Oil Prices

Let me add-on one more forecast, from World Bank and IMF

"In January 2015 The World Bank released its Commodity Forecast, which predicts that world crude oil price will fall from $96/barr. in 2013 to $53/barr. in 2015. According to Commodity Price Forecast from IMF released in Jan. 2015, spot average price fore crude oil will fall from $96.3/barr. in 2014 to $56.7/barr. in 2015"

and more data/charts from the site below

http://knoema.com/yxptpab/crude-oil-pric...and-charts

I assume the forecasts from World Bank and IMF, should be FA-based, but I don't bother to find out. There are just another two forecasts, and will never be used in my stock selecton process.

(05-02-2015, 12:02 AM)yewkim Wrote: I sold Nam Cheong at 35c, bought 32c and sold Ezion at 1.35, bought 1.265 today for some nice profit. I bought them yesterday morning. I am making use of the current weakness in oil. I did post at 3pm( post # 421) that oil was edging down tonight before it come to pass. This I was right again. Will be looking to get back to both counter or other. I think both counter will be under pressure tomorrow. If you got these 2 counters, just sit tight, that is my suggestion for now.

Hi yewkim,

Sorry to hijack this thread, but how did you short the 2 counters overnight? I thought that SGX only allows naked shorting within a day. Or maybe there are some changes that I am not aware of?

Food for thought.....

If the so-called demand supply equilibrium of oil is at 90m barrels and traders stored 25m barrels, does that meant that actual USAGE d might actually be much lower than the 90m barrels. Unless there is a drastic cut in supply or that hoarders continue to HOARD if not there will continue to be more supply vs demand

Oil traders to store millions of barrels at sea as prices slump
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102335399

Why the US is going to lose the oil price war

January 14, 2015
Leonid Bershidsky

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/w...z3OmwM3gT3

The Beginning of the End of the Fossil Fuel Revolution
(From Golden Goose to Cooked Goose) by Jeremy Grantham (Pg 12)

(05-02-2015, 12:01 PM)grubb Wrote:

(05-02-2015, 12:02 AM)yewkim Wrote: I sold Nam Cheong at 35c, bought 32c and sold Ezion at 1.35, bought 1.265 today for some nice profit. I bought them yesterday morning. I am making use of the current weakness in oil. I did post at 3pm( post # 421) that oil was edging down tonight before it come to pass. This I was right again. Will be looking to get back to both counter or other. I think both counter will be under pressure tomorrow. If you got these 2 counters, just sit tight, that is my suggestion for now.

Hi yewkim,

Sorry to hijack this thread, but how did you short the 2 counters overnight? I thought that SGX only allows naked shorting within a day. Or maybe there are some changes that I am not aware of?

You misunderstood me. I bought following oil big surge, and sold them yesterday.
You think oil is done. But that is still early, we will see later. We are only into one session, let see going forward to be more affirmative.

There are no sure thing, But if oil stay above 50$ , then it got more height to scale. No doubt, fundamental wise it is still bad. I still think it can go higher.

Last night, oil was a disaster as those who bought earlier turn seller after news of inventories at record high, thus cause downward presssure on price.

Let watch tonight.

In all true honesty, don't trade, do value investing and teach them to your kids.

In order to win big in trade, you got to bet big. And if one bet big, most likely his emotion come to play and that will distract them and cause them to lose eventually.

Then, why you trade, u said. Well, it is human part of us to bet. U see those TOTO, no doubt we all know too well it is against us , but we still bet anyway on the hongbao draw. The word is GREED. So bet small, you lose small, no worry, this i hear from one uncle who buy toto. The same thing with football too. He is right.

Bet small does not means a few bucks, but the amount you can lose without you losing your sleep. So to me , for example, i can afford to lose 10K, but to you maybe you can lose 5K comfortably so as to say.

The best is still buy solid OnG to ride the oil back up to 65$/70$. I believe Ezion will be close to 2$ if oil is close to 70$. Wish you all the best.

Tonight , i think oil will go above 50$ . I think i will be right again hopefully, at time of this post, it is trading at 49.40.

(05-02-2015, 06:46 PM)yewkim Wrote: The best is still buy solid OnG to ride the oil back up to 65$/70$. I believe Ezion will be close to 2$ if oil is close to 70$. Wish you all the best.

Hi yew kim,

Not to be offending, im geninuely surprised u consider ezion to be a solid oil and gas bet. They are highly geared. Amongst, I am vested in penguin and if u put a gun on my head, I may choose mermaid.

Could u share why you are in ezion, and to some extent erza?

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Hi Yewkim,

Thanks for your reply, and the warning. I only pick one ETF which holds E&P companies - you are right, I don't think any ETF can track WTI over the long term. I don't trade often, last year I made two trades! What I'm looking to see is ways to know when a long term downtrend has turned, for any market, not just oil.

Lets see if oil keeps rising in the next few days...

Ok. Let mod move these posts if so.

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