Greek Default 2015 Poll

[specuvestor]

It's actually quite hard to call... my guess is that it will end with an agreement around June 30 or few days later with a technical default. That's why I didn't vote

Trick is to consider what are the scenarios when 1) Default with no agreement 2) Technical default with agreement 3) No default; and what timeline one looks at

Most people don't realise that Greece cannot be kicked out... there is no provision in the EU for that. It can only choose to get out by act of local parliament or referendum.

Either way ECB is making clear that the Greek financial system is important to the orderly monetary union mechanism and EU is getting more vested by the ECB actions. Like I said German leaders understand the implications... problem is the populace might not.

DUBLIN/FRANKFURT, June 23 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank increased its funding lifeline to Greece's banks again on Tuesday, sources with direct knowledge of the decision said, allowing the country's banks to stay open as Athens inches towards a deal with creditors.

But the latest increase, which one of the people said amounted to "a bit less than one billion euros", prompted warnings from politicians in Germany and Ireland.

It raises the amount of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to around 89 billion euros ($100 billion), a growing liability that is worrying many around the euro zone.

One of the people who spoke to Reuters said the decision had been prompted by "the positive signal from the leaders' summit meeting" and hopes that a deal was at hand.

But Ralph Brinkhaus, deputy parliamentary floor leader for German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives, criticised the decision and called on Athens to introduce controls on the movement of money instead.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/2...3D20150623

[BlueKelah]

Yes quite hard to call that's why it's interesting and exciting to vote!

Note to moderator : is there anyway to end the poll earlier than the set date?

[Fish Head]

If i am European leader, I will prefer to let them go. The reason is simple, they are simply not supposed to be part of Euro zone. A Euro zone without Greece (and a few weak economic) will be better Euro zone in long run. Shorter pain better than longer pain.

[greentea]

More blackmail/brinkmanship from Greece (how can a country hold a referendum on unconfirmed reforms/plans still being negotiated?)... not working.

Eurozone refuses to extend bailout, readies for Greek default: http://btd.sg/1IC5KTH

[lilvestor]

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06...rity/?_r=2

[CityFarmer]

Yes quite hard to call that's why it's interesting and exciting to vote!

Note to moderator : is there anyway to end the poll earlier than the set date?

I have ended it on your behalf.

Regards
Moderator CF

[BlueKelah]

Thanks moderator. I had set the poll to end roughly 1 day before 30 June, but was thinking may need to end it earlier if the news of default is earlier. As it stands, seems like default tomorrow is imminent.

One day before default it seems we have some last minute votes which brings this poll to a final tally of 15:11 in favor of default Looks like buddies majority opinion may be right again!!

thanks to all buddies who join in, its been fun, thank you for your participation.

[Big Toe]

Whether Greece will default means very little for the country itself.
If they default, it will mean they have no access to credit at all and they have no money to pensions etc(may create chaos) If they do not default, they are just kicking the can down the road, it's 300+B if I remember clearly(or somewhere along that line) It's a small country with relatively low GDP, it's even lower than Singapore. It's quite amazing they are able to accumulate so much debt.

It's like a family with very high fixed expense and borrowing money from the only creditor willing to accept them.
Situation is now the family has no money even to pay the interest on the loan. Loan is ballooning as they have not figured a way to control their expenses and still rely on even more borrowed money to fund the expenses. So the head of the household decides that enough is enough, they do not wish to pay back interest to the only creditor available to them. What happens next?

[CityFarmer]

Whether Greece will default means very little for the country itself.
If they default, it will mean they have no access to credit at all and they have no money to pensions etc(may create chaos) If they do not default, they are just kicking the can down the road, it's 300+B if I remember clearly(or somewhere along that line) It's a small country with relatively low GDP, it's even lower than Singapore. It's quite amazing they are able to accumulate so much debt.

It's like a family with very high fixed expense and borrowing money from the only creditor willing to accept them.
Situation is now the family has no money even to pay the interest on the loan. Loan is ballooning as they have not figured a way to control their expenses and still rely on even more borrowed money to fund the expenses. So the head of the household decides that enough is enough, they do not wish to pay back interest to the only creditor available to them. What happens next?

To continue with your analogy, what will a credit counselor advise? He will likely to negotiate for the interest, and make a "bearable" and likely longer repayment schedule with the creditor(s). He will also scrutinize the debtor expenses, and advice him/her to keep expenses low, but very unlikely on necessary expenses, because going concern is the basis for the repayments.

Why should the counselor/credit do it for the debtor? It is not because he/she is innocent. If ignored, it might cause social unrest, which carries higher cost for the larger community. A person with intense "hate", is a potentially dangerous person, especially so for neighbor.

(sharing a view)

[specuvestor]

If you stretch the tenor long enough... basically all debt can be repaid. Inflation alone will help to depreciate the debt on a real basis.

The difference in using household or company analogies is that household does not control the means of exchange ie currencies, and expenses does not feedback. A change in currency regime can have a short term boost on income at the expense of the aggregate wealth of the populace, and fiscal spending actually has feedback to the economy.

Hence austerity has to be sensible and sensitive to these 2 factors rather than just linear maths. Greece cant even export their way out unlike AFC cause their currency is EUR which they cant control. Like I been saying, IMF is a one trick pony.