US Elections

[greengiraffe]

Obama hits mid-term campaign trail
AP OCTOBER 15, 2014 9:45PM

Less than three weeks before key mid-term elections, US President Barack Obama has finally hit the campaign trail, an event signalling a delicate balancing act for his Democratic party.

Until now, Obama - whose popularity has been on the wane for some time, leading vulnerable Democrats to keep their distance - has worked on the campaign sidelines to raise funds for the party.

But on Wednesday, he will stump in Bridgeport for incumbent governor Dannel Malloy of Connecticut, a northeastern state that Obama won easily in both 2008 and 2012, with 60 and 58 per cent of the vote, respectively.

Nearly six years after his arrival at the White House, Obama's approval rating is at its lowest point ever, hovering at about 40 per cent for several months.

For Malloy, who is facing a tough re-election battle against Republican challenger Tom Foley, asking Obama to appear at the rally is a calculated risk.

In 2010, Malloy won by a slim margin - less than 7,000 votes, out of more than one million ballots cast.

For Obama, who is trying to keep the Republicans from winning control of the Senate next month, the equation is somewhat complicated.

The 44th US president must try to defend his record without turning the legislative and local elections into a referendum on his administration.

Early this month, when Obama said that all of his policies would be "on the ballot" on November 4, numerous Democrats raised an eyebrow.

"It was a mistake," his former top aide David Axelrod admitted.

No one in Obama's Democratic party would go so far as to directly criticise the Nobel peace laureate.

But the unease is palpable in several states where even linking a candidate to the president is seen as a handicap, not an asset.

In Kentucky, the situation has veered toward the absurd: Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes, who is trying to unseat minority leader Mitch McConnell, won't even say if she voted for Obama.

In a televised debate Monday night, she hemmed and hawed on the question once again, defending her "constitutional right" to privacy in the voting booth.

McConnell, a veteran Washington insider who has been in office for 30 years, hammered the nail in, saying he had no problem admitting he voted for John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.

Grimes also called herself a "Clinton Democrat", lauding the achievements of the former president - apparently less risky than name-checking the current one.

When asked about the situation, White House spokesman Josh Earnest skirted the issue, saying: "I'll tell you that I voted for the president."

Since his re-election in 2012, Obama has attended nearly 100 Democratic Party fundraisers, but has remained mum on his future campaign activities in the run-up to November 4.

Earnest, cautious on the issue, says Obama will take part in other campaign rallies when he can be "helpful to candidates."

For now, Obama encourages Democrats whenever he can to make sure they don't fall victim to the party's Achilles heel: low turnout.

"There's a congenital problem that we have as Democrats, and that is, in non-presidential elections, in midterm elections - we don't vote," he told party faithful at the weekend in San Francisco.

"We've got to mobilise, we've got to organise. We've got to knock on doors. We've got to make phone calls."

In Connecticut, the Republican camp says it's not particularly concerned about the impact of Obama's visit.

[greengiraffe]

Republicans profit from voter discontent over Obama economy


Republicans swept to control of the US Senate by capitalizing on voter anger over President Barack Obama’s handling of the economy, setting up a clash of priorities that will shape his final two years in office and the race to succeed him. The economy was voters’ most pressing concern as they cast their ballots in the midterm election, with seven of 10 rating conditions poor, preliminary exit polls showed. More than five years after the recession ended, ordinary Americans still feel pinched. Wages and incomes haven’t recovered even as corporate profits have hit records, stocks have almost tripled and the nation’s output of goods and services grew more than $1 trillion from its pre-recession peak. Obama plans to hold a news conference Wednesday at 2:50 pm Washington time. The president will say that he’s ready to work with Republicans, according to a White House official who asked for anonymity to preview the remarks. Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell, in line to become Senate Majority Leader, will meet with reporters today in Louisville, said an aide who also asked for anonymity. Obama’s Democratic allies took the hit from voters, with Republicans gaining a majority in the Senate for the first time during his presidency and adding seats in the House, which they have controlled for four years. Voter ‘disillusionment’ Senator Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican, attributed his party’s gains to “disappointment and disillusionment with the administration.” He added, “I don’t think on the other end it’s a major endorsement of the Republican Party, either.” New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who led fundraising for the Republicans’ gubernatorial campaigns, said the outcome was a result of “the absolute vapid leadership of the president of the United States.” Oregon Representative Greg Walden, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said on Wednesday on CNN, “America wants us to go in a different direction but they do expect us to get our jobs done.” Fifty-eight percent of voters said they were dissatisfied or angry at the White House, according to preliminary exit polls; 59% said the same about Republican congressional leaders. US equity-index futures rose, the dollar strengthened and precious metals fell. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures advanced 0.4% at 10:03 am in London, signaling the gauge will approach a record. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to its highest level since April 2009. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 1%. Repeated scandals Democratic candidates couldn’t unburden themselves from the anchor of an unpopular president. Along with stagnant wages, they were denied traction by the failed rollout of the Obamacare website a year ago, scandals at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Internal Revenue Service and Secret Service, and public fears over the rise of Islamic State and the potential spread of the Ebola virus. The discontent simmered even as the economy showed signs of strength in the run-up to the election, posting its best six months of growth in more than a decade. Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.5% annualized rate in the three months that ended in September after a 4.6% gain in the second quarter, the best back-to-back showing since 2003. Most Americans haven’t shared in the gains. Adjusted for inflation, the July median household income of $54,045 was $2,600 lower than in December 2007, when the recession began, according to Sentier Research, an economic-consulting firm. Gloomy outlook Voters by 65-31% said the country is on the wrong track. That’s 12 points more negative than two years ago and was the second-gloomiest exit-poll reading since 1990, trailing only the 2008 election, the preliminary numbers showed. Half of voters expect life to be worse for the next generation. Republicans, led by McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, have to decide what mix of confrontation and cooperation best positions the party to hold the ground it took on Tuesday and make a run at the White House in 2016. “I don’t expect the president to wake up tomorrow and view the world any differently than he did this morning,” McConnell said at a victory celebration. “He knows I won’t either.” Still, McConnell said, he and the president have “an obligation to work together” where they can forge agreement. Obama offered an opening gesture with an invitation to congressional leaders from both parties to meet with him at the White House on Friday, a presidential aide said. The administration also was preparing for a possible Cabinet meeting before Obama departs on a trip to Asia, another official said. Executive order Yet before returns started coming in, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Obama won’t delay an executive order on immigration that the president has said he would announce before the end of the year, a pledge opposed by Republicans. In September, Obama retreated from his promise to swiftly revise US immigration policies, citing the “extreme politicization” of the issue. For Republicans, the big question is whether they will make a serious bid to overhaul immigration laws. The issue deeply divides the party, and many strategists say Democrats will be able to use it as a cudgel against their opponents in 2016 if it isn’t resolved by then. The party’s hardest task will be fostering solidarity between a Tea Party contingent focused on drawing contrasts with Obama and an establishment wing anxious to demonstrate that Republicans can be trusted with power. Senator Cruz Senator Ted Cruz, a Tea Party-backed Texas Republican, said this week that his colleagues must fight Obama at every turn. His priority, he told the Washington Post, is “looking at the abuse of power, the executive abuse, the regulatory abuse, the lawlessness that sadly has pervaded this administration.” Cruz also wants to dismantle Obama’s health-care law, a mission that would require improbable two-thirds majorities in both chambers to overcome presidential vetoes. He may find he hasn’t gained many new followers for his brand of Republicanism in yesterday’s Senate results. The party succeeded in recruiting candidates who generally were younger than the lawmakers they replaced, avoided campaign-killing flubs, and are expected to be more amenable to working with the party leaders in Washington. Some Republican leaders also say an all-out confrontation with Democrats is a one-way ticket back to the minority. There are a few issues, notably the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, where both sides say Obama and Republicans can come together. Upper hand Republicans have hinted at areas where they feel they have the upper hand. For years, they have tried to force approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline, repeal a medical-device tax and begin the process of cutting corporate taxes. Some Democrats, including Kentucky Representative John Yarmuth, say McConnell will opt to cooperate. “He will try to do something to preserve his legacy,” Yarmuth said. “I don’t think he wants a legacy that after he finally reached his lifelong ambition to be majority leader that he then spent the two years doing nothing but obstructing.” Frustrated with gridlock in Congress, Obama declared earlier this year that he would use his executive power to circumvent lawmakers on climate change and the minimum wage paid to federal contractors, as well as on immigration. That didn’t help his party yesterday and some, including Vice President Joe Biden, have signaled a willingness to compromise with Republicans. Same dynamics Representative Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat who is a member of Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s inner circle, said some in his party are forgetting how difficult it has been for the White House to work with House Republicans. “You’re still going to have a House of Representatives that is dominated by a Tea Party agenda,” Van Hollen said. “Even if there were some Republicans in the Senate that now want to work with the president, it’s hard to see how the dynamics in the House change.” Showing they can govern will be an issue for Republicans not only for holding the Senate against a tough electoral map in 2016 but also as the party tries to position itself against presumptive Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton. Clinton already has faced pressure from some Democrats to jump into the race soon to rally the party in the face of yesterday’s losses. Her advisers say she is likely to stick to her plans to announce early next year. “Republicans will make a huge mistake if they believe that tonight’s victories indicate a mandate for a return to trickle- down economics and political witch hunts,” said South Carolina Democratic Party chairman Jaime Harrison. “The party of ‘No’ must now lead, and if they don’t then the 2016 political pendulum will swing back so hard that they will have a bad case of whiplash.” BLOOMBERG

Read more at: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/XkxG5tB...ource=copy

[Greenrookie]

This post is not about economic implications but some nagging questions. Think some well read buddies can answer?

The news suggested that the democrats loss got a lot to do with Obama, and specifically the way he handled the economy.

Is this news accurate?

While there are plenty to lament about US economy, there is improvements in several fronts, although there are people who did not benefit from the improvement is employment, etc. His adminatration did pull the U.S. out of a Sh** hole with Japan and EU now doing a copycat.

So they want a unified congress check by executive powers White House?

Cannot understand ...

Assume Obama is running in Singapore, I think his approval rating would be different?

[BlueKelah]

In the US, new laws and policies have to go through lower house(House of Representatives) then upper house(Senate) approval. Apparently since republicans won upper house and already have majority of lower house, it means they can block any new legislation Mr. Obama wants to put forward in the next 2 years.

[weijian]

This post is not about economic implications but some nagging questions. Think some well read buddies can answer?

The news suggested that the democrats loss got a lot to do with Obama, and specifically the way he handled the economy.

Is this news accurate?

While there are plenty to lament about US economy, there is improvements in several fronts, although there are people who did not benefit from the improvement is employment, etc. His adminatration did pull the U.S. out of a Sh** hole with Japan and EU now doing a copycat.

So they want a unified congress check by executive powers White House?

Cannot understand ...

Assume Obama is running in Singapore, I think his approval rating would be different?

My personal opinion is that Obama had set the expectations too high with his CHANGE slogan during his election/re-election campaign, that offered hope and then nothing else. While i think it is not totally empty rhetoric because i believe he had the genuine intent to want to CHANGE (Look at how much thinner his body, and hair whiter he is now, compared to 2008), real CHANGEs apparently was much more elusive than what he thought.

Looking at what Obama has done to date, i can only remember his highlight been the assassination of OBL, and this may make an entire chapter when he starts writing his memo book. Otherwise, as a non-US citizen, i can only remember his unfulfilled promises/mishaps:

(a) We will react if the Syrian gov 'crosses the line' of using chemical weapons. When there was clear evidence that chemical weapons were used (wittedly or unwittedly), nothing was done. Syria's civil war has raged for 3years with casualties mounting to ~200,000 already, and continues to climb daily. It is my personal opinion that the inaction of the world and our nonchalant attitude towards it, is the greatest tragedy of recent times.

(b) There has been alot of high profile public killings using guns in US schools/cinemas/shopping malls/airports. In front of those who were mourning the loss of their loved ones, Obama stood out on the podium and vowed to change legislation. Of course, once again, he did not learn from history and NRA won (again).

© Most still remember what happened to Obamacare when it rolled out. Tea parties and its alliances have done a great job pointing out that the young/healthy will be using their premiums to subsidize the old/unhealthy....While i dont have the details, but isn't this what insurance all about? (those who eventually don't need it, will subsidize those who are found to need it). Sporeans generally and currently do not have qualms with Medishield. My personal opinion is, I will gladly pay my premiums and i will gladly not have to claim it(God willing)!

(d) The Ukraine debacle earlier in the year, resulted in contrasting support levels for both Obama and Putin. Humans are irrational as group - I mean, if support for Putin rises because he took the hard way, but Obama decides to use soft power (although he had no choices) via economic sanctions and gets the impression that he is weak - such warped incentives is not doing the world a favor.

(e) In recent times, there was a celebrated move as the Obama admin pushed on with a landmark immigration reform bill that would "relax" rules for illegal immigrants and had passed the Senate. The latest article seems to suggest that it has been pushed back. Mr Obama seems to be going with it alone now, and has ~1.5years left to complete his legacy!

[Greenrookie]

Thanks WEIjian,

Valid... But I thought Bush did worse.

Anyway, difficult to be appreciate for anyone in office.

As NRA, I thought the shame should go to the republican? Sigh... Politics ...

[greengiraffe]

After Obama: a US election form guide

HILLARY CLINTON JEB BUSH SCOTT WALKER RAND PAUL TED CRUZ MIKE HUCKABEE
2238 words
28 Mar 2015
The Australian Financial Review
AFNR
English
Copyright 2015. Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited.

Politics White House dynasties, budget-bashing libertarians and Tea Party extremists - likely candidates for America's 2016 presidential race span the ideological spectrum, write John Kehoe and Thomas Threlkeld.

The starter's gun for the 2016 US presidential election fired this week when Republican Senator Ted Cruz became the first major contender to officially declare he was running for the White House. In truth, an unofficial campaign among a wide field of Republicans has been running for months. Political conservatives are agitating to win the right to take on the assumed Democrat candidate, Hillary Clinton.

She is expected to announce her candidacy in April, although recent controversies surrounding the former secretary of state and first lady to President Bill Clinton may give pause for thought on a final declaration. Other Republicans, including Jeb Bush, are expected to declare their hands in the coming weeks.

The November 2016 poll is more than 18 months away, and there may be some surprises ahead, but the race is broadly taking shape. Before the head-to-head battle between the chosen Republican and Democrat candidates for 2016, the parties will early next year begin bitterly fought state-by-state primary races to select their nominees.

The left-leaning Democrats are almost certain to lock in Clinton, with contenders such as former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley and former senator Jim Webb considered long-shots.

So it is the crowded Republican field, housing up to 16 potential candidates, where most of the colour and entertainment will come in the weeks ahead.

AFR Weekend's form guide explores the top five conservatives who lead the pack ahead of more remote contenders like Florida Senator Marco Rubio, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and African-American neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

The race has started to take on Clinton for the most powerful position in the world.

Position: Former secretary of state,

ex-senator

Age: 67

Believes: It is time to have a female president in the White House.

On paper, Hillary Clinton may be the most qualified presidential contender to run for the White House. A former first lady, secretary of state in the first term of the Obama administration and former senator for New York, Clinton has lived and breathed politics for almost her entire adult life.

While Clinton is yet to officially declare, Democrats expect her to romp home in the party's primary race and be their candidate in 2016.

After running second to Barack Obama for the 2008 nomination, her forces are gearing up for a final attempt.

Yet if Clinton does win the Democrat nomination, she will need to overcome controversy and doubts about her capacity to govern.

Over the past month, she has been dragged through the mud by the media and Republicans for the revelation that she did not use an official State Department email address during her four years as chief diplomat. The episode raised concerns there were special rules for the secretive Clintons and a lack of accountability. Adding to her woes, it was revealed the Clinton Foundation, a charity, received donations from foreign governments while she was secretary of state.

The good news for Clinton is that this dirty laundry has had an early airing. But she will still need to rally the Democrats behind her.

Recent speeches indicate she is likely to campaign against the Republicans on addressing inequality, economic opportunity, healthcare and her international experience as secretary of state.

Position: Former Florida governor and businessman

Age: 62

Did you know: Jeb is not his real first name, but a combination of his entire name -

John Ellis Bush.

Jeb Bush, the son and brother of the 41st and 43rd presidents, is the household Republican name and early favourite to be nominated.

The Bush name carries advantages and disadvantages. He is instantly recognisable to voters and, just as importantly, to financial donors.

Bush has spent the past two months meeting business executives and raising money to fund a campaign, after declaring in January he was exploring running for the White House.

On the downside, there is the negative legacy left by his older brother, George W. Bush, who oversaw the global financial crisis and disastrous wars in the Middle East.

Like Clinton, Jeb Bush faces the inevitable question of whether a democratic and free country like the United States should be ruled by dynasties. If either becomes president and serves the maximum two terms, the US will have had a Bush or Clinton occupying the White House for 28 of 36 years.

Bush is modelling himself as the "adult" candidate in the Republican race, to distinguish himself from younger and more brazen figures like Ted Cruz.

He will have strong support from the establishment big-business wing of the party, which is comfortable with his economic record as governor of Florida from 1999 to 2007. But perhaps Bush's biggest hurdle is the anti-establishment Tea Party forces agitating against his family's name.

Bush, despite being fiscally and socially conservative while governor, is now viewed as a moderate.

He is pro-immigration and supports the federal government's imposition on the states regarding education benchmarks for school students in English and maths. Conservatives typically value state power and dislike Washington intervention.

The grassroots conservative movement deeply opposes Bush's support for up to 11 million illegal immigrants to be granted citizenship. Bush, married to Mexican migrant Columba Garnica de Gallo, has dug in on immigration. The principled position makes him vulnerable in the Republican primary elections.

But should he succeed, his pro-immigration stance will play better in a presidential election because Republicans need to win back Hispanic voters after historically low support for Mitt Romney in 2012.

Position: Wisconsin Governor

Age: 47

Believes: While in Britain to promote Wisconsin trade, Walker was asked if he believes in evolution. He refused to answer, saying: "I love the evolution of trade in Wisconsin."

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has shot to prominence among conservative voters in recent opinion polls, drawing about level with the more recognised early favourite Jeb Bush.

He is winning conservative support for his hardline stance against trade unions in the midwestern state. He has limited the rights of public sector unions to collectively bargain, made it easier to hire and fire teachers and signed a "right to work" law to prevent private sector unions from automatically deducting union fees from workers.

Combined with spending cuts and tax reductions, his economic rationalist model is popular with the conservative base and pro-business groups whose support will be required to help fund a campaign.

Walker knows how to campaign, winning three gubernatorial elections in four years in a traditionally Democratic midwestern state. If nominated, he could win blue and purple (swing) states.

The son of a preacher, he is socially conservative. Perhaps opportunistically, he has hardened his views against abortion to win support from the Christian right. Walker has also moved to the right on other issues, opening himself up to "flip-flop" accusations from critics.

On immigration, he no longer supports a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, backing away from a position in 2013. He was originally in favour of the federal government's Common Core education standards, but now openly berates them.

And despite ostensibly being a small-government economic rationalist, he told farmers at an Iowa agricultural summit that he supports the renewable fuel standards. Iowa is the first US state to hold primary election races and Walker is leading Republicans. The fuel policy props up demand for locally produced ethanol. Walker previously sponsored legislation in 1999 trying to excuse Wisconsin from the rule.

The other big question mark over the state governor is his lack of foreign policy experience, raising questions about his commander-in-chief credentials.

Position: Senator for Kentucky

Age: 52

Believes: The government is

harassing Americans.

Rand Paul, a qualified eye doctor, is best known as the son of Ron Paul, a long-time Republican congressman from Texas who unsuccessfully sought the Republican presidential nomination several times.

The younger Paul has earned a reputation as a small-government libertarian, constantly warning of the dangers of government interference in people's lives. He has won support from a younger generation of libertarians.

First elected to the US Senate as part of the Tea Party wave of 2010, Paul's first proposal in office was to cut the budget by $US500 billion in one year. He suggested abolishing the departments responsible for energy and housing, ending all foreign aid and cutting education spending by 83 per cent and homeland security by 43 per cent. He has written a book, Government Bullies: How Everyday Americans Are Being Harassed, Abused, and Imprisoned by the Feds.

Paul has repeatedly voted down proposals to keep the government running, objecting that they don't include enough spending cuts. Like Ted Cruz, he has also voted against increasing the debt limit, risking the possibility of a government default.

The most striking difference between Paul and his Republican peers is on national security. Unlike most conservative foreign policy hawks, Paul is a frequent opponent of the US engaging in conflicts overseas.

Paul objected to the intervention in Libya to topple dictator Muammar Gaddafi and voted against key provisions of the Patriot Act, which gives the government special spying powers to counteract terrorism. He is perhaps the Senate's most prominent critic of the National Security Agency's wiretapping of American citizens, arguing it is an invasion of privacy.

Paul is considered to be one of the frontline contenders for the Republican presidential nomination, running a close third behind Bush and Walker in a CNN poll earlier this month. In February, Paul won the presidential straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Committee meeting near Washington, D.C., beating rivals Walker and Cruz.

Paul reportedly intends to make his candidacy formal in Louisville, the biggest city in Kentucky, on April 7.

Position: Senator for Texas

Age: 44

Believes: "I believe God isn't done

with America yet."

Ted Cruz, a maverick first-term senator, is perhaps the most colourful and divisive Republican in the field of likely candidates. He is almost certainly the most economically and socially conservative, positioning himself as the free-market, Christian evangelical runner.

When he declared his presidential candidacy on Monday, Cruz called on "courageous conservatives" to stand up to reignite the promise of America.

He is a Harvard-educated lawyer and former adviser to President George W. Bush, and led the Republican Party's 17-day government shutdown in October 2013. The associated stand-off over raising the government's borrowing limit took the country within hours of a sovereign debt default.

He has repeatedly campaigned for President Obama's healthcare insurance law to be repealed, called for the Internal Revenue Service to be abolished, spoken of his climate change scepticism and led a crusade against government intervention. On foreign policy, he is notoriously hawkish and wants America to have a greater military engagement overseas.

Cruz is considered an outside chance to be nominated, because his far-right views are unlikely be embraced by middle-of-the-road voters or mainstream Republicans.

To beat the odds, he will need to mobilise millions of conservatives who didn't vote at the 2012 election. On Monday, the gifted speaker and former debating champion made a pitch for the Christian vote.

"God's blessing has been on America from the very beginning of this nation, and I believe God isn't done with America yet," Cruz told thousands of cheering students at Liberty University.

Cruz was born in Canada, to an American mother and Cuban immigrant father.

Liberty has been his catch-cry. "It is a time for truth, it is a time for liberty, it is a time to reclaim the constitution of the United States," the former constitutional lawyer said.

Position: Media commentator, former Arkansas governor

Age: 59

Believes: The US is a "Christian nation".

Mike Huckabee ran for the Republican nomination in 2008, finishing second in the delegate count behind winner John McCain, despite being vastly outspent.

Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas from 1996 to 2007, has moved into the media, hosting a popular television show on right-wing cable channel Fox News and a successful national radio program. He is also the author of several best-selling books. He has since ended his TV and radio programs in anticipation of running for the Republican nomination.

Huckabee is not fully trusted by the party's establishment, which considers him unreliable on tax cuts for the wealthy and support for free trade. Huckabee has called for "fair trade" and has suggested the US should impose economic sanctions on China.

But he is beloved on the party's right wing for his outspoken conservative views on social issues. An opponent of legal abortion even in the case of rape and incest, Huckabee, a Baptist minister, is a vocal critic of equal rights for homosexuals. After the Sandy Hook massacre that killed 26 students and teachers, Huckabee blamed the tragedy on the US for having "removed God from our schools".

Huckabee is a top contender for the GOP nomination, coming in fourth behind Bush, Walker and Paul in a recent CNN poll. In his limited spare time, he plays bass guitar in a blues band.


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