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Usually I don't really want to comment too much on brokers' report but her NAV stated on the front page for 2020F is $1.77 and $1.95 for 2021F. You have to exclude $325m minority interest on the balance sheet that's not the listco shareholders' equity.
I think the writeoff will hit 3Q PnL and not just a simple spin off from equity line as guided by manangement, but marginal impact on NAV as it's an accounting treatment, though my own NAV guesstimate is about 10% lower
(20-09-2020, 11:15 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: CIMB report => Dec 20F => Total equity = $3487 mil => $1.95.
Currently only trading at 0.67 P/BV.
don't expect SCI's price to double a few times like iFast in the next few years. But hitting $2 should not be a tall order.
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I feel that valuation for utilities should be tied more strongly to the earning power , ie the future potential EPS.
In this regard , I would go for PE valuation method rather than Book Value method .
Tks .
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29-09-2020, 01:35 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-10-2020, 04:23 PM by Curiousparty.)
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(21-09-2020, 11:01 AM)specuvestor Wrote: I think the writeoff will hit 3Q PnL and not just a simple spin off from equity line as guided by manangement, but marginal impact on NAV as it's an accounting treatment, though my own NAV guesstimate is about 10% lower
Think it is around fair value here as a utility with results in 2 weeks and STI rebal coming
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https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...9546ba81ad
For a 50% Temasek owned entity to start commencing share buyback at such price level said a lot about what the company thinks about its own share price...
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07-12-2020, 08:54 AM
Sembcorp Provides Profit Guidance For The Second Half And Full Year Ending December 31, 2020.
https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/SEMBCORP%...eID=641637
Stay home and stay safe, everyone.
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Demerger accounting cost of S$970m for full year and still paying 4cts final
(08-09-2020, 06:58 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Now that spin off is ex and market is closed, I would think SCI should trade closer to a utility company if it can progressively increase its dividend coupled with paying down its debt for next few years as interest rate environment remains low, though management quality might not be top notch
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(23-02-2021, 09:43 AM)specuvestor Wrote: Demerger accounting cost of S$970m for full year and still paying 4cts final
(08-09-2020, 06:58 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Now that spin off is ex and market is closed, I would think SCI should trade closer to a utility company if it can progressively increase its dividend coupled with paying down its debt for next few years as interest rate environment remains low, though management quality might not be top notch
At current price of about S$1.7, its market cap is about S$3B. With its stable utility (power & waste) biz and growing urban biz, it should not be difficult to earn more than S$300M in average of the long run.
Reasonable long term return to shareholders (at least to me)
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24-02-2021, 08:17 PM
(This post was last modified: 24-02-2021, 08:19 PM by Curiousparty.)
(20-09-2020, 11:15 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: CIMB report => Dec 20F => Total equity = $3487 mil => $1.95.
Currently only trading at 0.67 P/BV.
don't expect SCI's price to double a few times like iFast in the next few years. But hitting $2 should not be a tall order.
I will continue to believe in the recovery play of SCI towards its long term potential, as pointed out by many forummers.
NAV should continue to rise. Integrated Utility player should trade at much higher than its NAV....(at least 1.5 times)
Hence, the future share price of $2.50 to $3 by end of 3-5 years should not be a tall order, barring another major world crisis (e.g. COVID Version No 2, etc).
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(24-02-2021, 08:17 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: (20-09-2020, 11:15 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: CIMB report => Dec 20F => Total equity = $3487 mil => $1.95.
Currently only trading at 0.67 P/BV.
don't expect SCI's price to double a few times like iFast in the next few years. But hitting $2 should not be a tall order.
I will continue to believe in the recovery play of SCI towards its long term potential, as pointed out by many forummers.
NAV should continue to rise. Integrated Utility player should trade at much higher than its NAV....(at least 1.5 times)
Hence, the future share price of $2.50 to $3 by end of 3-5 years should not be a tall order, barring another major world crisis (e.g. COVID Version No 2, etc).
" NAV should continue to rise. Integrated Utility player should trade at much higher than its NAV....(at least 1.5 times)"
How is "at least 1.5X" assessed?
If the utility NAV is $100 and it's allowable return is 7% on its stable business, its net profit is $7.
If it pays out all of net profit as dividend ($7), a valuation based on 5% dividend yield would derive a fair value of at most $140 (thus at most 1.4 times).
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