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@sgd : yes quite true, EU is trying to get UK out quickly, much like a soldier with an injured leg which is starting to get infected and rot, needs to cut it off quickly before the infection spread. UK should be ok in the longer term.
@Behappyalways : It seems Soros has interest to keep EU together, he must be heavily vested there.
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26-06-2016, 10:52 AM
(This post was last modified: 26-06-2016, 10:52 AM by CY09.
Edit Reason: edits
)
We will never know who suffers more from this - UK or Germany.
However, given that one of UK sticking point was because many migrants from other EU members were coming to UK to seek a job - England unemployment rate 5% vs Europe avg (ex Germany) 10%. UK did not like that they were suffering at this.
The second aspect now there is 1 less wealthy nation to support the EU block, will Germany be economically willing to shoulder the burden when its political master wants to have the will to maintain it. And don't forget it is an impetus where other nations will want to leave. It will be interesting to see Greece etc leave EU and how much write offs German banks have to take as a result
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EU will be in a lot worst condition if they did not divorce amicably. They need UK being the 6th largest economy.
At the end of the day is not who lose more but both will try to win with closer economic corporation between 2 entities.
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26-06-2016, 04:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 26-06-2016, 06:57 PM by BlueKelah.)
I think what EU wants is to neutralize the situation quickly in order to stabilise the euro region. If they do a 2 year negotiation or drag things out, it will only add negative effect and volatility to all their economies due to the UNCERTAINTY. It took like decades for the EU agreements and trade deals to come together, wanna renegotiate new deals is not so fast or easy. Especially EU has so many party of interest. '
EU also now have ongoing migrant crisis, terrorist threat, bankrupt PIIGS nations and Ukraine issues to deal with which are all headache issues with no solution in sight, except for a big RESET.
From what i read Spain is having their elections now which hopefully they can get a leading party. Apparently since Dec last year they have no proper government. Already Italy/Spain/greek stocks crash 12%+ liao. If those countries dun get their act together (which probably will be impossible), EU/ECB will be very jialat.
IMHO probably the bankrupt EURO nations might take this confusion as a chance to default and exit the EURO. Since if the EURO is going down, not much difference for them to leave and get their currency devalued anyways. If everyone all run road together, no need to pay back EURO, there is nothing much ECB can do but to take the losses.
Besides, those country nearer the southern part of EURO which are the most badly hit by immigrants can then send their own army to secure their borders which will be an excellent excuse for politicians to leave EU. I am sure the EU countries citizens buay tahan the flood of refuges. See locally the FT problem already so many people complain liao. Imagine the christian ANG MO surely must be thinking to block the muslims. Historically those two religion are in conflict.
Doesnt look too good, carnage in stock market continue in ARAB stocks which just started trading. Risk being dramatic but maybe BREXIT IS the black swan causing the 2016 great european financial crisis. And this time there is nothing central bankers can do, all their bullets used up liao. USA FED bullets may not be enough to survive a Euro shock. And if contagion spread to China, things will be even more painful for us.
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