Oil Prices

[specuvestor]

Those yet to get out of O&G is probably too late to do so now. IMHO the short upswing is here with the expected shale output plateauing/ peaking/ inflexioning in next 2 months but unlikely to surpass $70 until Ukraine is resolved.

As per discussed earlier in this thread:

PS besides the fundamental reasoning, there are reasons why bear markets are generally thrice the velocity of bull markets

Spot oil has gone lower low but oil stocks generally have not. Mr Market is already talking

WTI has been trading at premium prior to 09 as US is the largest importer of oil ie natural demand and quality is better than Brent.

However since the rise of shale oil, it has been starting to tradie at discount. Some say it is due to logistics and infrastructure constraints in Cushing Oklahama due to sharp rise in shale oil. But the inventory at Cushing has gone down since 2013 but discount persisted.

I leave it to you to figure out in this thread why it is back to parity and possibly normalise back to a premium to Brent soon.

"Monitoring and might be vested"

For all we know , the real reason behind this "low" oil price is a pact on Russia and possibly countries in the ME to listen to the US and OPEC.

China's HUGE storage on super tankers and also Singapore's very own oil caravan is not there for nothing.

Time to look into oil and gas counters?

[BlueKelah]

I don't argue with the market. Tonite, oil is showing very strong support at 48$ level, if resistance 50$ is taken( very likely base on tonight showing), I think OnG counter will soar with it. I have sold with small profit.

Look like 50$ will be surpass by end of the day. I am glad that happy time are here for OnG counter again, i think so.


I think time to load OnG counters for now. Market situation has change very fast.


No doubt, oil fundamentally is still bad, but market is forward looking. Whatever data we heard are already history, like China manufacturing slow and so on. Market are pricing into the future of stimulus, and QE by CB.


I think I will be looking to buy Ezion, Kepcorp, and Mermaid.


Lastly, I hope moderator do not mind my non related post on oil which are mostly base on my personnel opinion. Thanks you for your kindness.

all this talk of support and resistance sounds pretty traderish and looks like trying to predict the market based on technical analysis.

There has been no sudden change to demand and production continues to flood the market. Unless OPEC cuts production or some other mid-east crisis / war, very unlikely prices recover in any significant way. In which case you would be stuck in Ezion, Kepcorp, and Mermaid. Would be premature to decide on your investment strategy otherwise. Of course if you can demonstrate where the value and MOS is for Ezion, Kepcorp or Mermaid at current prices that would be more helpful.

[yewkim]

FA and TA should go hand in hand. After spotting a value counter, now we should use TA to get it as cheap as possible.

FA plus TA equal FATA, sound like prosper. I learn it from a seminar.

Today, seen like I am right again, oil go above 50$, now it is currently trading at 51.17, tonite that where the firework( volatility) will begin. Years of watching price action has taught me to be alert to market action. Oil is one. I watch it last Friday and yesterday and arrive at a conclusion, so i posted here to share.


If 52$ taken chances 55$, and most OnG will soar further and higher. Today, Ezion, Nam Cheong and a few have soar. Get in and enjoy the ride.


Anyway, kepcorp, Mermaid, and Ezion are all good FA counter. Coincidentally, i come across this article in fool too..... http://www.fool.sg/2014/12/02/these-shar...es-around/


Market is always 6 months ahead of the real economy. I believe you all hear this. Market are pricing into the future. Never argue with the market. We are too small.

[BlueKelah]

Actually, oil at this level, no doubt near bottom, but in % wise it is still far, and as it closes to bottom, it is easier to play the ride up.

I still think all OnG which soar recently will fall hard later. Be careful.

This was just your opinion last week which has changed as fast as the oil price. You dun seem to be taking your own advice.

FA and TA should not go hand in hand, combining both is just stupid IMHO. Perhaps it would be helpful to read this.
What is the difference between fundamental and technical analysis?

True value counter are usually boring and not much to T.A. about. Value investing is not about timing the market as TA does.

If TA can get something as cheap as possible everyone would be rich. No need to give seminars to unsuspecting public touting FA+TA nonsense. By the way, by attending seminars, its the organizers who will "FATA" not the attendees.

Still think its too early to make bets on any oil related stocks, unless one thinks they are good value now and able to go long on them. There is still a very good chance oil goes lower and stays low for an extended period. The past half year trend is still a very steep one down.

-- via Xperia Z1 with tapatalk

[yewkim]

Actually, oil at this level, no doubt near bottom, but in % wise it is still far, and as it closes to bottom, it is easier to play the ride up.

I still think all OnG which soar recently will fall hard later. Be careful.

This was just your opinion last week which has changed as fast as the oil price. You dun seem to be taking your own advice.

FA and TA should not go hand in hand, combining both is just stupid IMHO. Perhaps it would be helpful to read this.
What is the difference between fundamental and technical analysis?

True value counter are usually boring and not much to T.A. about. Value investing is not about timing the market as TA does.


If TA can get something as cheap as possible everyone would be rich. No need to give seminars to unsuspecting public touting FA+TA nonsense. By the way, by attending seminars, its the organizers who will "FATA" not the attendees.

Still think its too early to make bets on any oil related stocks, unless one thinks they are good value now and able to go long on them. There is still a very good chance oil goes lower and stays low for an extended period. The past half year trend is still a very steep one down.

-- via Xperia Z1 with tapatalk

TA can get cheap, at least you know roughly, better than throwing caution to the wind.

But if you still think so , then so be it. I cannot change your opinion. But TA do work as FA do fail at time too. Likewise, too i would said if FA can always work, then we would all be rich. This is show of been not realistic.

In this world , there are no absolute right or wrong. In another word, there are no 100% sure thing.

There is a place which all thing do not follow, that is the center of a black hole as in astronomy.

But oil is trying to do a reversal, we must change with market. If market change right now, we too must follow, don't instead that oil is fundamental bad.


Later if you see all OnG counter soar leaving you behind, you will regret, and please do not insult other by using the word stupid. I bought Nam Cheong @32c, and Ezion at 128. and another 2 counters, all already in nice profit.


I did my best and share with you all at 1am last nite, when I realize that oil is going to reverse fast, after watching market several session last week. (read the time of my post, oil was at 48/49)


Oil is doing a reversal, I see oil at 65$/70$ this year, If reversal fail( very unlikely, it already has broken strong resistance) then we see 35$.

And last but not least, i read your last sentence, saying " The past half year trend is still a very steep one down."is that not part of TA too?

And if moderator think i am too much, do send me a warning. Thank you for this forum. I profited from curiosparty chipES, make very nice profit, as CDW too from blueKelah..I think so. So I think i could share too from my observation of oil price action, so you all profit too.

[HitandRun]

Bluekelah and Yewkim sans

I do not see any inconsistency in yewkim's position. He is a trader. His fundamental knowledge of oil industry sucks (to be fair, the average knowledge among valuebuddies is not high either). As long as he makes money, he does not have to be married to his position or opinion.

Meanwhile, although crude oil appeared to have bottom out in mid-Jan '15, many of the stocks that I track bottomed out 1 month earlier, in Dec '14, e.g. Continental and SM Energy have rebounded 50% and 65% respectively from their lows in Dec. Even Ezion is up 30% from its low in Dec.....

[HitandRun]

One other thing: IMHO, one of the key reasons for the strong rebound could be due to short covering more than anything else.

[yewkim]

One other thing: IMHO, one of the key reasons for the strong rebound could be due to short covering more than anything else.

At first, I thought it was short squeeze last Friday, when oil soar 8%. I don't think it is totally a short covering from my observation, over the last few session last week.

And I am not a trader , I would like to say 50/50, value investing is still mostly the way for me. I apply FA and TA and do read and follow coy report closely too.

Now still not late to get back to OnG. My target price for oil is 65$/70$, if 50$ does not hold, we will still see 35$ bottom. Take care.

[sgd]

I think this could be the reason for recent rebound. workers strike means nobody producing oil --> which leads to temporary reduction of supply --> short term only lah

http://time.com/3691801/u-s-oil-workers-...ince-1980/

[HitandRun]

I think this could be the reason for recent rebound. workers strike means nobody producing oil --> which leads to temporary reduction of supply --> short term only lah

http://time.com/3691801/u-s-oil-workers-...ince-1980/

You are very funny.

Refinery strike => Less Fuel produced => Less Crude Oil required => Demand for Oil drops => which theoretically should cause crude oil price to drop, tio boh?