[split] What is a realistic return on value investing?

[moneyandco]

Not auto calculated as I don't like to look at performance in 6 months time frame, but it can be worked out quickly:

31 Dec 14 price was $5.04 in previous report, now 30 Jun 15 is $5.25. Distributions for 6 months was $0.121. That makes the 6 month return +6.57%.

Thanks for the update. I reckon for those funds focus more on Singapore, will yield lower return based on YTD performance.

FYI, AVF YTD performance was 15.6%, and Yeoman Cap's was 16.2%. Both funds focus on AP, with less weighted in Singapore. Other more concentrated funds under-studies, with AP coverage, have much better performance YTD, with 20-30% return.

I have achieved a lower 9.5% YTD, with 100% in Singapore. I am having a concentrated approach in investing.

(sharing few points from last review)

Indeed that is the reason why I do not like to take short term readings, very prone to fads here & there. Almost all funds dabbling in AP have surged massively in the past 6 months due to a very strong bull run in HK, JP & CN. These 3 countries together with AU generally take up ~60-80% composition in most AP funds.

Your 9.5% YTD in Singapore alone is indeed impressive seeing that STI ETF is only +2.3%. Normally I would caution against 6 month readings meaning anything, but I'm sure you know it better than I do and seeing you are long time VB participant, you likely have seen lots of ups & downs anyway.

But let's not beat ourselves over it. A quick check on fundsupermart shows that the average SG equity focused mutual fund YTD return is 0.02%

[CityFarmer]

Not auto calculated as I don't like to look at performance in 6 months time frame, but it can be worked out quickly:

31 Dec 14 price was $5.04 in previous report, now 30 Jun 15 is $5.25. Distributions for 6 months was $0.121. That makes the 6 month return +6.57%.

Thanks for the update. I reckon for those funds focus more on Singapore, will yield lower return based on YTD performance.

FYI, AVF YTD performance was 15.6%, and Yeoman Cap's was 16.2%. Both funds focus on AP, with less weighted in Singapore. Other more concentrated funds under-studies, with AP coverage, have much better performance YTD, with 20-30% return.

I have achieved a lower 9.5% YTD, with 100% in Singapore. I am having a concentrated approach in investing.

(sharing few points from last review)

Indeed that is the reason why I do not like to take short term readings, very prone to fads here & there. Almost all funds dabbling in AP have surged massively in the past 6 months due to a very strong bull run in HK, JP & CN. These 3 countries together with AU generally take up ~60-80% composition in most AP funds.

Your 9.5% YTD in Singapore alone is indeed impressive seeing that STI ETF is only +2.3%. Normally I would caution against 6 month readings meaning anything, but I'm sure you know it better than I do and seeing you are long time VB participant, you likely have seen lots of ups & downs anyway.

But let's not beat ourselves over it. A quick check on fundsupermart shows that the average SG equity focused mutual fund YTD return is 0.02%

A very wise advice, to avoid too much focus on short-term performance. Indeed, SEHK, and China stock market, have made wonder for some funds, even among broadly diversified ones.

Slow and steady should be the way, rather than large up and down swings. I would like to refer to Lumiere Capital performance, which yearly performance has swung between +163% and -63% over the last 8.5 years. The cumulative return was 86%, thus CAGR was 7.6% to-date. Your 9 years (since inception) CAGR was 13.4%.

http://lumierecapital.com/#

Looking forward for more sharing and learning from you.

[moneyandco]

Not auto calculated as I don't like to look at performance in 6 months time frame, but it can be worked out quickly:

31 Dec 14 price was $5.04 in previous report, now 30 Jun 15 is $5.25. Distributions for 6 months was $0.121. That makes the 6 month return +6.57%.

Thanks for the update. I reckon for those funds focus more on Singapore, will yield lower return based on YTD performance.

FYI, AVF YTD performance was 15.6%, and Yeoman Cap's was 16.2%. Both funds focus on AP, with less weighted in Singapore. Other more concentrated funds under-studies, with AP coverage, have much better performance YTD, with 20-30% return.

I have achieved a lower 9.5% YTD, with 100% in Singapore. I am having a concentrated approach in investing.

(sharing few points from last review)

Indeed that is the reason why I do not like to take short term readings, very prone to fads here & there. Almost all funds dabbling in AP have surged massively in the past 6 months due to a very strong bull run in HK, JP & CN. These 3 countries together with AU generally take up ~60-80% composition in most AP funds.

Your 9.5% YTD in Singapore alone is indeed impressive seeing that STI ETF is only +2.3%. Normally I would caution against 6 month readings meaning anything, but I'm sure you know it better than I do and seeing you are long time VB participant, you likely have seen lots of ups & downs anyway.

But let's not beat ourselves over it. A quick check on fundsupermart shows that the average SG equity focused mutual fund YTD return is 0.02%

A very wise advice, to avoid too much focus on short-term performance. Indeed, SEHK, and China stock market, have made wonder for some funds, even among broadly diversified ones.

Slow and steady should be the way, rather than large up and down swings. I would like to refer to Lumiere Capital performance, which yearly performance has swung between +163% and -63% over the last 8.5 years. The cumulative return was 86%, thus CAGR was 7.6% to-date. Your 9 years (since inception) CAGR was 13.4%.

http://lumierecapital.com/#

Looking forward for more sharing and learning from you.

Thanks, look forward to learning from fellow buddies as well.

For Lumiere it's somewhat strange.

I don't follow their performance tracking, but if what you say is correct then it's really odd for a small fund that is predominantly long with a focus on small / mid caps in HK & CN to somehow manage to miss the bull run and get stuck with +86% after 8.5 years.

Many funds of similar focus are able to exceed that in just the past year alone. I'm suddenly curious as to what special stocks they are buying that is able to resist this mass herding.

[CityFarmer]

Thanks, look forward to learning from fellow buddies as well.

For Lumiere it's somewhat strange.

I don't follow their performance tracking, but if what you say is correct then it's really odd for a small fund that is predominantly long with a focus on small / mid caps in HK & CN to somehow manage to miss the bull run and get stuck with +86% after 8.5 years.

Many funds of similar focus are able to exceed that in just the past year alone. I'm suddenly curious as to what special stocks they are buying that is able to resist this mass herding.

You can get the performance info from its website, under "Performance". BTW, it is not a small fund, with AUM of more than $100 million
http://lumierecapital.com/

No further detail is given in the website, on geographical coverage, and industrial weight-age. I am speculating that there might be two reasons for the lumpy return.

- "Capital recycling" has been highlighted regularly, by the fund manager during interviews. The turnover rate might be too high, or average holding period might be too short.
- Over-concentrated weight-age in particular stock, or sector, might be the other factor

(Just share few speculative views, base on limited following on the fund)

[moneyandco]

Thanks, look forward to learning from fellow buddies as well.

For Lumiere it's somewhat strange.

I don't follow their performance tracking, but if what you say is correct then it's really odd for a small fund that is predominantly long with a focus on small / mid caps in HK & CN to somehow manage to miss the bull run and get stuck with +86% after 8.5 years.

Many funds of similar focus are able to exceed that in just the past year alone. I'm suddenly curious as to what special stocks they are buying that is able to resist this mass herding.

You can get the performance info from its website, under "Performance". BTW, it is not a small fund, with AUM of more than $100 million
http://lumierecapital.com/

No further detail is given in the website, on geographical coverage, and industrial weight-age. I am speculating that there might be two reasons for the lumpy return.

- "Capital recycling" has been highlighted regularly, by the fund manager during interviews. The turnover rate might be too high, or average holding period might be too short.
- Over-concentrated weight-age in particular stock, or sector, might be the other factor

(Just share few speculative views, base on limited following on the fund)

Thanks for the link. Took a closer look at some of their reports and you are right, there is hardly any information on the fund other than general discussions of major indices and views of a couple of companies every performance report.

I note that while they do not provide any information on the portfolio focus, many of their companies under discussion seem to do businesses mainly in Greater China, so I suppose they do at least have sizable weightage on China-related stocks.

An interesting part of the 2 fund managers' biography states:

Wong Yu Liang is the co-founder of Lumiere Capital and has more than 10 years of investment management experience. Over this period, he has had a successful investment track record which includes achieving a compounded annual return of 41% over the 6 year period from Jan 2002 to Sep 2007.

Victor Khoo is the co-founder of Lumiere Capital and has more than 10 years of investment management experience. Over this period, he has had a successful investment track record, which includes achieving a compounded annual return of 46% over the 6 year period from Jan 2002 to Sep 2007.

A fund managed by 2 gentlemen who claim to have an average track record of 44% over 5+ years which somehow degenerates to just 7.6% for the last 8.5 years does indicate that they probably got a few very lucky/good picks in the past that was not repeated in recent times.

To me it's also an affirmation that one really needs a very long period of observation before you can say with some confidence that your performance is more due to skill than luck. I did a quick study previously using STI as a proxy and preliminary data seems to suggest 20 year performance period might be the minimal time frame before we can start drawing conclusions that what we are seeing is more due to the fund manager's skills.

[moneyandco]

Hello, I hope everyone's doing OK amidst the storm? 

Results for 2015 year end is as attached.

Past reports can be found at moneyandco.weebly.com

[brattzz]

thanks money!
very fun and informative report!

Good luck!

[moneyandco]

Hi everyone, 

The past few years have not been good to most Singapore stock investors, but I still see many old timers around -  the surest sign of perseverance and vitality in here. Hope everyone continues to stay afloat! 

Past reports can also be found at http://moneyandco.weebly.com

[brattzz]

thanks ya! still having fun!!

will you continue to load up retail REITs? since now they are trending down and soon, out?

[moneyandco]

thanks ya! still having fun!!

will you continue to load up retail REITs? since now they are trending down and soon, out?

Glad to hear that! 

I have not increased my positions in retail REITs for a long time. The retail rent outlook is generally lethargic for essential goods and deteriorating for discretionary spending across most of Asia, the prices are probably buffered by low interest expectations for the short to medium term. They are at a state where there is neither a strong reason to buy nor to sell, which is actually palatable to me.