Bet big in times of crisis: GCP Global's Gabriel Yap

[weijian]

The market has been very cheerful with rising prices, buy outs, and good daily volume since the start of 2017.

I think this will be a good year with more participants lured back into the market.

We could have a 15%-20% correction (due to whatever unexpected event) but with current valuations (not cheap but also not ridiculously priced) a 50% crash will require a most impactful event.

I think we have yet to witness the euphoria leading to market peaks.

I think one hint of market peak is that when you yourself (and everyone else) feels like an investment god. Then better be very careful then.

After some years of the bull, i observed that OPMIs can generally be classified into 2 breeds in terms of temperament. The first breed are generally more optimistic and easily buy early during rallies and dips. The 2nd breed are generally more sceptical/cautious, they don't buy into rallies but once a rally "has legs", it delivers the proof to those 2nd breeds for them to eventually turn bullish (and usually late).

Sometimes, market participants also need to classify into whether 1st or 2nd breed. And then, have to ownself ask ownself "which breed am i actually?"

[funman168]

Too early to sell, market euphoria had not even started.

I do agree for STI index euphoria has not started. But what do u think about Dow or S&P index? If dow drops 20% don't u think STI will be affected as well?

DJ likely to range. Hot $ likely to come Asia to speculate the markets.

[karlmarx]

After some years of the bull, i observed that OPMIs can generally be classified into 2 breeds in terms of temperament. The first breed are generally more optimistic and easily buy early during rallies and dips. The 2nd breed are generally more sceptical/cautious, they don't buy into rallies but once a rally "has legs", it delivers the proof to those 2nd breeds for them to eventually turn bullish (and usually late).

Sometimes, market participants also need to classify into whether 1st or 2nd breed. And then, have to ownself ask ownself "which breed am i actually?"

opmi: That is indeed a very good reminder. Pride does come before downfall. Thanks.

weijian: I'm a penny pincher who dislikes buying at higher prices. For 2016, my new investments only make up 10% of my total portfolio value. For 2017, I bought nothing to date. I'm still looking to buy but everything looks expensive to me. Two years ago, I wanted to buy Fischer Tech at $0.55 and was not willing to pay more as a form of MOS as I lack of understanding of their business. I never chased and just decided to turn my attention elsewhere (not without cursing, though).

[Temperament]

After some years of the bull, i observed that OPMIs can generally be classified into 2 breeds in terms of temperament. The first breed are generally more optimistic and easily buy early during rallies and dips. The 2nd breed are generally more sceptical/cautious, they don't buy into rallies but once a rally "has legs", it delivers the proof to those 2nd breeds for them to eventually turn bullish (and usually late).

Sometimes, market participants also need to classify into whether 1st or 2nd breed. And then, have to ownself ask ownself "which breed am i actually?"

opmi: That is indeed a very good reminder. Pride does come before downfall. Thanks.

weijian: I'm a penny pincher who dislikes buying at higher prices. For 2016, my new investments only make up 10% of my total portfolio value. For 2017, I bought nothing to date. I'm still looking to buy but everything looks expensive to me. Two years ago, I wanted to buy Fischer Tech at $0.55 and was not willing to pay more as a form of MOS as I lack of understanding of their business. I never chased and just decided to turn my attention elsewhere (not without cursing, though).

1st breed is buy all the way down in a Bear Market until chickened out.

@nd breed will buy only when the Bear Market starting to consolidate.

i.e. very little action left in the market (almost bottom)?

It means  buy all the way up and wait.

Which breed will do better?

[Temperament]

Too early to sell, market euphoria had not even started.

I do agree for STI index euphoria has not started. But what do u think about Dow or S&P index? If dow drops 20% don't u think STI will be affected as well?

DJ likely to range. Hot $ likely to come Asia to speculate the markets.

i don't think there should or must have an "Euphoria" in the market before anything can happen(market turns).

[Temperament]

After some years of the bull, i observed that OPMIs can generally be classified into 2 breeds in terms of temperament. The first breed are generally more optimistic and easily buy early during rallies and dips. The 2nd breed are generally more sceptical/cautious, they don't buy into rallies but once a rally "has legs", it delivers the proof to those 2nd breeds for them to eventually turn bullish (and usually late).

Sometimes, market participants also need to classify into whether 1st or 2nd breed. And then, have to ownself ask ownself "which breed am i actually?"

opmi: That is indeed a very good reminder. Pride does come before downfall. Thanks.

weijian: I'm a penny pincher who dislikes buying at higher prices. For 2016, my new investments only make up 10% of my total portfolio value. For 2017, I bought nothing to date. I'm still looking to buy but everything looks expensive to me. Two years ago, I wanted to buy Fischer Tech at $0.55 and was not willing to pay more as a form of MOS as I lack of understanding of their business. I never chased and just decided to turn my attention elsewhere (not without cursing, though).

1st breed is buy all the way down in a Bear Market until chickened out.

@nd breed will buy only when the Bear Market starting to consolidate.

i.e. very little action left in the market (almost bottom)?

It means  buy all the way up and wait.

Which breed will do better?

And which breed most likely to catch the knife at the bottom?

Actually it's not too bad if you have paced your capital that you have catched the knife at the bottom?

Worst case is your capital runs out too early.

Or you still have 50 % capital but you chickened out.((not so good yet no so bad lah. you can sleep better at night).


And which breed may missed some good buys?

Worst case , which breed will miss most of the good oppoutunities to buy cheaply?

But most probably will missed catching the knife at the bottom. (not so bad too. you also can sleep better at night)



Any one , any variations in a BEAR MARKET?

[soros]

The 1st Breed is likely to be the value buyer who has studied the balance sheet in the Annual Reports of the company and decided the share price is well below its NAV and worth buying and is
willing to wait a few years to realise profit .

The 2 nd Breed is likely to be the short term trader who times the buying of shares by studying the price charts and indicators associated with bullish trends ) after checking the 50 day average rising above the 150 day average etc.

[opmi]

The 1st Breed is likely to be the value buyer who has studied the balance sheet  in the  Annual Reports of the company and decided the share price is well below its NAV and worth buying and is
willing to wait a few years to realise profit .

The 2 nd Breed is likely to be the short term trader who times  the buying of shares by studying the price charts and indicators associated with bullish trends ) after checking  the 50 day average rising  above the 150 day average  etc.

to add, the NAV should be growing, not decreasing...also realisable.