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31-08-2011, 06:51 PM
(This post was last modified: 31-08-2011, 11:19 PM by dydx.)
(31-08-2011, 10:50 AM)yyt Wrote: Since liquidity does seems to be relatively low, coupled with such a distribution in shareholdings, would you agree that the chance of revaluation of this counter upwards towards the NAV is going to be pretty slim?
I believe NGI's low liquidity is due to (1) the free-float shares are already mostly held by well-funded longer-term investors attracted by the quality aspects of the underlying gifts business and the large size of the reserve assets, as well as the year-after-year good dividends, and (2) the share price remains too low.
I guess nobody can predict with certainty what Mr Market would do to a grossly under-priced counter like NGI. Just for discussion, what would happen to the share price if NGI, without any prior indication, announces a special dividend of $0.10/share - which can be easily funded by the group's existing cash reserve of $13.0m, or proceeds from an en bloc sale of the 12 factory units at 50 Playfair Road?
This is what happened to San Teh - another grossly under-priced counter! - last Friday (26Aug11). And what happened on Monday (29Aug11)? San Teh's share price shot up to an intra-day high of $0.69, from $0.39 which was the closing price on 26Aug11.
By the way, NGI closed up $0.015 (or 8.6%) at $0.19 today, with only 12 lots done. So it doesn't require much market capital to raise the price of a grossly under-priced stock!
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11 years of Noel gift's AR.
Download before they find the loop hole. 
http://www.lib.nus.edu.sg/nus/hl/annrep/noel.html
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06-09-2011, 08:49 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-09-2011, 08:55 AM by yyt.)
Some of my numbers.
Code: FCF Analysis 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
# of Shares 102,476,024 102,476,024 102,476,024 102,476,024 102,248,024
FCF $2,345 $2,019 $221 $952 $1,756
Div $1,025 $1,537 $1,025 $5,021 $2,289
FCF payout 44% 76% 464% 527% 130%
Div/Share $0.01000 $0.01500 $0.01000 $0.04900 $0.02239
FCF/Share $0.02288 $0.01970 $0.00216 $0.00929 $0.01717
FCF is pretty erratic due to investment properties, taking that away, it is more consistent.
FCF payout ratio is relatively healthy for 2010 at 44% which is pretty appealling.
However, from history, we can't say that they have a div policy, or even a pseudo policy.
Code: Profit Analysis 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Rev $24,425 $23,299 $23,048 $16,304 $15,809
COGS $(12,764) $(11,707) $(12,418) $(8,644) $(8,735)
Gross $11,661 $11,592 $10,630 $7,660 $7,074
Gross Margin 48% 50% 46% 47% 45%
Net P $3,678 $1,558 $4,326 $2,293 $10,745
Net P Margin 15% 7% 19% 14% 68%
Admin Expense $5,838 $6,174 $5,025 $3,573 $3,486
Distribution Expense $3,236 $3,058 $3,120 $2,794 $2,047
Gross Margin is extremely attractive at ~50%.
But the NetP not very consistent, probably due valuation of their investment property (between 7 to 20%)
Growing concerns of distribution cost and admin expenses.
Doubled in 3 years, probably due to Humming but profit did not double.
Code: Debt Analysis 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
LT Debt $200 $226 $171 $26 $15
Interest $5 $9 $14 $18 $47
ST Debt $3,041 $2,803 $4,112 $2,578 $3,870
ST Assets $14,358 $12,895 $16,518 $12,199 $17,275
Current Ratio 472% 460% 402% 473% 446%
Debt/Share $0.032 $0.030 $0.042 $0.025 $0.038
Cash/Share $0.098 $0.076 $0.077 $0.081 $0.124
Nuff said. Almost Pristine
Code: Group Interest Total Area psf Value Stake
50 Playfair Road 100% 23,391 $480* $11,227,680 $11,227,680
1 Balmoral Crescent 25% 16,096 $1,660* $26,719,360 $6,679,840
33 Rochester Drive 100% 1,216 $1,430* $1,738,880 $1,738,880
*personally estimated numbers not from AR
Total $19,646,400
Property/Share $0.19
MOS 50% $0.10
Properties+cash-total Debt
= $0.1624 (or $0.2524 without MOS)
Would have to look their investments again.
How astute they are (or were). LOL
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Higher gross profit margin could be lifted by income generated from investment properties, just my guess.
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07-09-2011, 11:31 AM
(This post was last modified: 07-09-2011, 03:55 PM by yyt.)
(07-09-2011, 10:54 AM)freedom Wrote: Higher gross profit margin could be lifted by income generated from investment properties, just my guess.
That is true. But the effect is negligible, their main incomes still comes from the gift business
Nice margins for rental income.
It does seem that the seems Fairplay and Balmoral Crescent properties are the main contributors having 40% margins, since they are there pre and post 2008.
[wrap]
[table=Rental Analysis '000]
Rental Income
Rental Expenses
Rental Profit
Rental Profit Margin[/table]
[table=2010]
$230
$136
$94
41%[/table]
[table=2009]
$246
$146
$100
41%[/table]
[table=2008]
$308
$248
$60
19%[/table]
[table=2007]
$340
$204
$136
40%[/table]
[table=2006]
$304
$123
$181
60%[/table][/wrap]
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On 16Sep11, ex-ED Wong Koon Hong (James), brother of Alfred Wong Siu Hong, MD, added 67 lots and paid $0.187/share, and also raised his family's (including shares held in the name of his wife, Mdm Lim Yew Lian) total shareholdings in Noel to 5.05%, crossing the 5% mark for the first time.....
http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument
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The latest FY11 (ended 30Jun11) AR makes interesting reading....
http://info.sgx.com/listprosp.nsf/07aed3...1002228da/$FILE/Noel%202011%20AR.pdf
Today (10Oct11), Noel's share price has convincingly crossed the important $0.20 mark and is now trading at the $0.225 - $0.23 level. It looks like the release of the FY11 AR has done the trick!
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Just checked my bank account and noted a nice credit from Noel's $0.015/share Final dividend for FY11. Feeling great!
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1H(ended 31Dec11)/FY12 results just out and NP is down to only $56k.....
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...F003EB562/$file/Noel_HYA_FY12.pdf?openelement
Main reason seems to be higher admin. expenses related to start-up of new gifts operations in Kuala Lumpur. Any cause for concern?
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Hi dydx,
I feel that the strengths of the company remain fundamentally unchanged - strong balance sheet, leading position as gifts company in Singapore, strong brand, hidden property value in balance sheet and good dividends.
The only thing I can't figure out is whether these higher admin expenses are mainly attributable to starting up the new KL operation (in which case this poor earnings performance should only be a one-off) or whether the management truly has problems controlling other costs (marketing, manpower) across the organisation (which will be a worrying problem). Pg 6 of the report is my source.
What do you think?
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