Fully vested always vs Market Timing approach

[yeokiwi]

The oil price is dropping. We should see low inflation since all services and products are, in one way or another, linked to oil price.
With low inflation, the interest rate will not go much higher.

[Image: saupload_oil_inflation_1.png]

Cheaper air fare on the horizon!!!

[BlueKelah]

The US and much of Europe should still be in a recession/deflationary phase after the GFC which is masked by quantitative easing from FED and ECB. Just like Japan, a post crazy boom time recession/crisis that is coupled with astronomical debt is almost impossible to climb out of.

FED has already stopped QE3, the drop in oil price, drop in shipping, drop in commodities and drop in gold is already telling us something.

Recent history also has showed that markets corrected after the previous 2 QEs. Thus an expectation things won't end up the same 3rd time round is just insane.
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

If market doesn't tank in the next few months, you guys can start calling me crazy. Keeping more and more cash now with dividends piling up
65/35 allocation now.

[Behappyalways]

I am read Gary Shilling "The Age of Deleveraging" and a paragraph caught my eyes.....

Food For Thought

I was invited by Professor Jeremy Siegel to Wharton for a public debate on stocks versus bonds. He, of course, favoured stocks and I advocated Treasury bonds. At one point, he addressed the audience of about 500 and said, "I don't know why anyone in their right mind would tie up their money for 30 years for a 4.75% yield[the then yield on the 30-year Treasury]." I got no answer, but pointed out that unless a company merges or goes bankrupt, the maturity on its stock is infinity - it has no maturity. My follow-up question was, " What is the yield on stocks?" to which someone correctly replied, "It's 2% on the S&P Index."

So I continued, " I don't know why anyone would tie up money for infinity for a 2% yield."

[LionFlyer]

I have been doing nothing of late as well except to try to add CM Pacific during the recent pull-back. Unfortunately, I was trying to buy at below the book value (0.88) which came and went briefly.

I am not fully vested now, more like 70/30 between cash and equities. Going forward, I am cautiously optimistic. Short of a black swan event, it seems that most major macronomic issues have been discussed to death (e.g china property, de-leveraging, end of QE) and priced in.

[Temperament]

The oil price is dropping. We should see low inflation since all services and products are, in one way or another, linked to oil price.
With low inflation, the interest rate will not go much higher.

[Image: saupload_oil_inflation_1.png]

Cheaper air fare on the horizon!!!

Yes, inflation should be low. But is it low in Singapore or high?
CNA had flashed news on why hawkers' food prices are high. Can you name any necessary daily living items not inflated in Singapore?
If you can soon it will be inflated too.

[yeokiwi]

Yes, inflation should be low. But is it low in Singapore or high?
CNA had flashed news on why hawkers' food prices are high. Can you name any necessary daily living items not inflated in Singapore?
If you can soon it will be inflated too.

Sure-win question. I concede defeat.
Last reply.

[Temperament]

Yes, inflation should be low. But is it low in Singapore or high?
CNA had flashed news on why hawkers' food prices are high. Can you name any necessary daily living items not inflated in Singapore?
If you can soon it will be inflated too.

Sure-win question. I concede defeat.
Last reply.

Seriously,
Daily necessities of living is getting more and more expensive. O. K. some of the prices of tvs, electronics good may be going down but that's because newer and newer models are coming out faster and faster. It use to take 4 or 5 years for newer models to be in the market, now maybe 1 to 2 years. Granted a tv may be a "daily necessities of living now" but you don't have to change if you don't have the spare cash. But we need to eat everyday. Especially at hawker's centres.

[koh_52]

We at now at stag-inflation state. High cost of living and low return or low yield in stock & rental...all $ sucken by the papies...Cash put in bank FD collecting dust.
Currently I also do nothing., since last year been cashing out my money out from an investment managed by a fund manager with net net return of 5% per annum, not so bad lar.
I am a market timer, hehe..got burnt in 1997 during asian crisis but hit jackpot in SAR 2003/4 and again time correctly in 2009...most gain come from ppty investment.

IMO, stay away from property this 2 years (2015-16) you may ask how about selling now...i dunno, for me ppty is a long term investment, enter at a low price and have holding power after GE think ppty will chiong (provided garment remove the TDSR, I think they will)..but you have to enter early...hehe, when all are fearful, you greedy lor...so cash is king when market tank.

[CityFarmer]

I have been doing nothing of late as well except to try to add CM Pacific during the recent pull-back. Unfortunately, I was trying to buy at below the book value (0.88) which came and went briefly.

I am not fully vested now, more like 70/30 between cash and equities. Going forward, I am cautiously optimistic. Short of a black swan event, it seems that most major macronomic issues have been discussed to death (e.g china property, de-leveraging, end of QE) and priced in.

Might be a bit OT here. The book value of CMHP is S$0.88?

Base on the latest 1H report, the NAV per share was HK$6.26 (S$1.04), or fully diluted was HK$6.02 (S$1.00).

(vested in CMHP, thus to reconfirm)

[Greenrookie]

Yes, inflation should be low. But is it low in Singapore or high?
CNA had flashed news on why hawkers' food prices are high. Can you name any necessary daily living items not inflated in Singapore?
If you can soon it will be inflated too.

Sure-win question. I concede defeat.
Last reply.

Seriously,
Daily necessities of living is getting more and more expensive. O. K. some of the prices of tvs, electronics good may be going down but that's because newer and newer models are coming out faster and faster. It use to take 4 or 5 years for newer models to be in the market, now maybe 1 to 2 years. Granted a tv may be a "daily necessities of living now" but you don't have to change if you don't have the spare cash. But we need to eat everyday. Especially at hawker's centres.

HI uncle Temperament,

I have to disagree gently. The scourge of inflation is everywhere, having deflation is not actually a good idea.

Inflation is Singapore is reasonable, of course never ideal. The only crazy inflation are those of cars and properties.

But look at it this way, govt do try to regulate the properties prices through curbs, GLS to regulate supply. PPI from 1999 (post AFC) the lowest point till now is about slighly more than 100% increase, and we all KBKP like we are conned of our money, we forget we can don't buy, walk away, In china, it is a circus with few folds jumps in a matter of years in the early 2000s, I am talking about 2nd tier and 3rd tier cities too.

Again, it is a blessing to have a choice of hawker food. I know Malaysia is cheaper and SEA countries have roadside peddlers that sell damn cheap food here, but I think it is only fair to compare apple with apple, say compare Singapore with the capital cities of the world, and perhaps Australia. Even Shanghai is super expensive now compared to a decade ago. I am not talking about the upmarket malls in Shanghai.

How many countries actually let their citizens study for free if they do not meet certain salary thresholds? Pardon me, if many countries do that, then I am ignorant. FAS criteria is not actually damning strict, and we have NGOs picking up the cracks.

Of course, I do understand, Singapore is not actually a very nurturing place for ideas like democracy, complete freedom of speech, etc...

But when we talk about inflation and basic necessities prices, I think they are not doing too badly

Sorry for OT

No offense, can agree to disagree. LOL