Invest on quantitative financial numbers;disregard all other qualitative aspects

[CityFarmer]

yes, done correct is the key.

One example is desperate seller (especially major shareholder).

Recall UIS:
when Laxey selling heavily...
the stock drop to 35% off its NTA.

it's a closed end fund aka like unit trust and ETF which usually selling at NTA.

At that point in time, I dare says that only buyer with guts feeling will dip their toes.

Unfortunately, I did not.

I waited until UIS do it's stock buy-back then initiate my game plan.

Now, with formal training by Joel...
I hope to profits more from it.

Really appreciate your tips.

once a teacher... will be my teacher for life.


A Life not Reflected is a Life not Worth Living.

Instead of hijacking this thread for more discussion, we can share our experience in other specific threads, with "real" case study. The previous cases shared were EliteKSB, and F&N.

Wish you all the best for the new "Joel" strategy. It is going to be a very rewarding venture...

[YMPL]

An interesting read. I am very interested to read more on big-data approach on investment, an emerging and promising quant approach?


Quant on quant: picking winners in the era of machine investing

Bloomberg
05/06/17, 08:32 am
(June 5): The burgeoning field of computer-driven investing has grown so large and complex that a Singapore family office has decided you need a quant to find the right quants.

Multi-family office Gao Capital plans to open Asia’s first independent research service for investors that’s focused exclusively on funds employing quantitative models. Gao Capital’s research has involved scrutinising the funds’ correlations to market moves and to one another, as well as risk and volatility measures.

“We want to be the stamp of approval for quant funds,” said Chauwei Yak, who co-founded Gao Capital in 2008 in New York before moving to Singapore two years later. “Our aim is to help people find the right quant fund for their portfolio.”
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/quant-q...-investing

[Jacmar]

An interesting read. I am very interested to read more on big-data approach on investment, an emerging and promising quant approach?


Quant on quant: picking winners in the era of machine investing

Bloomberg
05/06/17, 08:32 am
(June 5): The burgeoning field of computer-driven investing has grown so large and complex that a Singapore family office has decided you need a quant to find the right quants.

Multi-family office Gao Capital plans to open Asia’s first independent research service for investors that’s focused exclusively on funds employing quantitative models. Gao Capital’s research has involved scrutinising the funds’ correlations to market moves and to one another, as well as risk and volatility measures.

“We want to be the stamp of approval for quant funds,” said Chauwei Yak, who co-founded Gao Capital in 2008 in New York before moving to Singapore two years later. “Our aim is to help people find the right quant fund for their portfolio.”
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/quant-q...-investing

Another "fund of funds" in a different flavor and another under-performing asset class. All it does is just add another layer of fees. already the funds in general is under-performing due to high fees and a double layer of fees isn't going to do better. pass

[YMPL]

An interesting read. I am very interested to read more on big-data approach on investment, an emerging and promising quant approach?


Quant on quant: picking winners in the era of machine investing

Bloomberg
05/06/17, 08:32 am
(June 5): The burgeoning field of computer-driven investing has grown so large and complex that a Singapore family office has decided you need a quant to find the right quants.

Multi-family office Gao Capital plans to open Asia’s first independent research service for investors that’s focused exclusively on funds employing quantitative models. Gao Capital’s research has involved scrutinising the funds’ correlations to market moves and to one another, as well as risk and volatility measures.

“We want to be the stamp of approval for quant funds,” said Chauwei Yak, who co-founded Gao Capital in 2008 in New York before moving to Singapore two years later. “Our aim is to help people find the right quant fund for their portfolio.”
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/quant-q...-investing

Another "fund of funds" in a different flavor and another under-performing asset class. All it does is just add another layer of fees. already the funds in general is under-performing due to high fees and a double layer of fees isn't going to do better. pass

This is the reported performance, since 2008, based on the article. I assume quant's fee is lower than the typical 2/20 fees. 

"Gao Capital targets annual returns of between 15 and 20% on its quantitative portfolio and has met that goal in most of the past years without a single down year, Yak said."

[specuvestor]

I find it ironic that “Goldman Sachs never tells clients to make decisions solely on the basis of its models’ findings.” Yet billions are poured into quant and factor funds. 32 outcomes in World Cup vs countless for investment outcomes.
————
Goldman Sachs’ statistical model for the World Cup sounded impressive: The investment bank mined data about the teams and individual players, used artificial intelligence to predict the factors that might affect game scores and simulated 1 million possible evolutions of the tournament. The model was updated as the games unfolded, and it was wrong again and again. It certainly didn't predict the final opposing France and Croatia on Sunday.

The failure to accurately predict the outcome of soccer games is a good opportunity to laugh at the hubris of elite bankers, who use similar complex models for investment decisions. Tom Pair, founder of the Upper Left Opportunities Fund, a hedge fund, tweeted recently:


Tom Pair
@TomPair2
UBS ran 10,000 simulations and forecasted Germany to win the World Cup. Goldman Sachs ran 1,000,000 simulations &… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Sent via Twitter for iPhone.View original tweet.
Of course, past data don’t always predict the future; Goldman Sachs never tells clients to make decisions solely on the basis of its models’ findings. And in any case, the model only generated probabilities of winning a game and advancing, and no team was given more than an 18.5 percent chance of winning the World Cup. The moral of the story is probably that buzz-generating technologies such as big data and AI don’t necessarily make statistical forecasting more accurate.

-snip-

Thanks to the use of more granular data, made possible by AI, this year’s model should have worked better than the 2014 one.

If anything, it worked worse.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/...-all-wrong

You study the quant numbers, PnL, B/S, cashflow, relative valuations, chart formations, etc for 3 months and they announce M&A tomorrow

Numbers don't make things happen. We live in an age where people think numbers are reality when they are mere pale reflection of reality. Reflection yes but pale. People make things happen and it is generated into numbers, not the other way round.

Like I said, listco are at least 3 layers: the asset, business and structure. PEOPLE controlling the structure control the previous 2... that is why you have S-chip and value traps.

As usual 中庸之道