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Felix Zulauf: Global Stock Selloff Will Continue
13-02-2016, 09:52 AM.
Post: #11
RE: Felix Zulauf: Global Stock Selloff Will Continue
In 2008/2009, times were hard but honestly as compared to now I do not see retail shops with closed shutters, ghost logistics buildings, amazing local hotel deals on websites to fill occupancy. So the difference in now and then is the real demand sentiment is much weaker on top of the bleak future where there is low capital inflow from foreign countries (Chinese nor the western funds are coming in). From 2008 to 2014, we had chased up prices, dpus, yields which lead to higher expectations and valuations from investors and now to sustain them we have seen most of the REITs resort to financial engineering and fair value adjustments (and not actual demand growth) to maintain their yields. Last but not least, the probability of interest rates going up for next 5 years is higher than in 2008 and 09. I am not sure whether we can have the income or inflation to support and maintain the dpu growth.

All REITs will probably know how to issue rights to shore up financially but the fundemental problem is whether the underlying asset will continue to perform because of local, regional growth or even global growth? It becomes a different monster then.

Like i said earlier, just gut feel. Analysts probably can run stress test on dpus to see the impact and predict at which levels where investors would plan to withdraw their funds.

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13-02-2016, 10:23 AM.
Post: #12
RE: Felix Zulauf: Global Stock Selloff Will Continue
I think the bigger question is simply this: How much of it has been priced / overpriced in?
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13-02-2016, 11:06 AM. (This post was last modified: 13-02-2016, 11:28 AM by CY09. Edit Reason: Edits )
Post: #13
RE: Felix Zulauf: Global Stock Selloff Will Continue
(13-02-2016, 09:52 AM)mrEngineer Wrote: In 2008/2009, times were hard but honestly as compared to now I do not see retail shops with closed shutters, ghost logistics buildings, amazing local hotel deals on websites to fill occupancy. So the difference in now and then is the real demand sentiment is much weaker on top of the bleak future where there is low capital inflow from foreign countries (Chinese nor the western funds are coming in). From 2008 to 2014, we had chased up prices, dpus, yields which lead to higher expectations and valuations from investors and now to sustain them we have seen most of the REITs resort to financial engineering and fair value adjustments (and not actual demand growth) to maintain their yields. Last but not least, the probability of interest rates going up for next 5 years is higher than in 2008 and 09. I am not sure whether we can have the income or inflation to support and maintain the dpu growth.

All REITs will probably know how to issue rights to shore up financially but the fundemental problem is whether the underlying asset will continue to perform because of local, regional growth or even global growth? It becomes a different monster then.

Like i said earlier, just gut feel. Analysts probably can run stress test on dpus to see the impact and predict at which levels where investors would plan to withdraw their funds.

Its basically down to demand and supply in each sector of real estate. In office space, we do not feel the impact yet as a large portion of office spaces has not been completed. This too is applicable in the retail space where the next 3 years will see 650k sq m addition, which is less than the past three years (approx 500k sq m added).

Only the hotel sector has remained resilient even though majority of the new supply has been added. Will DPU go up or down when new supply kicks in and demand stagnates? It's anybody guess

*Guoco tower's completion is 6 month's away but about 10% (office) and 60% (retail) has been committed). This project will suck a lot of demand from existing REIT's portfolio in the vicinity. My cynical words is that the completion of the tallest building in Singapore will mark the inflexion of a new property crisis.

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04-05-2016, 04:11 PM.
Post: #14
RE: Felix Zulauf: Global Stock Selloff Will Continue
china-is-biggest-excess-mankind-has-seen-felix-zulauf
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/201...lix-zulauf
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02-06-2016, 06:16 PM.
Post: #15
RE: Felix Zulauf: Global Stock Selloff Will Continue
Claudio Grass Interviews Felix Zulauf
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3979328-...lix-zulauf


http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/201...Zulauf.pdf
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02-06-2016, 09:52 PM.
Post: #16
RE: Felix Zulauf: Global Stock Selloff Will Continue
(02-06-2016, 06:16 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: Claudio Grass Interviews Felix Zulauf
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3979328-...lix-zulauf


http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/201...Zulauf.pdf

superb interview 

his views on Europe sounds like he knows what is happening on the ground over there.
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06-06-2016, 10:43 AM.
Post: #17
RE: Felix Zulauf: Global Stock Selloff Will Continue
(02-06-2016, 06:16 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: Claudio Grass Interviews Felix Zulauf
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3979328-...lix-zulauf


http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/201...Zulauf.pdf

Thanks for sharing this!
It's useful
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17-01-2017, 12:47 AM.
Post: #18
RE: Felix Zulauf: Global Stock Selloff Will Continue
Felix Zulauf: Geopolitical Tension Impacts Markets
https://www.yahoo.com/news/felix-zulauf-...06728.html
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10-11-2017, 10:54 AM.
Post: #19
RE: Felix Zulauf: Global Stock Selloff Will Continue
Interview With Felix Zulauf On China And Late-Stage Market Melt-Up
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4122180...arket-melt
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11-11-2017, 03:03 AM.
Post: #20
RE: Felix Zulauf: Global Stock Selloff Will Continue
He predicts market downturns every year. I am sure he will be right sometime in the future. I too predicted bear market since 2010. Only nobody quotes me. I will be right too one of these days.

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