Homepage
PR Newswire
20-07-2017, 07:09 AM
2017 has already been a good year. Many of the small cap tech stocks that have been flagged up in VB over the last few years have performed strongly, some spectacularly. REITS have generally recovered from a swoon at the beginning of the year. So, the question is whether the good news is already largely priced in. It is certainly hard to find low hanging fruit at the moment.
At the moment assets are highly valued, with low volatility. There seems to be a general consensus that conditions are benign. Even though the developed economies are expanding and some labour markets are tight, inflation still appears subdued, leading to reduced concern over future interest rate increases. But, are we just in the summer silly season? Have asset markets been trending upwards for so long that investors have been lulled into complacency? Are we going to see real fireworks in September/October? What might trigger the fireworks?
Inflation is one concern. If this suddenly started really picking up, there could be a paradigm shift in expectations for central bank responses. China/Hong Kong is another potential trigger.There have been some quakes in the Chinese markets in the last few weeks that seem to have had no effect outside China. Hong Kong has a wildly overpriced property market combined with a stock market stuffed with stocks that I would not touch with a 10' bargepole. Or will a shift in sentiment (up or down) be due to something else completely, a black swan.
Personally, I distrust conditions that have been benign for too long. I have selectively cashed in some decent profits (many thanks to VB collectively for some great suggestions), crystallized some losses, exited the HK stock market entirely, and wait to see what the future brings. Just need to be patient, which is the hard part.
At the moment assets are highly valued, with low volatility. There seems to be a general consensus that conditions are benign. Even though the developed economies are expanding and some labour markets are tight, inflation still appears subdued, leading to reduced concern over future interest rate increases. But, are we just in the summer silly season? Have asset markets been trending upwards for so long that investors have been lulled into complacency? Are we going to see real fireworks in September/October? What might trigger the fireworks?
Inflation is one concern. If this suddenly started really picking up, there could be a paradigm shift in expectations for central bank responses. China/Hong Kong is another potential trigger.There have been some quakes in the Chinese markets in the last few weeks that seem to have had no effect outside China. Hong Kong has a wildly overpriced property market combined with a stock market stuffed with stocks that I would not touch with a 10' bargepole. Or will a shift in sentiment (up or down) be due to something else completely, a black swan.
Personally, I distrust conditions that have been benign for too long. I have selectively cashed in some decent profits (many thanks to VB collectively for some great suggestions), crystallized some losses, exited the HK stock market entirely, and wait to see what the future brings. Just need to be patient, which is the hard part.