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Dynamic Holdings 29 HK
27-09-2015, 09:42 PM. (This post was last modified: 27-09-2015, 09:44 PM by opmi.)
Post: #1
Dynamic Holdings 29 HK
Dynamic Holdings 29 HK-  Valuation HK2bn of prime cash generating assets in BJ Chaoyang and SH Lujiazui respecitvely. Net Cash. Dividend paying. Trading at >0.31 NAV. 'Free' 49% of SZ waterfront land near Qianhai. Major shareholders - Lucio Tan family. (PH tycoon, assumed chao kuan)
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster

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23-01-2016, 03:54 PM. (This post was last modified: 23-01-2016, 03:57 PM by opmi.)
Post: #2
RE: Top 5 Favourite Undervalued Companies SGX/SEHK
(27-09-2015, 09:42 PM)opmi Wrote: Dynamic Holdings 29 HK-  Valuation HK2bn of prime cash generating assets in BJ Chaoyang and SH Lujiazui respecitvely. Net Cash. Dividend paying. Trading at >0.31 NAV. 'Free' 49% of SZ waterfront land near Qianhai. Major shareholders - Lucio Tan family. (PH tycoon, assumed chao kuan)


http://xueqiu.com/3714977098/64049073

从上上周的周五开始,达力经历了一场狂风暴雪!股价在四天之间,从3.57到2.52,直接崩掉了30%!成交量也放出了2015年5月份以来的天量,4天648万!占达力总流通盘11881万股的5.45%
传递一下港股的流通盘的算法:达力集团的总股本是22355万股,其中11881万股登记在证券公司,剩下的10474万股是登记在股东自己名下,这些股份如果需要买卖,就需要转托管到证券公司才可以在场内交易。)

我们再来看这648万股都是谁在交易了:其实大家都在关注“耀才”这个席位(炒港股的会看《港股披露易》是基本技能吧。下表我列了这个数据:
     


耀才2015年1月15号到20号达力交易情况
日期1月151月181月191月201月21日汇总
前日持仓量76182006084200478420028402001918200 
增减-1534000-1300000-1944000-922000 5700000
当日成交量1820000141000021300001120000 6480000
比例84.29%92.20%91.27%82.32% 87.96%
股均价3.12.852.72.6 2.82
套现价值4755400370500052488002397200 16106400


可见,这次达力股票下跌,是一个耀才席位派货的过程。耀才在4天之内,派了570万股达力筹码!18,19号这两天,股价波动很小,而成交量却很大,所以均价成本是很容易算出来的。所以,耀才派货,其他席位(背后是一个个独立账户)接货,是显而易见的了。

但是,耀才为什么派货?为什么要这么坚决地派货?这些背景就只能靠猜测了(我们决定不去猜测别人的隐私)。这几天,我两次打电话给达力公司,想确认公司是否发生了什么,公司都回答一切正常,不需要发什么。看起来跟达力公司本身是没有啥关联了。有关交易的部分,就谈到这里。

        再来正面说说达力公司,其实我之前有很多文章,都在正面说达力,包括(1)北京的商铺,(2)上海的写字楼,(3)深圳的合营公司圳华地块。1和2都没有问题。3的争议很大,其一,是圳华的地是不是合法的?是不是可能被政府零对价,或者低成本收回?其二,达力跟深航运的谈判到底怎样?

        对于这两个问题:第一个我可以给一个肯定的回答,地是真正的商住用地,不存在被政府无偿收回,或者低成本收回的可能性。但是,因为这个块地也属于历史遗留问题,红线图因为各种长期的问题积累,一直没有定下来,正在跟政府,合营对方谈判中,但是政府2011年的新初稿中,是一个12.3万平方米地面面积,容积率3.2,楼面面积达39.5万平方米的用地方案(圳华同意这个总面积,但是希望容积率要低一些,占地面积要大一些),这在 @今夜再出发 的文章里已经有了披露,有2011年政府批文。最多可能只是需要补一点增容积率的地价了。圳华土地的合法性是不容置疑的,价值也就不容置疑。

        第二个问题,达力跟深航运谈判,非常不透明。尽管土地周边的蛇口油气库,滨海休闲带西部D段都已经落实,可是,圳华(达力与深航运合营)与政府的谈判,包括红线图,容积率,对价等都一直没清晰,虽然,这个对于价值的影响其实并不大,可是,没清晰就是没清晰,就无法评估,也许价值很大,也许价值不如想象中的那么大(甚至远远低于预期),但是,我觉得最低最低来算,价值都不会少到那里去!达力的股票价值计算中,根本没有包含圳华的潜在增值(除了那个2.3亿的达力对圳华债权,其中自己一半,圳华似乎就一钱不值了),所以,圳华就是一个期权,或者一张彩票,只有权力,没有义务的,而且是没有时间限制的。这就是我了解到的真实情况。

        达力还在股票囚徒困境中,需要外力来打破。所以,在达力这只股票上面来股价短期投机,意义其实不大,我们是向上市公司要钱,而不是向市场要钱,市场也许是投机的,波动的,可是,你靠他弄钱,远不如向上市公司要钱可靠。
        我看过达力集团1999年以来的所有年报,1999年是达力集团谋划拥有圳华东角头地块的开始,首先,他们是提出东角头港地块工业改商住,并且控制圳华80%的股份,为此,达力既出了购买股份所需要的注册资金,也在2003年付清了东角头地块的地价(是达力大股东垫付的2个多亿人民币哦!),再后来的2004年,地铁二号线规划开建,要从圳华地块通过,而且因为中方股东深圳航运改制,80%的股权也起了争执。这个股权争执的国际仲裁官司打了好多年,最后以达力败诉结局,从此达力只占有49%的圳华股份,从2006年达力卖掉香港的达力货仓,并立即购买上海的裕景国际写字楼以后,达力的生意就停滞了,所有的工作重心都转到深圳东角头地块上。而北京的商铺和上海的写字楼,也只是正常收租而已,

        而圳华地块,却在16年的不断争执中,价值不断提升,因为他是1999年就审批,2003年交清全款,2011年政府不断协调完善的地块,也就具有非常巨大的价值。而达力在整个过程中,一直在非常努力和冷静地维护自己的权益。
        从公开信息来看,达力绝对不是老千股(老千股是有很多特征的,保守不作为并不是老千股的特征,乱来才是)。

        从大股东方面来说,一家出租地产上市公司(管理公司还是大股东的,是关联交易),里面有多达6个(去年是7个)执行董事,到底是执行什么呢?但是,虽然执董很多,佣金却都很少,全年董事总酬金才517万。2015年甚至没有一位拿全薪的执行董事了(赵少鸿先生为什么不拿全薪?我还没搞懂!)。所以,达力大股东是一个大家族(兄弟姐妹都在公司里面),兄弟姐妹们都年纪大了,富二代也不太可能在地产上面接什么班,估计还是分钱最为妥当,达力的价值实现,变成现金,也是大股东的心愿,这就是达力大小股东的共同利益其实是趋同的。

              正如蛇口东角头油气库,在天津一声巨响中结束了33年的经营,偶发事件催化完全可能发生
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster

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25-01-2016, 10:26 AM.
Post: #3
RE: Top 5 Favourite Undervalued Companies SGX/SEHK
opmi,

Dynamic Holdings ( 0029.HK) has fallen from around $3.50 level to $2.65 closing last friday. The company's main assets are in Beijing shopping mall and Shanghai office block plus 50% stake in Shenzhen company . The company paid 5.5 cents div last year and I think this can be maintained

Do you think the Dynamic shares have reached bottom yet ?

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25-01-2016, 10:52 AM.
Post: #4
RE: Top 5 Favourite Undervalued Companies SGX/SEHK
(25-01-2016, 10:26 AM)soros Wrote: opmi,

Dynamic Holdings ( 0029.HK) has fallen  from around $3.50 level to $2.65 closing  last friday.  The company's main assets are in Beijing shopping mall  and Shanghai office block plus 50%  stake in  Shenzhen company .  The company paid 5.5 cents div last year and I think this can be maintained  

Do you think the Dynamic shares have reached bottom yet ?

I guess the recent drop was caused by heavy volume, forced margin selling. the trading volume should shrink back to low volume again.
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster

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27-02-2016, 02:57 PM.
Post: #5
RE: Top 5 Favourite Undervalued Companies SGX/SEHK
(27-09-2015, 09:42 PM)opmi Wrote: Dynamic Holdings 29 HK-  Valuation HK2bn of prime cash generating assets in BJ Chaoyang and SH Lujiazui respecitvely. Net Cash. Dividend paying. Trading at >0.31 NAV. 'Free' 49% of SZ waterfront land near Qianhai. Major shareholders - Lucio Tan family. (PH tycoon, assumed chao kuan)

See the mgt discussion on the SZ waterfront land JV.

DYNAMIC HOLD (00029)
Announcements and Notices - [Interim Results / Dividend or Distribution / Closure of Books or Change of Book Closure Period]
INTERIM RESULTS
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2015
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listcone...=002439232


內地樓價癲 深圳漲52%
http://hkm.appledaily.com/detail.php?gui...e=20160227
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster

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27-02-2016, 04:57 PM.
Post: #6
RE: Top 5 Favourite Undervalued Companies SGX/SEHK
(27-02-2016, 02:57 PM)opmi Wrote:
(27-09-2015, 09:42 PM)opmi Wrote: Dynamic Holdings 29 HK-  Valuation HK2bn of prime cash generating assets in BJ Chaoyang and SH Lujiazui respecitvely. Net Cash. Dividend paying. Trading at >0.31 NAV. 'Free' 49% of SZ waterfront land near Qianhai. Major shareholders - Lucio Tan family. (PH tycoon, assumed chao kuan)
Erm Boss,

Is this a trading kind of buy? Chao kuan boss very kiam siap, not that appealing to wait it out.  Big Grin

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27-02-2016, 05:33 PM.
Post: #7
RE: Top 5 Favourite Undervalued Companies SGX/SEHK
(27-02-2016, 04:57 PM)HitandRun Wrote:
(27-02-2016, 02:57 PM)opmi Wrote:
(27-09-2015, 09:42 PM)opmi Wrote: Dynamic Holdings 29 HK-  Valuation HK2bn of prime cash generating assets in BJ Chaoyang and SH Lujiazui respecitvely. Net Cash. Dividend paying. Trading at >0.31 NAV. 'Free' 49% of SZ waterfront land near Qianhai. Major shareholders - Lucio Tan family. (PH tycoon, assumed chao kuan)
Erm Boss,

Is this a trading kind of buy? Chao kuan boss very kiam siap, not that appealing to wait it out.  Big Grin

Thats the risk. Kiam Ka Nah Boss that keeps all the cash and dont pay out anything.
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster

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27-02-2016, 09:38 PM.
Post: #8
RE: Top 5 Favourite Undervalued Companies SGX/SEHK
(27-02-2016, 05:33 PM)opmi Wrote:
(27-02-2016, 04:57 PM)HitandRun Wrote:
(27-02-2016, 02:57 PM)opmi Wrote:
(27-09-2015, 09:42 PM)opmi Wrote: Dynamic Holdings 29 HK-  Valuation HK2bn of prime cash generating assets in BJ Chaoyang and SH Lujiazui respecitvely. Net Cash. Dividend paying. Trading at >0.31 NAV. 'Free' 49% of SZ waterfront land near Qianhai. Major shareholders - Lucio Tan family. (PH tycoon, assumed chao kuan)
Erm Boss,

Is this a trading kind of buy? Chao kuan boss very kiam siap, not that appealing to wait it out.  Big Grin

Thats the risk. Kiam Ka Nah Boss that keeps all the cash and dont pay out anything.

So the strategy is loon until a greater fool more optimistic person buy from you? A lot of stamina it takes.....

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27-02-2016, 10:44 PM. (This post was last modified: 27-02-2016, 10:53 PM by opmi.)
Post: #9
RE: Top 5 Favourite Undervalued Companies SGX/SEHK
P
(27-02-2016, 09:38 PM)HitandRun Wrote:
(27-02-2016, 05:33 PM)opmi Wrote:
(27-02-2016, 04:57 PM)HitandRun Wrote:
(27-02-2016, 02:57 PM)opmi Wrote:
(27-09-2015, 09:42 PM)opmi Wrote: Dynamic Holdings 29 HK-  Valuation HK2bn of prime cash generating assets in BJ Chaoyang and SH Lujiazui respecitvely. Net Cash. Dividend paying. Trading at >0.31 NAV. 'Free' 49% of SZ waterfront land near Qianhai. Major shareholders - Lucio Tan family. (PH tycoon, assumed chao kuan)
Erm Boss,

Is this a trading kind of buy? Chao kuan boss very kiam siap, not that appealing to wait it out.  Big Grin

Thats the risk. Kiam Ka Nah Boss that keeps all the cash and dont pay out anything.

So the strategy is loon until a greater fool more optimistic person buy from you? A lot of stamina it takes.....

Yes. That can be one of the scenarios.
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster

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13-04-2016, 08:11 AM.
Post: #10
RE: Top 5 Favourite Undervalued Companies SGX/SEHK
29 HK's 49% owned land is right next to The Peninsula at SZ

http://en.nanhaicorp.com/indust01.html

http://www.scmp.com/business/article/193...ome-market
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster

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