The bulls are charging again in Singapore

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#1
Notice that there are more and more of such articles appearing nowadays? And in the Straits Times, not Business Times. Hmmm... Rolleyes

Getting aggressive when valuations and prices are moving up? Doesn't sound like a good idea to me. Tongue

Jan 30, 2011
The bulls are charging again in Singapore

Equities moving up the pecking order with rising optimism; many investors plan a more aggressive strategy over the next six months
By Gabriel Chen, Finance Correspondent

The mood among investors is a far cry from that in 2008. The bulls appear to be outnumbering the bears now. According to a study, the top three factors seen as leading to recovery are the Government?s monetary policies (28 per cent), recovery of global markets (16 per cent) and recovery of the real estate market (14 per cent). -- ST FILE PHOTO

It is only a month into 2011 and already, several new surveys indicate that Singaporean investors are more optimistic and willing to take more risks.

Take JPMorgan Asset Management's inaugural Investor Confidence Index in Singapore released last week. Last month, the firm polled a sample of 501 investors with annual personal incomes of more than $60,000 and five years of continuous investment experience.

It found that 80 per cent of investors expect the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) to increase in the next six months.

This is on the back of the overwhelming belief that the Singapore economy is healthier, with 91 per cent of respondents saying it has 'recovered' from the crisis.

The study showed that the top three factors seen as leading to recovery are the Singapore Government's monetary policies (28 per cent), recovery of global markets (16 per cent) and recovery of the real estate market (14 per cent).

And in line with the expectation of better economic and investment conditions, 44 per cent of the investors intend to be more aggressive in their strategy over the next six months.

The bulls appear to be outnumbering the bears at this point.

Another survey by British financial firm Friends Provident International has come to a similar conclusion: investor sentiment here is high and on the rise.

The just-released Friends Provident data found Singaporean investors, who in the survey mostly fell in the middle to upper-middle income range, were more bullish about current investment opportunities than those in Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates.

The quarterly survey, which polled 2,750 people in the three markets, revealed that the number of Singapore respondents willing to invest in equities increased significantly compared to October's findings.

It also reported a slight fall in the number of respondents who believe now is a good time to invest in less risky assets such as cash and currency markets, suggesting a more confident approach to investing.

Financial advisers say that equities are moving up the pecking order and becoming a popular investment choice of late.

'For every 10 of my clients, around eight are willing to take higher risk this year by investing in equities,' said Mr Patrick Lim, associate director at financial advisory company PromiseLand Independent.

'During the financial crisis, nine out of 10 of my clients did not want to invest in equities.'

Still, investors should not bite off more than they can chew because 'when everybody is aggressive, you have to be more careful', cautioned Mr Christopher Tan, chief executive of financial advisory firm Providend.

APS chief investment officer Wong Kok Hoi agreed that when investors are feeling good about the economy and feeling bullish about stocks, you want to be on guard.

But Mr Wong added that since 'there are almost no alternative asset classes to equities in this low interest rate environment, I will not rush for the exits yet'.

Mr Jeffrey Lee, chief investment officer of Phillip Capital Management, said that in terms of valuations, the Singapore stock market is currently 'fairly valued' relative to regional peers.

'We expect the market will have 10 per cent correction in the first half of the year, and will start to go up again once inflation peaks in Asia,' he said.

gabrielc@sph.com.sg

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POSITIVE OUTLOOK [

A JPMorgan poll of 501 investors in Singapore found:

80%: expect the Straits Times Index (STI) to increase in the next six months.

91%: believe the Singapore economy has 'recovered' from the crisis.

44%: intend to be more aggressive in their investment strategy over the next six months
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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#2
Nope. Ppl are still thinking there are still more legs to run so we should be conscious but not fear everything. Its when you feel like selling your grandma to punt in mkt then that's close to the breaking point.

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#3
Revisiting this thread.

As at Jan 30, 2011, 80% of polled investors (total = 501) expected the index to go up in the next six months.

Optimism, apparently, was at a high just one month ago.....

Look how just 3 weeks has changed things... Confused
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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#4
I picked up some shares recently which should offer attractive yields in time to come. The price of these shares now is however lower than my purchase price. I am thinking of buying some more but inside me, to be honest, I am scare. Well, the famous saying "Greedy when others are scare and scare when others are greedy" is very easy to understand but not easy to put into practice. Or was it just me?
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#5
(24-02-2011, 04:08 PM)Ben Wrote: I picked up some shares recently which should offer attractive yields in time to come. The price of these shares now is however lower than my purchase price. I am thinking of buying some more but inside me, to be honest, I am scare. Well, the famous saying "Greedy when others are scare and scare when others are greedy" is very easy to understand but not easy to put into practice. Or was it just me?

Not easy man.

If you see your holdings and see pages for red day after day, that's quite scary. Even those I picked up because they were substantially far from my calculated intrinsic value have been bombed. This is what happens when our minds are anchored on all the gains we've seen over the last 1 and 3/4 year.

However, I've set myself up so that if a) the market resumes its run, I should see decent gains and if b) things continue to go to hell, I can pick up quality stuff cheap cheap! Having said that, I do not think valuations are exceedingly cheap at this point in time. And notice that despite the carnage, the Financial Markets haven't made the front page news yet?

I have no clue which direction the market might go or how low it'll go but I was looking at the chart for the STI. Each sustained dive in the market took at least a year before things started picking up again. As Mark Twain said, "History rarely repeats itself but it often rhymes."

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#6
good stocks, don't need to see it every day.

as long as you are not over-leverage, it is about time to slowly pick up some cheap good stocks.
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#7
I am almost 120% invested.. 20% from shared account
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#8
(25-02-2011, 12:43 AM)mrEngineer Wrote: I am almost 120% invested.. 20% from shared account

I am almost 90% in as well.
Always difficult to control myself from getting in too early.
I do think i get in too early.
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