Oil Prices

This is a value investing forum, and the focus should be still in FA.

Having said so, VB shouldn't act like a purist, and ban all other ideas, and opinions. As long as the focus remains on FA, a FA + ( a bit of ) TA should be OK, IMO

Please continue with the discussion, and so far so good to me. A gentle reminder, focus on issue, rather on person.

Thanks

Regards
Moderator

TA or FA is just a mean. The real thing is the price you paid is it value for money at that time? But nobody can guarantee it still value for money in future. Another words who really knows?

(04-02-2015, 10:09 AM)HitandRun Wrote:

(04-02-2015, 09:45 AM)sgd Wrote: I think this could be the reason for recent rebound. workers strike means nobody producing oil --> which leads to temporary reduction of supply --> short term only lah

http://time.com/3691801/u-s-oil-workers-...ince-1980/

You are very funny.

Refinery strike => Less Fuel produced => Less Crude Oil required => Demand for Oil drops => which theoretically should cause crude oil price to drop, tio boh?

A strike means less fuel produced but demand is always constant,

now with oil price lower you drive car any less? do people commute less? use computer less? they turn on less street lighting at night? So there's always demand and is more or less always stable there

so demand will consume existing glut prices have a chance to appreciate until the strike is over.

(04-02-2015, 11:21 AM)sgd Wrote: A strike means less fuel produced but demand is always constant,

now with oil price lower you drive car any less? do people commute less? use computer

Demand for fuel, e.g. mogas or distillate might be constant, but how much crude oil can you pump into your car? If the problem is strike in refinery, one would expect crude to trade lower while mogas and distillates might trade higher....

That's why WTI is trading to discount to Brent again

In my personal experience trading without fundamentals will not get very far. TA is one of the catalysts one should look out for. But to trade just base on TA is a gamble unless one is taking advantage of some structural issues eg scalping.

If one's entire premise is just TA, I have yet to know anyone who does it successfully over the long run.

If the net effect of the strike is pushing up crude oil price, then why should the Oil companies tackle the crisis quickly ?

It would be in their interest to drag the issue as long as possible !
( Left you lose, right I win ! )

Or may be the oil companies and the workers are just playing a drama show for the world to see !

The drama could go on and on for many weeks in my opinion.

(04-02-2015, 09:45 AM)sgd Wrote: I think this could be the reason for recent rebound. workers strike means nobody producing oil --> which leads to temporary reduction of supply --> short term only lah

http://time.com/3691801/u-s-oil-workers-...ince-1980/

(04-02-2015, 12:26 PM)Layman A Wrote: If the net effect of the strike is pushing up crude oil price, then why should the Oil companies tackle the crisis quickly ?

It would be in their interest to drag the issue as long as possible !
( Left you lose, right I win ! )

Or may be the oil companies and the workers are just playing a drama show for the world to see !

The drama could go on and on for many weeks in my opinion.

(04-02-2015, 09:45 AM)sgd Wrote: I think this could be the reason for recent rebound. workers strike means nobody producing oil --> which leads to temporary reduction of supply --> short term only lah

http://time.com/3691801/u-s-oil-workers-...ince-1980/

Ah ha ... oil companies don't speculate in oil price like the way we invest in stocks and shares they are in the business to produce oil they have customer obligations meet orders to fill who's going to fill those orders when workers go on strike? So of course it's in their interest to resolve and not let the issue drag. Tio boh??

I think the bottom is most likely already in, but there is little reason for oil prices to move back up to $80 or $70 now. The oversupply situation hasn't changed much, and its very easy to restart shale oil production so a V-shaped recovery in oil prices will worsen the glut very quickly.

I'm of the view that the marginal producers need to go out of business before there can be any sustainable recovery. Its not going to happen so easily or quickly, it will be a long drawn out process.

(04-02-2015, 12:55 PM)sgd Wrote:

(04-02-2015, 12:26 PM)Layman A Wrote: If the net effect of the strike is pushing up crude oil price, then why should the Oil companies tackle the crisis quickly ?

It would be in their interest to drag the issue as long as possible !
( Left you lose, right I win ! )

Or may be the oil companies and the workers are just playing a drama show for the world to see !

The drama could go on and on for many weeks in my opinion.

(04-02-2015, 09:45 AM)sgd Wrote: I think this could be the reason for recent rebound. workers strike means nobody producing oil --> which leads to temporary reduction of supply --> short term only lah

http://time.com/3691801/u-s-oil-workers-...ince-1980/

Ah ha ... oil companies don't speculate in oil price like the way we invest in stocks and shares they are in the business to produce oil they have customer obligations meet orders to fill who's going to fill those orders when workers go on strike? So of course it's in their interest to resolve and not let the issue drag. Tio boh??

Tio,Tio,Tio... 100%, but only 9 out of 150 over refineries in the US on strike, is definitely a non issue. So I do not think strike is the cause of the surge in oil prices. You watch the strong buying up, you know there are something more than that.

Waiting to see 54$/55$ soon. If this is taken and stay strong, 44$ is confirm the bottom. And we are not going to see this price for a long time.

And I some what agree that we may not see 80$ to 100$ for along time too, unless there are great happening to choke the supply of oil.

CF

Is it just me or are forumners really uninformed?

Crude Oil Vs Refined Products (such as mogas (aka gasoline or petrol), aviation fuel, heating oil, polymers, etc.)

The only end customers of physical crude oil are refineries. As far as I know, nobody in the civilised world uses crude oil in its raw form.....