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Congrats to all vested, just a few doubts though:
1) When will be a good price to sell to take some profits? When everybody is rushing in to buy?
2) CES share price has been undervalued/depressed under its NAV for quite sometime, what makes it so sure that this year earnings is the catalyst to propel it to its actual value?
3) this year earnings is truly exceptional no doubt, but can it be replicated for the next few years?
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25-02-2015, 08:51 AM
(This post was last modified: 25-02-2015, 08:55 AM by Curiousparty.)
one should ask why does REITs trade at close to their RNAV and some even trade at premium to their RNAV price?
It is the recurring income base. CES is moving on that path 
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25-02-2015, 08:57 AM
(This post was last modified: 25-02-2015, 08:59 AM by Curiousparty.)
Out of the 44 cents EPS gain for FY2014, ~ 5 cent was due to revaluation of investment properties.
Excluding this 5 cents, we have 39 cents, which was very close to my estimate of 37 cents.
We would soon have to kiss goodbye to ~90 cents level
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
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(25-02-2015, 08:24 AM)jjlim84 Wrote: Congrats to all vested, just a few doubts though:
1) When will be a good price to sell to take some profits? When everybody is rushing in to buy?
2) CES share price has been undervalued/depressed under its NAV for quite sometime, what makes it so sure that this year earnings is the catalyst to propel it to its actual value?
3) this year earnings is truly exceptional no doubt, but can it be replicated for the next few years?
Some of your question depend on what is the price you entering into this counter, and also, how do you see the future prospect of this counter.
I have been tracking CEL for quite awhile, since the first time I bought.
CEL has a habit to finish at least 1 project every year. Then, they will use the money they earn, to roll onto the next project.
2011 - Oasis@Elias
2012 - 33M
2013 - Prive, Belsa, 100PP
2014 - My Manhattan, Belvia, ALex Central
2015 - ALex HOtel
2016 - Fulcrum, Nine Residence, Junction 9
2017 - ??
2018 - Tower Melbourne
As you may see, the project they finished, it is getting bigger and bigger. MOst of the pass project has sold out, only 100PP still left some units.
Australia development is quite a failure to CEL. If not, the TM would contribute to 2017 as the first schedule and the CUB will be on 2018. Well, all this has over. We need to move forward.
For the CUB, divestment will contribute to 2015 result.
For 2017, I would think the Doncaster project should contribute to this.
For 2018, that should be the Fernvale project.
For the investment property, this continue to bring passive income to the group moving 2015 onward.
For the Hotel, the contribution should come in after 2016.
And, there is also quite huge of HDB project they are holding now. With the HDB project earning, that should enough to give the 50% of 6 cents dividend to shareholder.
And, I am sure, CEL will continue to bid project after they finish the Alex.
Would these help you?
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(24-02-2015, 06:02 PM)CCUV Wrote: ops...only 6c...hmmm....issit a party? I am not too sure
Its higher than previous year. Like the other VB mentioned, it also depends on your entry price. Even at 98 cents high today, its better than bank interest anytime.
The thing I am scared most is not nightmares or market crashes..... Its my greed that I fear the most.
When people ask what is my target price, I never have any good answer for it because Philip Fisher said before (in Common Stock Uncommon Profit) that the best time to sell is never. Equity investment is buying into ownership, not betting slips.
The path to greatness and wealth is necessarily dangerous.... because greed is a fearsome fore that threatens your success at every step.
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Wonder why so weak, results so good yet cant fly... thought this is an undervalued gem but sigh... a pity...
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those who know this counter has either vested or waiting to sell.
NOw, it is time to let the others to know this counter. Wait for the analyst report to call for Buy, that will push the share price.
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i just hope that the company buys back more shares actively during this period as the share price stays low
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(25-02-2015, 08:59 AM)RT Knight Wrote: (25-02-2015, 08:24 AM)jjlim84 Wrote: Congrats to all vested, just a few doubts though:
1) When will be a good price to sell to take some profits? When everybody is rushing in to buy?
2) CES share price has been undervalued/depressed under its NAV for quite sometime, what makes it so sure that this year earnings is the catalyst to propel it to its actual value?
3) this year earnings is truly exceptional no doubt, but can it be replicated for the next few years?
Some of your question depend on what is the price you entering into this counter, and also, how do you see the future prospect of this counter.
I have been tracking CEL for quite awhile, since the first time I bought.
CEL has a habit to finish at least 1 project every year. Then, they will use the money they earn, to roll onto the next project.
2011 - Oasis@Elias
2012 - 33M
2013 - Prive, Belsa, 100PP
2014 - My Manhattan, Belvia, ALex Central
2015 - ALex HOtel
2016 - Fulcrum, Nine Residence, Junction 9
2017 - ??
2018 - Tower Melbourne
As you may see, the project they finished, it is getting bigger and bigger. MOst of the pass project has sold out, only 100PP still left some units.
Australia development is quite a failure to CEL. If not, the TM would contribute to 2017 as the first schedule and the CUB will be on 2018. Well, all this has over. We need to move forward.
For the CUB, divestment will contribute to 2015 result.
For 2017, I would think the Doncaster project should contribute to this.
For 2018, that should be the Fernvale project.
For the investment property, this continue to bring passive income to the group moving 2015 onward.
For the Hotel, the contribution should come in after 2016.
And, there is also quite huge of HDB project they are holding now. With the HDB project earning, that should enough to give the 50% of 6 cents dividend to shareholder.
And, I am sure, CEL will continue to bid project after they finish the Alex.
Would these help you?
Thanks, these couple of years should be fine for CES I think, the level of uncertainty comes after that
Bought at 80 cents level, regretting not buying earlier 
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25-02-2015, 09:49 AM
(This post was last modified: 25-02-2015, 09:55 AM by BlueKelah.)
(25-02-2015, 09:30 AM)westin1 Wrote: Wonder why so weak, results so good yet cant fly... thought this is an undervalued gem but sigh... a pity...
This is called priced in, everyone who is buying property stocks will know about CES and TOP of Alexandra. A bumper 44c EPS and only 6c paid out.
Market is forward looking. Besides expectations of earnings is not very clear on the Aussie side. Had TM gone ahead and to complete on time, stock would definitely have moved more.
not forgetting despite the TOPs, CES debt and gearing is still skyhigh. depending on how interest rate trending as per USA FED, this could pose a big risk.
Change of CEO with such good performance is also quite a big thing. Sure the company can give any good sounding excuse they want but could it signify things in the company not so good such that they had to "golden handshake" first?
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