Oil Prices

[yewkim]

I think we have enough of argument going no where. U just let market prove the FA of crude oil over the next few months, barring any unforseenable event that will choke the supply of oil. If not 65$/70$ is still prevail. 44$ bottom is the low of this year.

We are in a fast moving world, if too slow you will be left behind.

Thank you for all your contributions and sorry if i had offended you. Bye and good luck, back to the market.

[yewkim]

There is FA involved in oil, though like I said oil price is very complicated due to export cartel and geopolitics. In general I don't bother to guesstimate oil price. But this time round the big swing is actually shale so it is relatively easy to monitor that.

Good thing about threads is that you can see the chronology of events. We had already been talking about shale bust in early December before you joined the discussion so you can have a look back

We had already discussed about shale more than a year ago when these reports were coming out. More importantly the physical markets and prices were reacting yet there were still skeptics on shale

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5526-...l#pid91168

I doubt Saudi or OPEC suddenly just woke up on the emergence of shale. What has changed since then was Russia/ Ukraine

Honestly we are no longer looking at emergence of shale anymore. We are looking at the bust of shale. No doubt there will be survivals but it's gonna be pretty ugly. Like i posted prior in this thread, they are the unfortunate collateral damage

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5541-...#pid100091

I think what we are confused about is your swing in TA within a span of 2 months when the FA trend is pretty clear. Like I said I have never seen anyone done this successfully over the LONG term, even professional traders.

I believe oil still got lot more to go down. I bought ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO) 2 weeks ago, already make good profit. I think support at 60$ broken, next worse case will be 40$. But i will be using trailing stop to protect my profit. Why not use this instrument to profit? JMO

Wow, bernasib baik malam ini.. sold all SCO, take half at 77, then see it falling take all at 75.. if not now too late, looking to get back soon. I think it should be able to get back above 60$ soon. But after a fall so steep, it may take a while. Hope all are doing well too. If you got short position, do please be alert. I guess oil n gas counters play could start soon. Today, I bought into 2 oil counters. I do have strict stop loss enshrine. But this does not means oil have found a bottom. Oil is just having a bounce here. Good luck to all.

Finally, oil is building up strength to cross 60$ above. I bought into UCO n DIG one day after i book profit for SCO, join me? It is still early. And back in SGX, I bought vallianz and Pacific R to ride oil back up above 60$. Wish me luck.

No one can tell the future or is there such a thing call oracle. Market is base on supply and demand. Now the demand is weak. We should use that weakness to our advantage. It is true someday oil will eventually go up. But that will be long time away. When demand go up or oil output are reduce because of low price, then oil px will go up. But i think the latter will be the reason for quite sometimes.

Actually, oil at this level, no doubt near bottom, but in % wise it is still far, and as it closes to bottom, it is easier to play the ride up.

I still think all OnG which soar recently will fall hard later. Be careful.

Today, seen like I am right again, oil go above 50$, now it is currently trading at 51.17, tonite that where the firework( volatility) will begin. Years of watching price action has taught me to be alert to market action. Oil is one. I watch it last Friday and yesterday and arrive at a conclusion, so i posted here to share.

I didn't say TA is useless but that it is just one of the catalyst. This will be my last response to you if you still just focus solely on TA, as like I said focusing just on TA is a waste of time in the longer term. BTW we have been there done that so it is not that we are ignorant. I am specuvestor

I already told you i apply both, Please don't misquote me.

And please don't say that this is your last, you are welcome here as long as we live.

And if you still think so, then let it be so. it cannot be otherwise, Egoism learn nothing.

we must change fast with the market. Thus when market reverse, i was the very first who post here to share with you people at 1am Friday last week.

If you think it is useless,,well just anyone will do, message me personnally, and i will not post a single word from now.

[CityFarmer]

It seems more of a debate on FA vs TA on oil price trend, than oil supply-demand discussion.

I tried to read between lines on yewkim's post. She said FA+TA was applied, but it seems only the TA, am I read it correctly?

I saw demand/supply was mentioned, but I assumed it is the demand/supply of crude oil market, rather than the energy demand/supply. The demand/supply of crude oil market is volatile over days, or even within a day. I don't think the energy demand/supply will change much over days, or even weeks.

There may be the reason why only yearly forecast of oil price from IMF/World bank, rather than a monthly or daily forecasts.

Regards
Cityfarmer

[BlueKelah]

Oil Bust Hits Pockets of Aberdeen's Diamond Merchants
(Bloomberg) -- In Aberdeen, a city built out of granite on Scotland’s North Sea coast, a diamond merchant checks the price of oil every day.

Until recently, the dealer, Oscar Ozdaslar, had been accustomed to North Sea oil workers stopping in to buy 3,500-pound ($5,260) diamond rings and earrings in his store on Union Street.

“This Christmas was very quiet compared to the Christmas before,” said Ozdaslar, 50. “The oil guys didn’t come in.”

Just six months ago, Aberdeen was the economic linchpin of Scotland’s campaign to split from the U.K. as oil traded above $100 a barrel. In the wake of the independence referendum’s failure, it serves as a microcosm of how crude’s slump to nearer $50 is hurting cities from Calgary to Kuala Lumpur.

“Aberdeen has been the focus of a classic oil boom,” said Gordon Hughes, a professor of economics in the University of Edinburgh and a former energy adviser to the World Bank. “There’s no doubt that the city will go through a bad period now that it’s over.”

What’s more, the North Sea basin is among the most expensive in the world from which to extract oil. About 20 percent of U.K. production is “uneconomic” at $50 a barrel, trade group Oil & Gas U.K. says.
1980s Feel

BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley said this week it feels like the 1980s when he was living in Aberdeen working as an artificial lift engineer for Amoco before it merged with BP. Prices fell about 70 percent in a few months after Saudi Arabia increased production and didn’t recover until 1990.

Regions worldwide that depend on the industry are having an “enormous shock,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

At Cafe Boheme, a French restaurant across the street from Ozdaslar’s jewelry store, customers including Royal Dutch Shell Plc canceled about 30 Christmas bookings in December, said Dominique Mancellon, who owns and runs the eatery.

Staff from companies including Shell, Statoil ASA and Petrofac Ltd. make up about half of his customers. Sales will fall about 10 percent for the 12 months through July after increasing every year in the past decade, he said.

“If the price of oil stays down, we’ll have to be very careful about how we run our business,” said Mancellon, 56, as he prepared cheese plates and glasses of white wine.

Read more here on Bloomberg

[Layman A]

Some people like to fit the scenerio of 1930s and 1980s into the current world.
It is like trying to fit a baby diaper into a giant butt.
1930s there is great depression.
1980s there is Stagflation, the economy is US is really really bad.

Don't forget there are 2 giants just waking up from deep sleep less than a decade ago. ( China has 1.4 billion population, India has almost 1.3 billions )
China is using current situation to scoop up as much cheap oil as possible ( go Google ).
I believe India is doing likewise.

Go Google Toyota, Nissan car sales worldwide. You get record breaking numbers.
And the total car growth is going on in a scary pace.
Mind you, with the crude oil price collapse, the car numbers is going to grow even faster.

Then why oil price collapse ?
There are too many greedy monkeys jumping into the wagon at one time, shale oil driller must take the most blame.
These jokers thinks that crude oil will be above US$100 FOREVER !

Now, reality is oil is trading at half of the amount, US$50.

Now, use your common sense,
with all these monkeys suddenly drilling at a loss, most have to pull out and call it a day, or go belly up sooner or later.

The demand side of the oil may be exceeding the supply side sooner than what the so called "experts" choose to believe.

Mark my words.

Oil Bust Hits Pockets of Aberdeen's Diamond Merchants
(Bloomberg) -- In Aberdeen, a city built out of granite on Scotland’s North Sea coast, a diamond merchant checks the price of oil every day.

Until recently, the dealer, Oscar Ozdaslar, had been accustomed to North Sea oil workers stopping in to buy 3,500-pound ($5,260) diamond rings and earrings in his store on Union Street.

“This Christmas was very quiet compared to the Christmas before,” said Ozdaslar, 50. “The oil guys didn’t come in.”

Just six months ago, Aberdeen was the economic linchpin of Scotland’s campaign to split from the U.K. as oil traded above $100 a barrel. In the wake of the independence referendum’s failure, it serves as a microcosm of how crude’s slump to nearer $50 is hurting cities from Calgary to Kuala Lumpur.

“Aberdeen has been the focus of a classic oil boom,” said Gordon Hughes, a professor of economics in the University of Edinburgh and a former energy adviser to the World Bank. “There’s no doubt that the city will go through a bad period now that it’s over.”

What’s more, the North Sea basin is among the most expensive in the world from which to extract oil. About 20 percent of U.K. production is “uneconomic” at $50 a barrel, trade group Oil & Gas U.K. says.
1980s Feel

BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley said this week it feels like the 1980s when he was living in Aberdeen working as an artificial lift engineer for Amoco before it merged with BP. Prices fell about 70 percent in a few months after Saudi Arabia increased production and didn’t recover until 1990.

Regions worldwide that depend on the industry are having an “enormous shock,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

At Cafe Boheme, a French restaurant across the street from Ozdaslar’s jewelry store, customers including Royal Dutch Shell Plc canceled about 30 Christmas bookings in December, said Dominique Mancellon, who owns and runs the eatery.

Staff from companies including Shell, Statoil ASA and Petrofac Ltd. make up about half of his customers. Sales will fall about 10 percent for the 12 months through July after increasing every year in the past decade, he said.

“If the price of oil stays down, we’ll have to be very careful about how we run our business,” said Mancellon, 56, as he prepared cheese plates and glasses of white wine.

Read more here on Bloomberg

[Boon]

Oil Price Predictions Are Both Science And Art For Energy Analysts

By Maria Gallucci 
February 05 2015

http://www.ibtimes.com/oil-price-predict...ts-1806986

[yewkim]

It seems more of a debate on FA vs TA on oil price trend, than oil supply-demand discussion.

I tried to read between lines on yewkim's post. She said FA+TA was applied, but it seems only the TA, am I read it correctly?

I saw demand/supply was mentioned, but I assumed it is the demand/supply of crude oil market, rather than the energy demand/supply. The demand/supply of crude oil market is volatile over days, or even within a day. I don't think the energy demand/supply will change much over days, or even weeks.

There may be the reason why only yearly forecast of oil price from IMF/World bank, rather than a monthly or daily forecasts.

Regards
Cityfarmer

Good morning Moderator

My apology. But it was a forumer who comment on my post, thus I reply in that sense which is TA. Sorry about this.

But I think I would like to clarify my TA is deeper type than those use by trader. And I apply FA as well, I have spent tons of money on these course as well, through courses i have learn and has great indepth into market price action, which pretain to the law of supply and demand. The market price action is pricing oil right now and right here into the FA of oil some 6 months away, as market is always 6 months ahead of the real economy.This is because market think oil demand is going to be higher going forward.

Yes, i think those who disagree should just keep to themselves, and those agree should discuss what step to take to profit from this oil saga, instead of opposite view that end up debating no end, It spam this thread and also both party end sour. In the end, neither of them benefited.

My apology to all here if i ever offended you, words alone are not good expression of my real intention. But truely we must change fast with the market. In fact, if market price action dictate us to do so like last Friday when oil surge of 8% reversal, I take it seriously , thus I post here to share fast. My view of oil has since change to bullish.

Thanks you. I am truthly sorry for starting all this. But I still think oil is heading higher, 65$/70$ is my opinion. Thanks again.

[Boon]

These Experts Know Exactly Where Oil Prices Are Headed

Somewhere Between $30 and $200 a Barrel

By'Tom Randall

February 7, 2015

The outlook on oil prices is clear: Oil will crash. Unless prices surge. Definitely one or the other..........................................

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...are-headed

[Layman A]

Ok, I get it now !

By re-phrasing the so called expert "forcast" into " Wish List ", it will put things into better perspective.

1. Goldman Sach and UBS wish that Oil will go to US$30 .
( Don't need to explain here as they are short seller big time. )

2. OPEC , while bleeding badly now, wish that Oil will go beyond US$200 .

3. BP CEO, current bleeding badly, like to paint a scary scenario, so that to fend of the new comer from crowding the playground further.

Make sense ?

These Experts Know Exactly Where Oil Prices Are Headed

Somewhere Between $30 and $200 a Barrel

By'Tom Randall

February 7, 2015

The outlook on oil prices is clear: Oil will crash. Unless prices surge. Definitely one or the other..........................................

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...are-headed

[specuvestor]

Wow nice collectively they were right 20 years ago and can be right even 20 years later Maybe they were ex-economists