CityFarmer Portfolio

[CityFarmer]

Hi Cityfarmer,

Thanks for the information. I will trawl through the Sheng Siong thread (around 12 pages from the point you linked me), and also read through their financials. There's a fair bit of discussion on the Company which is good, although I generally feel there is excessive focus on the "Target Price" from analysts. Analysis of a Company should be done by focusing more on the facts which analysts provide, rather than the target prices they purportedly state. Note that most of their assumptions are skewed towards the upside, rather than having a discussion on protecting against the downside, which is what investing should really be about.

I refer further to a brief discussion with AlphaQuant on SS.
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1240-...l#pid76607

I concur on your view on analyst reports. There are two ways of "using" the reports, IMO
- To access further info/facts from analyst seminars, factory visits etc, by the analysts.
- To access the market sentiment on a stock. It will help for the execution. If a value stock found, and market sentiment is mostly "SELL" and low TP, then I will turn greedier in the buying.

Taking advice from analyst report, is the same as asking a barber if you need a haircut

I will also take a glance at YZJ soon, and provide my comments from there.

Looking forward for a fruitful discussion there.

[CityFarmer]

End-year 2014 result
It is measured by NAV methodology. The () is the STI performance ex-dividend, the benchmark.

3 month -2.29% (2.7%)
6 month 0.22% (3.36%)
1 year 17.70% (6.24%)
Since Inception (1 Oct 2012) 52.7% (10.05%)

Few parameters of the NAV, since inception

Monthly average (volatility) 1.67%, vs STI of 0.40%
Standard Deviation (volatility) 2.7%, vs STI of 2.7%

To put them in perspective, Yeoman Cap is having similar numbers, with monthly average of ~1.6%, and standard deviation of ~2.2%. After considered the differences in diversification level, I should be doing OK.

Preliminary Review
Top 5 holdings in descending order of vested capital, at the end of 2014, are
- YZJ
- ShengSong
- CM Pacific
- Penguin
- M1

In 2014, I have rotated 5 stocks out, and replaced with 6 new stocks. All rotated out stocks were profitable, except one, which was only broke-even. The outstanding one is Memstar Tech, which had an annualized gain of 360%, by XIRR.

The best in performance in existing portfolio is Penguin. The best should be yet to come for the stock, and more to expect in 2015.

The worst in performance in existing portfolio is Challenger Tech. It is not in the top-5 list. The story still remains intact, thus it will continue to stay in my portfolio, unless a better one arrives.

The "wrong" of the year, was with ITG. I learned a valuable lesson. I trusted the management, while their past records showed otherwise. VB buddies had reminded me, but I was too arrogant to ignore, and thinking that the high free-float would mitigate the risk. I had been proven wrong, very wrong indeed.

The "rights" of the year, were with Penguin, SGX and Sheng Siong. I managed to get a fair prices. The stocks were both defensive and yet with significant growth ahead.

The 2014 performance is the worst in the last 3 years, since the change to Peter Lynch style. I wish a better one in 2015.

[CityFarmer]

Mid-year 2015 result

Preliminary result, after data entries. Using NAV methodology, the performance is the following. STI benchmark in (), excludes div

3 month 3.6% (-3.8%)
6 month 9.5% (-1.4%)
1 year 13.1% (1.9%)
Since Inception (1 Oct 2012) 67.3% (8.5%)
CAGR since inception 20.6% (3.0%)

Few parameters, since inception. It seems OK on my strategy.

Monthly average (volatility) 1.7%, vs STI of 0.3%
Standard Deviation (volatility) 2.8%, vs STI of 2.5%

Preliminary Review
Top 5 holdings in descending order of market value, at end-Jun 2016, are shown below. The year-to-date performance in (), in absolute % return
- YZJ (+17%)
- ShengSong (+20%)
- Penguin (-10%)
- CM Pacific (+13%)
- M1 (-10%)

In 6 months of 2015, I have rotated out 2 stocks, and reduced holding on 1 stock. I also have added two new stocks, and increased holding on 1 stock. In short, capital rotation is less than 30% now, which is low with my strategy.

The 6 month performance is satisfactory, based on the market volatility. Slow and steady is the aim, and so far so good. I might be able to achieve first double by end of 2015, from inception. Wish me luck.

Thank

Regards
CityFarmer

[greengiraffe]

Hi CF,

U are doing well. As long as you know what u are buying and comfortable with the risks assume, its a good start.

FYI, my SRS portfolio currently comprises 4 stocks:

i) CMP - 47%
ii) FCL - 30%
iii) St****** - 18%
iv) M1 - 5%

Portfolio current yield - 5.6%

Fully Vested. This is the only one that I can track without disturbances as my last contributions was done in 2002.

Cheers
GG

Mid-year 2015 result

Preliminary result, after data entries. Using NAV methodology, the performance is the following. STI benchmark in (), excludes div

3 month 3.6% (-3.8%)
6 month 9.5% (-1.4%)
1 year 13.1% (1.9%)
Since Inception (1 Oct 2012) 67.3% (8.5%)
CAGR since inception 20.6% (3.0%)

Few parameters, since inception. It seems OK on my strategy.

Monthly average (volatility) 1.7%, vs STI of 0.3%
Standard Deviation (volatility) 2.8%, vs STI of 2.5%

Preliminary Review
Top 5 holdings in descending order of market value, at end-Jun 2016, are shown below. The year-to-date performance in (), in absolute % return
- YZJ (+17%)
- ShengSong (+20%)
- Penguin (-10%)
- CM Pacific (+13%)
- M1 (-10%)

In 6 months of 2015, I have rotated out 2 stocks, and reduced holding on 1 stock. I also have added two new stocks, and increased holding on 1 stock. In short, capital rotation is less than 30% now, which is low with my strategy.

The 6 month performance is satisfactory, based on the market volatility. Slow and steady is the aim, and so far so good. I might be able to achieve first double by end of 2015, from inception. Wish me luck.

Thank

Regards
CityFarmer

[CityFarmer]

Hi GG,

Thanks

I am glad you are also a fellow shareholder of M1.

Hi CF,

U are doing well. As long as you know what u are buying and comfortable with the risks assume, its a good start.

FYI, my SRS portfolio currently comprises 4 stocks:

i) CMP - 47%
ii) FCL - 30%
iii) St****** - 18%
iv) M1 - 5%

Portfolio current yield - 5.6%

Fully Vested. This is the only one that I can track without disturbances as my last contributions was done in 2002.

Cheers
GG

[greengiraffe]

M1 is a recent addition as a result of recycling dividends for my fully vested portfolio.

At current prices, with yield approaching 5.9%, the risk / reward for a steady cash flow generator is good for a potential trade as yield narrows once again.

Cheers
GG

Hi GG,

Thanks

I am glad you are also a fellow shareholder of M1.

Hi CF,

U are doing well. As long as you know what u are buying and comfortable with the risks assume, its a good start.

FYI, my SRS portfolio currently comprises 4 stocks:

i) CMP - 47%
ii) FCL - 30%
iii) St****** - 18%
iv) M1 - 5%

Portfolio current yield - 5.6%

Fully Vested. This is the only one that I can track without disturbances as my last contributions was done in 2002.

Cheers
GG

[CityFarmer]

A brief report of 9-month in 2015

Preliminary result, after data entries. Using NAV methodology, the performance is the following. STI benchmark in (), excludes div

YTD -2.8% (-17.1%)
Since Inception (1 Oct 2012) 48.4% (-8.7%)
CAGR since inception 14.1% (-3.0%)

The portfolio NAV has dived relatively lesser than last mini crisis in 2011, which likely due to a safer (more diverse) portfolio. I wish by year-end, my yearly return will turn to black. As Mr. Buffett said, "never lose money" is the ultimate rule   

I am actively re-balancing my portfolio, to get prepare for a future "recovery". The portfolio's P/E is slightly more than 10 now (base on a simple average of all PEs). If excluded M1 and Sheng Siong, the PE is about 8. I hope to get it down to below 7, if possible.

Best wish to myself, as well as all VB buddies here for the "good years" ahead.

All comments are welcomed. Thanks

[weijian]

Hi CF,
Excellent results once again showing what 'value oriented' is all about - protecting the capital that is eventually used for compounding purposes.

[CityFarmer]

Hi CF,
Excellent results once again showing what 'value oriented' is all about - protecting the capital that is eventually used for compounding purposes.

Thank you. The concept of value investing, is simple to know, but hard to execute. I am still learning to get better, and I reckon it will be a life-long journey for me. An interesting and rewarding journey indeed.

Wish you all the best to your value investing journey

[Dividend Knight]

Hi Cityfarmer,

Like you, I am vested in M1. In fact, it is my largest holding.

The fourth Telco will face a heavy capex for the roll-out. So, it is challenge, setting up and sustaining telco services at the required standards stipulated by the IDA. They need to raise alot more funds than they already did.

I am still cautiously optimistic about the prospects of the local Telco market as the usage of data will gradually increase with the population number. So yes, more good years ahead.