Selloff a wake-up call for investors

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#1
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It can take decades to become successful because you don't understand investment until you have been through the full cycle of boom and bust, then boom again.

It's not quite so easy as buying a few shares that pay a decent dividend and then just getting on with life. Unless you can watch your stockholding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the sharemarket.
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Selloff a wake-up call for investors

Baker Philip Baker
706 words
18 Oct 2014
The Australian Financial Review
AFNR
English
Copyright 2014. Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited.
Philip Baker

The sharemarket over the past two years has done a great job of making everyone a successful fund manager. It's been as easy as buying four bank stocks and Telstra and then sitting back watching the sun set. But this week investors got a wake-up call: It's not that easy.

Now is the time to follow the professionals. The problem is they probably made their first move a few months ago when they increased their cash holdings.

Back then the sharemarket wasn't on the front page and there were no screaming headlines.

But as it's their job every single day, they would have come into work, switched on their screens, looked at the prices in their portfolios, studied the valuations and determined that maybe it was time to lighten up.

Investors such as Geoff Wilson of Wilson Asset Management took his cash holding to around 46 per cent.

Peter Morgan, the former head of equities at Perpetual and founder of 452 Capital, has 70 per cent of his portfolio in cash.

A trap for the do-it-yourself investor on those quiet days when there's not a lot happening is to think that all is well with the world, my portfolio is good, those dividends are just going to keep rolling in.

Then, when there is a bolt out of the blue, the DIYers can be like the rabbits in the headlights.

So when shares slumped this week they turn out to be sellers, not buyers. The most successful stockpickers pay scant attention to the headlines of the day that scream deflation fears in Europe, higher rates in the US or a potential slowdown in China. For sure, they would know what's driving the market, but they tend to look through the noise.

Instead, they go immediately to the price of their favourite stocks and see how far they have fallen.

Then they would check on the price of any stocks they have had their eye on and see how far they have fallen.

It's tough because they are doing the opposite to what everyone else is doing. They are looking for a bargain or trying to determine if prices have fallen too far and valuations are now more appealing.

That's why investment is psychologically challenging – you have got to sell when everyone is exuberant, and that's hard.Stocks might get cheaper

And then you have got to buy when the headlines are screaming correction and billions have been wiped off the sharemarket.

Think of the days when shares go up, does the headline ever say billions have been added to the sharemarket?

It is hard to find people who have the right judgment to be professional fund managers. Some analysts think that despite the selloff this week stocks might get cheaper.

There has been talk on some trading desks that there's no point in buying until global bond yields rise. This week they have surprised most investors by falling as the fear of deflation takes hold.

Another key buying indicator is the US dollar. As that rises even more, it's a reflection of how well the US economy is doing. The third indicator is needing to see a substantial improvement in key European growth indicators. They have all disappointed this week with poor data from Germany causing a lot of the panic.

One thing I've learnt in 13 years of writing for The Australian Financial Review is that you can't become a smart investor in two years.

It takes much longer.

The problem that is everyone loves the quick fix, the instant gratification without the feeling of ever feeling uncomfortable or slightly uneasy.

It can take decades to become successful because you don't understand investment until you have been through the full cycle of boom and bust, then boom again.

It's not quite so easy as buying a few shares that pay a decent dividend and then just getting on with life. Unless you can watch your stockholding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the sharemarket.


Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited

Document AFNR000020141017eaai0001o
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#2
"It's not quite so easy as buying a few shares that pay a decent dividend and then just getting on with life. Unless you can watch your stockholding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the sharemarket".

Let's take a survey. How many of you here had live through at least once a 40 to 50 % portfolio decline and survive?
Start with me.
i had. This recent GFC was the most shocking to me even after living through some others 30 to 40 % declines.
WB:-

1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.

Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.

NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
Reply
#3
85 - Pan Elec Crisis,

87 - Black October

97 - AFC

07 - GFC

Hopefully not 2017
Reply
#4
(19-10-2014, 10:01 PM)Temperament Wrote: "It's not quite so easy as buying a few shares that pay a decent dividend and then just getting on with life. Unless you can watch your stockholding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the sharemarket".

Let's take a survey. How many of you here had live through at least once a 40 to 50 % portfolio decline and survive?
Start with me.
i had. This recent GFC was the most shocking to me even after living through some 30 to 40 % decline.

I had. One example is that I bought share of one company at $1.25, $0.70, $0.49. The lowest at around $0.39. Also at GFC period.
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#5
(19-10-2014, 10:04 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: 85 - Pan Elec Crisis,

87 - Black October

97 - AFC

07 - GFC

Hopefully not 2017

Very very great experience.
Reply
#6
(19-10-2014, 10:04 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: 85 - Pan Elec Crisis,

87 - Black October

97 - AFC

07 - GFC

Hopefully not 2017
Why did you left out some -Clob Saga, Sept 11?,.....

To me the next most fearsome episode was Sept 11 -The collapsed of the Twin Towers. At that time, NOl dropped to < 30 cents (don't bother to google). i was crazy then, trading Nol lol at about 70 cents. People trade in Bull Markets and i like to trade in Bear Markets. So i was crazy then. Now i know it's a wrong "Strategy of Trading." Bear Market should be long-term trading (value investing?) or trading "shorts". And Bull Market should be trading "longs".
Sorry! Remember i am a "Rojak Investor" (i try to survive in all markets)
WB:-

1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.

Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.

NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
Reply
#7
(19-10-2014, 10:04 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: 85 - Pan Elec Crisis,

87 - Black October

97 - AFC

07 - GFC

Hopefully not 2017

Someone asks, "If a market can stay more or less with out changing (side-way market), is a Bull Market or Bear Market better?"
WB:-

1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.

Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.

NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
Reply
#8
(19-10-2014, 10:04 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: 85 - Pan Elec Crisis,

87 - Black October

97 - AFC

07 - GFC

Hopefully not 2017

May I ask, if choose one, which is the "best" learning experience? (my choice is GFC)
Reply
#9
(20-10-2014, 10:42 AM)violinist Wrote:
(19-10-2014, 10:04 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: 85 - Pan Elec Crisis,

87 - Black October

97 - AFC

07 - GFC

Hopefully not 2017

May I ask, if choose one, which is the "best" learning experience? (my choice is GFC)

For me, it will be AFC in 1997 because it affected Singapore and all the SEA countries deeply. I was just a teenager back then, but even I could sense the mayhem.
My Dividend Investing Blog
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#10
(20-10-2014, 10:42 AM)violinist Wrote:
(19-10-2014, 10:04 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: 85 - Pan Elec Crisis,

87 - Black October

97 - AFC

07 - GFC

Hopefully not 2017

May I ask, if choose one, which is the "best" learning experience? (my choice is GFC)

my choice is SARS.
AFC->dot com->911->Sars (all less then 2 yrs apart)
mkt already very fearful and tired.
There are fear everywhere and it affect jobs,retail,tourism.
The thing about karma, It always comes around and bite you when you least expected.
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