China Economic News

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Uniquely China from a 7 days SDF + 3 days Home SHN, it has now reduced to 5 days SDF + 3 days Home SHN. I wonder how many more iterations it will take before it becomes a full home SHN regime. Based on Singapore traveller stats, travel volume saw a significant rise when Singapore transited from default SDF to home SHN.

My personal guess is that it will take another 4 months for China to transit to that, subsequently opening up to Hong Kong.

2H 2023 will be when China reopens to the world with some sort of on-arrival testing
疫傷經濟! 大陸家樂福今年關閉54家門市|方念華|FOCUS全球新聞 20221124

中國多地感染激增 清零與鬆綁間考驗習近平 TVBS文茜的世界周報-亞洲版 20221126 X 富蘭克林‧國民的基金
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The situation in China isnt looking good with the protests in 5 provinces.

The COVID lockdowns also affects construction and there is an issue in China where ppl have to take upfront loans of 100% and now their unbuilt apartments are taking even longer to be built (lest not forget China is also on a leasehold system like us, unless they lengthen the lease of the apartments, ppl will feel it is unfair they have to suffer for it)

Due to a pride of a few men not to accept Western vaccine, a billion + ppl are suffering. This is how a minority few (in power) are controlling and making the majority suffer. I fear that the political ramifciation may be bad and escalation of violence by the communist may occur given the brutal regimes of the past

The world cup did not help as well as it showed the disparity of China against the world:
(Bloomberg) --China’s top official in charge of the fight against Covid-19 said the country’s efforts to combat the virus are entering a new phase with the omicron variant weakening and more Chinese getting vaccinated, a fresh sign that Beijing may be seeking to amend its strategy.
“As the omicron variant becomes less pathogenic, more people get vaccinated and our experience in Covid prevention accumulates, our fight against the pandemic is at a new stage and it comes with new tasks,” outgoing Vice Premier Sun Chunlan said at a meeting with the National Health Commission and health experts in Beijing on Wednesday.

She didn’t use the term “dynamic Covid Zero” -- used to describe China’s quest to quash outbreaks and eliminate Covid -- based on the statement issued after the meeting. At a briefing on Tuesday, officials from bodies including the National Health Commission didn’t use the term either, a departure from previous briefings, and instead encouraged the elderly to get vaccinated.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
Positive change. Hope encouraging trends continue. That said, a huge complex system under too much control of 1 man, might be fragile.
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
China to ramp up COVID vaccinations for its elderly 

Even more positive development for China*.

*not necessarily Big Chinese Tech like Alibaba and Tencent
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
The cure for zero covid, is zero covid. So unfortunately, the cure for covid, is covid itself.

China’s health system isn’t ready for the end of “zero Covid”

The omicron variant already sparked the kind of major wave in Hong Kong that experts fear in mainland China. Within just a few months, 10 million people there had been infected and 10,000 had died. The health care system strained under the weight.

But a huge number of infections appears inevitable and a small but significant share of them will turn serious. As Cowling put it to me, even a small fraction becomes a problem if the denominator gets big enough.

So the world’s most populous country faces an uncertain future. It has spent three years holding Covid-19 back, but the virus is on the precipice of breaking through. Their health care system may not be ready. The stakes are high.
During the 20th party congress in late Oct, Xi has openly said that zero Covid policy is here to stay. However, soon after the people of China started their rare protest in public, China has started to lift many restrictions, while not officially saying they are changing course. I guess the CCP knows that people tolerance are reaching its breaking point (and some beyond this point), so it cannot be business as usual as the consequence could be a lot worst. However, if the Covid cases started to spike and mortality rate goes up, will China goes back to strict restriction again?

In any case, it shows a lack of competent handing of the Covid situation to me and this should have an impact on Xi standing. On hindsight, he should allows his other minister (maybe his health minister) to make that bold statement during the 20th party congress, and not by himself. Now, he has no scapegoat.
Certainly there will be more volatility ahead with high absolute covid death numbers expected but with several policies going from extremes to path of moderation, better times probably lie ahead.

China hints at pro-business push, smaller fiscal boost in 2023

CHINA’S top leaders said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, further support for the property market while likely scaling back fiscal stimulus.

After three years of strict Covid Zero restrictions, a crackdown on financial risk in the property market and targeting excessive growth of Internet platform companies, President Xi Jinping now appears to be loosening the reins.

Falling 0.1% month on month is a decent performance. The chinese have been pushing up the bubble where a Chinese household owns 2 or more homes or are buying home for their young children in anticipation that their life was hard. This has likely pushed home prices to double what it is worth now. I would have expected a bubble to burst where prices fall 1% month on month.

Hence, I think the chinese government is doing quite well to make the price fall until it is at a sustainble level relative to their worker's wages. Unfortunately, this is going to be a long process to equalise it

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