Tokyo Electric Power

[Thriftville]

Anyone vested in TEPCO?
I've done some studies on this company & find it not a bad investment for long term.

Sorry for posting in this section, as there's no Tokyo Stock exchange section.

[sgd]

I was thinking the same thing too but recently in the news the japanese government is going to take it over.

[Thriftville]

Yup, that news cause the share price to fall further. But the authorities insist they wont privatize it.
Instead they setup a new public-private entity. So that TEPCO can take money out from that entity while in need. Then return money when its financial is healthy later.

[belgarathc]

I have also been following the stock for a while. Hoping to catch another BP.

[nutty]

Very interested in this stock, but is wary about the impact of compensations.

Affected Japanese farmers are protesting vehemently these few days.

[Thriftville]

Very interested in this stock, but is wary about the impact of compensations.

Affected Japanese farmers are protesting vehemently these few days.

there are about 80k people being forced to migrate. Tepco is paying them SGD $15k per household. So that's about SG $600m (assume 2 person per house)

I think need to wait for the latest quarter report to really see the impact. I'm not worried about compensation. The expensive one is the alternate fuel cost. Tepco needs to burn diesel to make up for the lost nuclear power. In 2007 earthquake, they spent about SG$6b on fuel.

[karlmarx]

i don't think this is another bp. tepco's only source of power are those reactors which are in the process of being shutdown. which means its income producing portfolio is gone.

[Thriftville]

Tepco doesn't have BP's luxury of owning so much assets (oil fields), which can be sold for cash. So they have a big problem to recover from this disaster, unless gov intervene to help. Good thing is that the gov has to help, for the sake of Jap economy.
Poor Tepco lost 4 nuclear plant at Fukushima (going to be decommissioned by Toshiba in 10 years, cost about $3b USD), and left with 7 at Kashiwazaki (3 still under repair from 2007 earthquake). Another 6 plants (2 at Fuku Daiichi & 4 at Daini) might be restored in another 3 years.

In short, if Tepco's nuclear operation is down, the margin is affected due to swing in oil & gas prices.

List of power plants:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Elect...er_Company

[belgarathc]

To karlmarx, Nuclear is not Tepco only source of power even though the margin is higher.

From Wikipedia,

* Hydro: 160 / 8.521 million kW
* Thermal (oil, coal, LN(P)G, geothermal): 26 / 36.995 million kW
* Nuclear: 3 / 17.308 million kW
* Wind: 1 / 0.001 million kW
* Total: 190 / 62.825 million kW

[Thriftville]

attached is the analyst report from MF. They are quite pessimistic, but its a good read.