twice. Then it managed to oust its competitors again at Hong Kong airport....
c. Thirdly, why is iFerret being deployed in the airbase of one of the world's leading Air Force?

Is the above mere coincidence of triple events?

Tks.

The above same questions can be asked.

How did iFerret got oust by xsight in below airports?
"FODetect is operational and protecting aircraft operations at Logan Airport in Boston, Tel AvivBen-Gurion International Airport and Bangkok Suvarnabhumi International Airport. FODspot™subsystem has been acquired by Paris’s Charles de Gaulle International Airport."

And this is not once but twice, how did iFerret being FAA approved but still being oust by xsight in Seattle-Tacoma Airport? (Sept. 23, 2014)

How did iFerret got oust by qinetiq in below airports?
Heathrow International, Vancouver International, Doha International and MOD Boscombe Down (UK RAF).

Source: http://fod-detection.com/2011/09/16/faa-...od-finder/

[littleones]

At a steady state,

Key assumptions are (might be flawed)
1. 33% of revenue each year goes to partners for each airport (just a general assumption)
2. $47mil over 7yrs = $6.7 mil per year (Hong Kong airport case, just an example)
3. So, Stratech gets to keep say $4.5mil per year.
4. NPM = 20%. So net profit per year (over the 7 yr period) = $0.9mil (per airport like Hong Kong)
5. Say, overall, Stratech manages to secure contract for 15 airports at steady state, we would have ~ $13.5mil per year (over 7 yrs)
6. Assume P/E of 19, market cap works out to be $256 mil.

Current market cap ~ $50mil

My guesstimate for Stratech is that it's share price should be above 25 cents this time next year, bringing its market cap to at least $375 million

[getrich]

Giving aggressive earnings forecast is just playing with fire.

If someone files a formal complaint with MAS, it just increases the likelihood that you'd get invited to have a coffee session at MAS.

[littleones]

The key lies in using vision technology and Stratech's proprietary software developed and fine tuned over the past decade. This results in an image taken of an unlit runway at night that similar to one taken during day time. This is the edge that iFerret has over other systems

iFerret does not have an edge when other competitors are using radar image which does not have trouble at all during night time. It just nullified it's weakness, that's all.

Competitor's:
The FOD Finder detection system was able to detect the objects of various shapes, sizes, and materials on runway surfaces, taxiways, and aprons, and was able to perform satisfactorily in nighttime, daytime, sun, rain, mist, fog, and snow.

Can iFerret works under rain, mist, fog and snow?
Probably this is why it won at Dubai and Hong Kong.

Just looking plainly at anecdotal evidence:-
a. How is it possible that iFerret managed to oust the incumbent and other competitors at the Dubai airport ?
b. And this is not once but twice. Then it managed to oust its competitors again at Hong Kong airport....
c. Thirdly, why is iFerret being deployed in the airbase of one of the world's leading Air Force?

Is the above mere coincidence of triple events?

Tks.

The above same questions can be asked.

How did iFerret got oust by xsight in below airports?
"FODetect is operational and protecting aircraft operations at Logan Airport in Boston, Tel AvivBen-Gurion International Airport and Bangkok Suvarnabhumi International Airport. FODspot™subsystem has been acquired by Paris’s Charles de Gaulle International Airport."

And this is not once but twice, how did iFerret being FAA approved but still being oust by xsight in Seattle-Tacoma Airport? (Sept. 23, 2014)

How did iFerret got oust by qinetiq in below airports?
Heathrow International, Vancouver International, Doha International and MOD Boscombe Down (UK RAF).

Source: http://fod-detection.com/2011/09/16/faa-...od-finder/

We should make the comparison after FAA approval of the first 4 systems in 2012. How many contract wins Stratech has compared to its competitors. That should give you a better picture

[specuvestor]

At a steady state,

Key assumptions are (might be flawed)
1. 33% of revenue each year goes to partners for each airport (just a general assumption)
2. $47mil over 7yrs = $6.7 mil per year (Hong Kong airport case, just an example)
3. So, Stratech gets to keep say $4.5mil per year.
4. NPM = 20%. So net profit per year (over the 7 yr period) = $0.9mil (per airport like Hong Kong)
5. Say, overall, Stratech manages to secure contract for 15 airports at steady state, we would have ~ $13.5mil per year (over 7 yrs)
6. Assume P/E of 19, market cap works out to be $256 mil.

Current market cap ~ $50mil

My guesstimate for Stratech is that it's share price should be above 25 cents this time next year, bringing its market cap to at least $375 million

I can only say this: At least CP gives some numbers....

So CP has become quant guy using reference to S&P500 tech company margins & ratios for a Singapore value forum. And up the ante to 15 airports. Brilliant. I guess that ends my involvement here.

I thought I needed to instill some rationale into this thread as this forum has been great for me and doesn't deserved to be discredited by one thread. Caveat Emptor I think the info in the debate is sufficient for readers, "don't know" is not valid anymore.