China Economic News

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2020.02.01【文茜世界周報】12月底傳不明肺炎醫護緊張 當局封鎖消息
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqIWeTSA...AU&index=7


2020.02.01【文茜世界周報】回首17年前 SARS恐怖陰影壟罩全球
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JowjdLFB...AU&index=6


2020.02.01【文茜世界周報】武漢肺炎 全新而充滿未知的「新型冠狀病毒」
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghJnl5Zq...AU&index=5


2020.02.01【文茜世界周報】武漢封城後 市區空蕩如末日景象
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCxHycxe...AU&index=2


2020.02.01【文茜世界周報】武漢肺炎蔓延 中南海全面接管防疫內幕
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms_LXjhN...AU&index=1
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(27-01-2020, 02:39 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Whats that local listco that makes the N95 masks in taiwan factory? Wait just saw on top movers its medtec

Thanks BlueKelah, for bringing this counter up.

Observing the price movement of medtec intl*, from the Behappyalways' first post in this thread on 20 Jan regarding the coronavirus, medtec's share price has run up from $0.05 to the peak of $0.205 on 29 Jan. What were these "investors" thinking ? that maybe medtec cld suddenly ramp up its operations or jack up the selling price of their pdts/svc, and that its revenue/profit cld increase 5x in the forseeable future ? Not forgetting that its valuation is 55 P/E, NAV $0.15. 

*medtec is also traded via Taiwan Depositary Receipt (TDR).

I think this kind of somewhat irrational mkt behaviour will always happen. But for me, perhaps because I am too "conditioned" to forever think abt a self-prescribed concoction of low P/E, growing/stable dividend yield, low P/B, net cash, history of profitablity/track record etc, I always tend to miss such "short term trading opportunities"(which are usually only profitable if one has a first mover advantage) for better or for worse.

In terms of value investing during this period, I think the recent correction has inadvertently brought out value in established HK/China related counters(much like the trade war "pessimism" episode playing out previously). Of course, the economic situation in China/HK cld get worse from this point due to the many challenges the two countries are currently facing, and the various stock indexes cld also trend further down(But who can predict the bottom?).

From the various online news articles, my personal take is the very sad and unfortunate situation in China seems in part due to the lack of access to health care services and facilities, and appear to affect the elderly & those with existing medical conditions more badly. Hopefully after this unfortunate incident, the chinese govt will improve its health care infrastructure and the sanitary conditions in the wet mkts. Although we shd never let our guard down and practice personal hygiene* as well as maintaining a healthy diet, I think the constant barrage of bad news from the various media may have the unintended effect of contributing to heightened negativity and fear subconsciously :

How Wuhan lost the fight to contain the coronavirus
Wuhan residents face long waits for medical help
Man who recovers from Wuhan virus describes his experience & treatment process

Do the wise words "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." of WB apply in this situation where sellers are out in force ? I can only hope I am making rational investing decisions during this period.

*Guangzhou scientists discover Wuhan virus on door handle at patient’s house
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Compared to previous trading sessions, the selling seems to have slowed. Barring an unexpected worsening of the situation, further large sell-offs may be unlikely.

In any case, this 'rainy season' (the second in the past 6 months) is indeed another opportunity to bring out the bath tub.

But at a time when the market is offering shares at marked down prices, it is important to always be sure that the company that is bought is in reasonably good shape, and will very likely do better.

Not all discounts are good buys. This is the same for purchases of all sorts of goods and service.
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“There have also been many patients who died of undifferentiated respiratory and undiagnosed pneumonia symptoms in Wuhan since December – before the virus testing kits were made available,” Tsang said.

“These cases should have been investigated and counted [in the tally] if confirmed. These are factors pointing to inaccurate reporting of the official figures,” he said

Coronavirus tally in epicentre Wuhan may be ‘just the tip of the iceberg’
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/...ip-iceberg
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(03-02-2020, 10:55 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: “There have also been many patients who died of undifferentiated respiratory and undiagnosed pneumonia symptoms in Wuhan since December – before the virus testing kits were made available,” Tsang said.

“These cases should have been investigated and counted [in the tally] if confirmed. These are factors pointing to inaccurate reporting of the official figures,” he said

Coronavirus tally in epicentre Wuhan may be ‘just the tip of the iceberg’
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/...ip-iceberg


Actually we do already know from the bias that is inherent in all type of diagnosis - ie. Not every death is tested and hence the no. of reported deaths will definitely be lower than the real figure. This applies to all kinds of prior outbreaks (eg. MERS, SARS etc)

That said, this Wuhan virus has been bought to the surface much earlier with the kit tests created much earlier as well. As a result, the number of reported infections could actually be much more as well, lets say, compared to MERS/SARS.

Nonetheless, I suspect actual base rates don't really deviate much from the current reported numbers. I think as investors, the easier que to take would be the severity of the responses from the Authorities, and taking comfort that extreme measures will mean better future outcomes for everyone's health.
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Interesting watch
【天津一百货大楼相继出现5例确诊病例!专家全程脱稿 揭开层层迷雾】日前,天津某百货大楼内部相继出现5例新冠肺炎确诊病例,从起初的3个病例来看,似乎找不到任何流行病学上的关联性。
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vrnxCMDmEz4
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The latest figures reported from China are 490 dead and 24,300 infected ( figures taken from bbc website )
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Coronavirus could easily tip China into a technical recession, economist warns

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/coronavi...warns.html
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/
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The latest figures reported from China are 560 dead and over 28,000 infected. ( by Guardian Newspaper. )

There is a shortage of face masks in London shops reported by my friend ( who has been trying to buy some to take back to Hong Kong next week. )
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Coronavirus: tales of economic woe spread on Chinese social media as workers, small businesses suffer
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econo...cial-media
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/
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