UK pound falls to fresh 2.5-year low against Singdollar as 'Brexit' fears persist

[corydorus]

For scotland, i agree 70% of scots are needed to vote yes to go independent. Reason being they have have been british for darn long. They are already one country people.

For BreExit, we cannot demand 70% vote to say yes to leave. UK only in EU for 40 years. And the reason they join is for economic reason not political. Now with EU trying to go one country such as immigrants. This is beyond the country allowed mandate of the people. The 3rd reason is when UK joined EU, neither did they exercise 70% vote yes to join EU.

Therefore to continue to stay in EU, you need 70% vote to say Yes. Simple majority is already unfair to the No vote yet they win against all odds. This mean is clear mandate to leave EU.

[GPD]

The facts that voting system is already so debatable directly implies that the outcome of the voting is debatable.

[sgd]

The facts that voting system is already so debatable directly implies that the outcome of the voting is debatable.

They never specifically say 2/3 so it's implied 'simple majority' Looking at the on going revolt in EU where so many want to call for a referendum the contagion likely has spread so I seriously doubt even if Britain takes a second referendum now and decide to change their mind it will not change anything.

[sgd]

For scotland, i agree 70% of scots are needed to vote yes to go independent. Reason being they have have been british for darn long. They are already one country people.

For BreExit, we cannot demand 70% vote to say yes to leave. UK only in EU for 40 years. And the reason they join is for economic reason not political. Now with EU trying to go one country such as immigrants. This is beyond the country allowed mandate of the people. The 3rd reason is when UK joined EU, neither did they exercise 70% vote yes to join EU.

Therefore to continue to stay in EU, you need 70% vote to say Yes. Simple majority is already unfair to the No vote yet they win against all odds. This mean is clear mandate to leave EU.

Long before scotland independence happens the north sea oil will have run out, a lot of their rigs are old and reaching their lifespan production has also fallen sharply so only time will tell if scotland really still want their independence my guess is it will remain with uk and get broader autonomy powers


But lets speculate. 


For them to leave UK I estimate 7-10 years if everything is smooth, joining EU will take much longer after that earliest also takes a decade from the time independence goes 'live'.

new scottish pound need to setup and they need to have independent running economy for at least a few years if not a decade before EU can consider membership otherwise it will be like greece tanking after joining only for a few years and need to get bailed out.

But long before that my guess the following not in any sequence needs to happen before independence.


1) Independence Referendum (majority vote yes to leave)

2) Who will run the new scottish government every political party also wants, so scotland elections next.

3) Interim government comes in there tons of things to do policies trade security agreements immigration.


4) Land and Sea Borders need to setup between UK Scotland probably a long wall needs to be built. Otherwise it will be a backdoor later all the illegal immigrants from EU will flood scotland by boat to try to cross over from somewhere into UK.


5) New scottish pound need to setup along with existing economy. All new currencies are liable to crash in the initial for the market to find a level so they probably need to peg it to the english pound or usd for some stability.


6) Security enforcement, going independent already so can't borrow troops or police anymore from UK and need to setup their own otherwise all the illegal mafia activities will flourish crime will soar illegal fishing poaching smuggling. Cost of setting up new military will be very expensive after that the on going market rate for is 2-3% of gdp per year, police force dunno how much it will cost. The good thing is people from scotland are already serving in both british military and law enforcement so experience and domain knowledge is not a problem, the problem is the money.


7) Last referendum vote who want to stay who wants to go before people have to physically start moving new passports identity cards issued on both sides


8) Trial independence 1-2 years before totally cut and go live. 


I see these are what is needed though maybe some of the things could be out of place or not necessary.

[thor666]

My opinion is that UK could broker a deal with scotland to maintain the Uk bloc and yet Scotland can rejoin the EU since it is still a country on its own.

Whether or not the EU wants Scotland without england is another matter for discussion.. Power and money is after all mainly based in London....

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[specuvestor]

^^Scotland is a state but not a sovereign state. For example States in US is different from provinces in China. UN or EU will not discuss directly with Scotland until it has independence

[Porkbelly]

Meanwhile, there is not a drop of concern here...Brexit? what Brexit?

[corydorus]

Meanwhile, there is not a drop of concern here...Brexit? what Brexit?

Market sentiment is something hard to predict. Like last time Greece... drag so long everyone drained ...

This BreExit very fast. People scared themselves and others. Is not so bad in reality but there will be people .. maybe News report too much. And big fund managers trying to influence the market and buy low.

[swakoo]

interesting venn diagram to show where UK is now... and where it could go next.....

[thor666]

^^Scotland is a state but not a sovereign state. For example States in US is different from provinces in China. UN or EU will not discuss directly with Scotland until it has independence

That's something new.. Didn't know that a defintion of country could possibly have less "power" than a state. Thank u for correcting.

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