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Oil Prices
01-10-2014, 07:56 AM,
Post: #21
RE: Oil Prices

US may lift crude oil export ban in 2015

Mr Sheffield: His firm has been given permission to ship a type of ultra-light oil known as condensate to foreign buyers
[SINGAPORE] There is a 20 per cent chance that the US would lift its export ban on crude oil next year, predicted the head of one of the most active shale operators in the US.
Otherwise, the ban is likely to be lifted in 2017, said Scott Sheffield, chairman and CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, adding that the sanctions on Iran, plus the current geopolitical conflict between Ukraine and Russia, means that the US is hard-pressed to provide oil to countries that would be affected.
"The EU and IMF have all asked for help to lift the ban," said Mr Sheffield in a lecture at Singapore Management University on Monday. "I give the Obama administration a 20 per cent chance of lifting in 2015, and most people predict that US will lift it totally in 2017."
No decision is likely to be made this year or in 2016, given that there would be political elections, he added. "Our goal is to educate both parties."

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01-10-2014, 09:35 AM,
Post: #22
RE: Oil Prices
With US basically on par with Saudi Arabia and with that news, bad omen for oil (and Keppel too), good for consumers.

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01-10-2014, 10:09 AM,
Post: #23
RE: Oil Prices
The entire O&G chain is done for already for some time coming...

Caveat Emptor

(01-10-2014, 09:35 AM)SpeedingBullet Wrote: With US basically on par with Saudi Arabia and with that news, bad omen for oil (and Keppel too), good for consumers.

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02-10-2014, 07:20 AM,
Post: #24
RE: Oil Prices
Oil price climbs from 2-year low to above US$95
China PMI a boost following fears of rising oil supply

[LONDON] Oil rose from the lowest level in more than two years to over US$95 a barrel on Wednesday, as a slightly better-than-expected Chinese factory survey countered worries of an economic slowdown in the world's No 2 oil consumer and of ample supplies.
Growth in China's manufacturing sector held up in September but remained subdued. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 51.1, just ahead of forecasts for a 51.0 reading and offering some relief to investors worried about slowing growth.
Concern over increasing Opec oil supply, weak European and Chinese growth, and a stronger dollar pushed global benchmark Brent to its lowest since June 2012 on Tuesday, and the same factors are likely to keep a lid on any price recovery.
Brent crude was up 48 US cents at US$95.15 a barrel by 1313 GMT. On Tuesday, it touched a session low of US$94.24, its weakest since June 2012. US crude gained 72 US cents to US$91.88.

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02-10-2014, 11:54 PM,
Post: #25
RE: Oil Prices
Oil prices fall sharply

Oil prices dropped more than 2.5 per cent in European trade on Thursday morning as oil producers showed no signs of cutting back production despite the global glut.

Brent crude oil -- the benchmark for oil produced in the North Sea -- had dropped sharply midmorning, before leveling off.

November Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange was down $US2.19 at $US91.97 a barrel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November were down $US2.08 cents at $US88.67 a barrel.

"For the first time since April 2013, the WTI oil price has dropped below the psychologically important $US90 per barrel mark," said analysts at Commerzbank.

The action Thursday jolted a market that had been locked in a slow summer downward grind. The decent supply outlook meant prices slipped relentlessly despite the crises in Iraq and Ukraine, which could have posed a threat to supplies.

The losses deepened sharply Thursday, in part because tensions emerged within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which represents many of the world's largest crude-oil producers, and between OPEC and the US, which has seen a dramatic increase in oil and gas production thanks largely to the controversial shale-drilling boom.

Saudi Arabia is the world's largest producer of oil, and usually takes the lead within OPEC to adjust production and ensure stable oil prices. A number of analysts had expected Saudi Arabia to cut back on production and push prices higher. On Wednesday, however, it lowered its official selling prices, indicating that it expects crude to continue trading at low levels.

Meanwhile, Saudi'Arabia's decision could deepen the fissures within OPEC, as the price cut puts other OPEC producers such as West Africa, Iran and Iraq under pressure. OPEC officials are set to meet on November 27 in Vienna to discuss the current state of the oil market.

US oil production has skyrocketed over the last five years due to the discovery of reserves locked in shale formations, and better techniques for extracting those techniques. By some estimates it has overtaken Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil and gas producer, and is projected to add another million barrels of oil a day to global supply next year.

But a price below $US90 a barrel could derail some of those plans, according to Bjarne Schieldrop of SEB Commodity Research.

"We haven't tested those waters yet," he said, referring to a price below $US90 a barrel. "That is one of the things that the market need to explore."

The picture may get even more complicated after November 24, when the international community is set to review oversight of Iran's nuclear program. If Iran is deemed to be complying with international demands that it stop its nuclear program, Iran may be allowed to deliver an additional one million barrels of oil a day to the global market starting in 2015.

The falls Thursday came despite a surprise decline in US crude stockpiles, according to data from the US Department of Energy published on Wednesday. Stockpiles are often higher at this time of year because refiners go into maintenance and consume less crude. Yet analysts largely dismissed the data as a one-off, and said the trend for greater production from the US was the predominant factor.

Whilst supplies are plentiful, global demand for oil and gas remains weak. Investors fret that China is starting to come off the breakneck pace of economic growth seen in recent years, which may mean it won't consume as much as had been expected. Europe, meanwhile, is struggling to shake off the prolonged downturn.

"If this developing pessimism regarding the global economy continues into the fourth quarter, oil demand could be negatively affected," analysts at oil brokerage PVM wrote in a research note.

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03-10-2014, 06:50 AM,
Post: #26
RE: Oil Prices

Saudi signals price skirmish as oil heads to bear market
Patti Domm | @pattidomm
5 Hours Ago

Oil could continue its deep slide, possibly dipping into bear market territory, under new pressure from Saudi Arabia's decision to defend market share, as opposed to cutting production to battle falling prices.

A well-supplied oil market, helped by increased North American production and softer global demand as Europe's economy falters and Chinese demand growth slows, has created a supply imbalance that has driven prices sharply lower. The Saudi move is counter to expectations that it would further cut its 9.6 million barrel-a-day production to bring back oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate oil futures for November hit a 17-month low early Thursday, falling below the $90 mark for the first time since April 2013. That was a 16 percent decline from its June high. Brent, the international benchmark, fell to a 27-month low of $91.55 per barrel, before recovering at about $93 per barrel for November futures. Brent, at the low, was about 19 percent off its high. A weaker dollar helped lift oil off its lows.

Oil analysts expect oil to fall another couple percent, which could take both WTI and Brent into bear market territory—a 20 percent decline from recent highs.

Read MoreOil claws back from the brink as fears percolate
Oil workers at an oil facility near Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Hasan Jamali | AP
Oil workers at an oil facility near Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
"It's both supply and demand. it's basically the perfect storm that brought oil prices down," said Fadel Gheit, Oppenheimer senior energy analyst. "You have plenty of supply which you never thought possible, and all of a sudden, demand is shrinking, China's slowing down, Europe never recovered."

He said the fact that the Saudis are willing to play hardball with prices makes it difficult for other oil-based economies like Russia.
Saudi Aramco, the state-run oil company, surprised markets Wednesday when it announced it would cut official prices for Asian customers in November. The cuts come as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was expected to be on course to cut back on production instead, to protect prices.

Read MoreCheap oil 'a mirage' and heading to $140: Dicker

Analysts say that Saudi Arabia, by instead cutting prices to defend market share, is reinforcing its role as the world's swing producer, capable of controlling the flow—and prices—better than any other single producer.

"It will not be a full-fledged price war," Gheit said. "There are always skirmishes but not a full-fledged war because OPEC really is held together by Scotch Tape," he said, adding that the organization is "incompetent" and members are "jealous" of each other. "They hate each other. At the end of the day, I think they are paying the price. They never really pay attention to any alternative for their own (oil) revenues."

He said Saudi Arabia could afford to produce at lower levels despite assumptions that it needs $100 a barrel to meet its required budget revenues.

But Commerzbank analysts said " OPEC appears to be gearing up for a price war."

In a note, they said Saudi prices are getting close to levels of the 2008-09 economic crisis. "Such measures give rise to doubts about OPEC's longstanding strategy of striving above all for price stability," they wrote. "We therefore do not expect prices to stabilize until this impression disappears and OPEC returns to coordinated production cuts."

Analyst John Kilduff of Again Capital said recent surveys show OPEC production at about 31 million barrels a day, and while the organization signaled it may cut production at its November meeting, an OPEC response would be needed to change the course for prices.
"I think we're going to see the low $80s fairly quickly from here if there's no supply response from OPEC," Kilduff said. "Peak winter demand season is upon us, and it could bail them out. Brent will likely head to the low $80s. If the winter cooperates even slightly I would look for the price action to bottom around January."
"The Saudis did cut production by about 400,000, which is token," he said.

Gene McGillian, analyst with Tradition Energy, said the next likely target for WTI is $85 a barrel, and then it's uncertain how much lower it will go. For Brent, it would be $90 a barrel. "Are these fears of slowing conditions and ample supplies going to continue to really depress the price, where we're going to have action taken on the supply side to get some supply price stability?" McGillian asked.

The U.S. reported that domestic oil production was at 8.8 million barrels a day last week, a near three-decade high. The growth in U.S. output has resulted in a displacement of African crude that had once gone to U.S. refineries and now goes to Asia.

McGillian said more speculative shorts have been moving into Brent in recent weeks. "That's one reason the spreads have come under pressure and Brent is so weak. At some point, the slide is overdone, and up until yesterday, there was a question of whether it's done. It's not done. It's still searching for a new level," he said.

Saudi Arabia cut its flagship Arab light selling price by $1 a barrel, versus October's discount of $1.05 a barrel to the Oman/Dubai average price. Traders expected a cut of about 70 cents, according to Reuters. The Saudis also cut prices to the U.S. and Europe by 40 cents a barrel.

McGillian said Saudi now lowered its selling price below the Oman and Qatar prices.

"They are trying to make their price attractive," he said. "It doesn't suggest they're concerned about the price yet. ... Now, we wait and see how Oman and Qatar will react. If they say they're going to cut their prices, we could have a price war on our hands."

Gheit said he doesn't expect to see production cuts. He sees WTI prices heading lower into the $80s per barrel, and longer term to the $70s.

Kilduff points out that North American crude continues to influence the global market. For instance, more Alaskan crude is set to go to Asian markets, one of the few exports allowed under U.S. law.

Read MoreAlaskan crude heads to Korea

"It's a challenge to Saudi Arabia so they're going to act now. It makes sense they would battle for market share at least temporarily, and to the extent they see the shale boom as a threat," he said. The Saudi tactic may be to "flood the market. Sink some of these guys, and we're back in the driver's seat. It's not a crazy theory."

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08-10-2014, 07:18 AM,
Post: #27
RE: Oil Prices
US oil price hits 17-month low
AFP OCTOBER 08, 2014 10:00AM

Oil prices have sunk amid concerns about slowing economic growth, with WTI dropping to a 17-month low on expectations of a rise in US crude oil supplies.

The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate for November delivery, dived $US1.49, or 1.6 per cent, to close at $US88.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent North Sea crude for delivery November settled at $US92.11 a barrel in London, down US68c from Monday's close.

"The story today is the same as the story behind the rest of the drop over the last few weeks: We have an oversupply at the same time we have slower growth," James Williams, analyst at WTRG Economics, said.

Traders weighed further disappointing data out of the eurozone, where the stuttering economy is suggesting weaker energy demand.

Germany, Europe's largest economy, saw a sharp 4 per cent drop in industrial output in August, the economy ministry said. The report came a day after statistics office Destatis said that German factory orders had slumped 5.7 per cent in August.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund lowered its global economic growth outlook, warning of stagnation in advanced economies.

It trimmed this year's growth to 3.3 per cent, down from its July estimate of 3.4 per cent, and projected 2015 growth of 3.8 per cent, down from 4.0 per cent.

As for the 18-nation eurozone, the IMF cut its growth forecast to a measly 0.8 per cent in 2014 and 1.3 per cent in 2015.

The United States, the world's biggest crude oil consumer, and Britain were singled out as leading the way with "decent" growth, but even so the IMF hedged its enthusiasm.

"Even for those two countries, potential growth is now lower than in the early 2000s," it said.

The trade action also reflected market expectations for a build in US crude stocks in Wednesday's Department of Energy report.

On average, analysts estimated US crude inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels in the week ending October 3, according to a poll by Dow Jones Newswires.

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08-10-2014, 09:28 PM,
Post: #28
RE: Oil Prices
OPEC oil price falls below $US90, Brent loses 1%

The average price of OPEC's basket of crudes has fallen below $US90 a barrel for the first time in more than two years amid abundant supplies.

The news underscores the pain faced by members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, most of whom need higher prices to balance their budgets.

The organisation said Wednesday that the average price of its members' crudes basket stood at $US89.37 a barrel, compared with $90.40 the previous day. That level hadn't been touched since June 2012.

OPEC's basket price has now fallen lower than Brent -- the international benchmark -- which still trades above $US90 a barrel.

Meanwhile, crude oil on both sides of the Atlantic fell more than 1 per cent in trading on Wednesday, as the outlook for demand continued to appear bleak.

The US Energy Information Administration cut its oil demand outlook on Tuesday by 90,000 barrels a day and next year by 190,000 barrels a day, indicating a lack of market for the world's surplus oil, said David Hufton of brokerage PVM.

The cuts added to an already lackluster trend. "These are very worrying days for oil producers," he wrote in a note to clients.

"With oversupply leading to persistent downward pressure on near term prices we expect subdued trading for the remainder of the week," wrote Kash Kamal, research analyst at Sucden Financial.

November Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange was down 98 cents at $US91.10 a barrel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November were down 109 cents at $US87.76 a barrel.

ICE gas oil for October was down $US4.75, at $US722.25 a metric ton. Gasoline was down 424 points at $US2.3259 a gallon.

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09-10-2014, 03:23 PM,
Post: #29
RE: Oil Prices
Oil Bulls Keep Faith Saudi Supply Cuts Will Revive Price

By Grant Smith Oct 9, 2014

Ignore the talk of an OPEC price war, say crude market bulls. Oil’s next move was spelled out in Saudi Arabia’s own words.

Price cuts announced by the Saudis, including the biggest discounts for Asia since 2008, sparked speculation that the world’s biggest crude exporter would let oil tumble rather than cede market share to rivals in OPEC. This is misguided, said UBS AG and BNP Paribas SA. Brent is below the $95-to-$110 range endorsed by Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi, ensuring the country will curb output, they said..................


Preferred Range

A range of $95 to $110 a barrel is suitable for consumers and producers, Saudi Arabia’s Al-Naimi said at OPEC’s last meeting on June 11 in Vienna. The average price of benchmark OPEC crudes dropped below $90 for the first time in more two years, the group said yesterday. OPEC will discuss prices and production at a meeting on Nov. 27 in Vienna, Al-Naimi said on Sept. 11.

History shows that Saudi OSP cuts precede decreases in production, not increases, Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS in Zurich, said by e-mail on Oct. 6. Prices will rebound by the end of year, Staunovo said.

BNP Paribas forecasts that Brent will average $108 a barrel during the fourth quarter. Barclays Plc estimates an average of $106 during the same period, according to an e-mailed report on Oct. 3.

“I don’t think there’s any rush on the Saudis’ side to bring the market lower” when disappointing demand could do that anyway, Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Corp., said by phone from New York on Oct. 7. “I don’t think a price war is going on. Saudi Arabia will cut if needed.”
Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.

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09-10-2014, 04:36 PM,
Post: #30
RE: Oil Prices
"A range of $95 to $110 a barrel is suitable for consumers and producers, Saudi Arabia’s Al-Naimi said at OPEC’s last meeting on June 11 in Vienna"

This ain't price-fixing? haha! Big Grin

By all means, let oil prices drop!!
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR! 

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