CapitaMalls Asia

[egghead]

Most brokers' (I read KE, DBS and OCBC) reports mention a S$35.9 mil divetment gain plus a S$35.9 mil re-valuation gain.

[xis]

Hi anyone here hold CMA, what your calculation of it intrinsic value? Latest Capitamallsasia Q3 patmi up by 70.8%. I think it have a good growth story, only down side was IPO at way above valuation. My valuation is around $1.48 base on property owned but with assest enhancement this should increase with times.

[egghead]

Property counters are mostly valued on RNAV basis. Most brokers calculated RNAV for CMA to be abouve $2. How do you get $1.48?

I'm also not sure why the IPO price, which is a past event, is any down side in your consideration. What's your thought on this?

[xis]

CapitaMall Asia sum-of-parts valuation.
$ Mil
Market Value CMT (29.9% stake) 2,678.22
Market Value CRCT (27% stake) 376.00
Market Value CMMT (41.7% stake) 298.00
Value of Fund Management Business 972.00
Value of Singapore Assets (ex-CMT) 2,939.96
Value of Malaysia Assets (ex-CMMT) 272.00
Value of china Assets (ex-CRCT) 3,669.00
Japan 160.00
India 92.00
Cash 975.00
Total 12,432.18
Less Debt 2037.00
Development CAPEX (Singapore) 1643.00
Development CAPEX (China) 3826.00

Equity Value 4,926.18

No. of Shares 3,885.08
RNAV/Share $1.27

I try to use sum of parts valuation but have problem understanding what to deduct from current Debt & Development CAPEX. Most of the property valuation is taken from CMA quarter report. Forget about the RNAV of $1.48 that maybe wrong too.

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Egghead question: is any down side in your consideration. What's your thought on this?

I'm a little disappointed with CMA's execution, they have delayed in their assets enhancement and opening of new Malls.
That the reason for lower price and previously Capital Group was net seller in millions.

Future should be positive if they continue with current execution and continue to re-cycle assets. But what worry me if they will to over pay for new acquisition at worng time. Which Capitaland group always do.

I see minimum down side from here but need to know what the real NAV as property valuation is usually inflated! That the reason for the high IPO price.

If we can buy 40% below RNAV that will be good protection. I bought average at $1.48 when price came down. I'm net seller at higher price now as I see short term correction. BB will want to take profit from here onwards... Will be buyer again at lower price next year, as outlook negative from now to next year. Thanks!

[egghead]

Sorry, I did not look in details on your listing of the parts in your tabulation. However, I find your CMT valuation of $2,678m rather high. Some brokers use market price of CMT to determine the value, some uses NAV, and some even using their own target price. You probably should decide what is the valuation basis and apply it consistently across all the parts where possible (e.g. for listed parts like CMT, CRCT; and those unlisted funds, development properties, and asset management business).

You misunderstood my question of "I'm also not sure why the IPO price, which is a past event, is any down side in your consideration". What I meant to ask was why having a high IPO price is a downside.

Anyway, it looks like you already profit somewhat from your CMA position so congratulation.

[xis]

Thanks Egghead for your comments will relook my valuation model for CMA which is complicated.

[Chansaiw]

Hello ,everybody here, I come from Thailand this is the stock Iread in this website
Ithas a business like CPN inTHailand in term of mall developper for retailer and funding but CMA look so much great much malls , more diversify in locations and country
CPN CENTRALPATTANA now operates 20 malls in Bangkok and upcountry , sell asset to property fund

[Ben]

Anyone took profit on this one already? It has a spectacular run for the past one year. I have been gradually taking profit since the price went past $2, and now left with 30% holding. Result announcement tomorrow.

[xis]

I bought in 2011 from $1.60 to $1.20 and hold until last year Dec 2012. Sold average at $1.80 because of other obligation.
This is a growth company still have more upside but will take time to realise, they have a great China story. Result will be good!

[Ben]

Sold my remaining shares this morning and lock in some decent profit