26-01-2018, 06:40 PM
(This post was last modified: 26-01-2018, 06:58 PM by specuvestor.)
Hi psslo
My point is that now is a bull market but urgent needs are agnostic to market highs or lows. When you are forced to liquidate when illness strike or kids need money for business etc, or simply panic (equities dropping 1/2 within course of 30 years period is not unusual) The scenario of 1973 with cash depleted and adjusted to 3% withdrawal give you a rough idea what happens when markets were sideways. Try telling the Japanese pensioners this chart for the past 27 years. 生命无NG
Neither am I saying allocate 100% bonds that will deplete when withdrawing 5% annually but it offers an alternative to minimise capital loss when one needs money at the worst possible time. I’m saying both asset classes has its purpose and not so straight forward as Ms Teh wrote
Similarly like what thinknotleft mentioned, $1m in 1976 will put you in top 1% of population but in 2007 not really. I didn’t want to nitpick but there need to be some inflation adjustment factor. That’s why bonds return over the period is a good gauge of opportunity cost. I didn’t want to mention this but I think STI dropped 1/2 during 1997/98 which doesn’t look like it in the chart.
Ms Teh is a good journalist
NB we also mentioned a bit about inflation here:
https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3828...l#pid95192
My point is that now is a bull market but urgent needs are agnostic to market highs or lows. When you are forced to liquidate when illness strike or kids need money for business etc, or simply panic (equities dropping 1/2 within course of 30 years period is not unusual) The scenario of 1973 with cash depleted and adjusted to 3% withdrawal give you a rough idea what happens when markets were sideways. Try telling the Japanese pensioners this chart for the past 27 years. 生命无NG
Neither am I saying allocate 100% bonds that will deplete when withdrawing 5% annually but it offers an alternative to minimise capital loss when one needs money at the worst possible time. I’m saying both asset classes has its purpose and not so straight forward as Ms Teh wrote
Similarly like what thinknotleft mentioned, $1m in 1976 will put you in top 1% of population but in 2007 not really. I didn’t want to nitpick but there need to be some inflation adjustment factor. That’s why bonds return over the period is a good gauge of opportunity cost. I didn’t want to mention this but I think STI dropped 1/2 during 1997/98 which doesn’t look like it in the chart.
Ms Teh is a good journalist
NB we also mentioned a bit about inflation here:
https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3828...l#pid95192
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)