China Economic News

[opmi]

The headline is probably exaggerated and not indicative of base rates. But there is no denying that the Chinese market has been on a tear in the last 1-2 weeks, with the benchmark SSE having rose ~15% since start of July

‘No Way I Can Lose’: Inside China’s Stock-Market Frenzy

Like millions of amateur investors across China, Min Hang has become infatuated with the country’s surging stock market.

“There’s no way I can lose,” said the 36-year-old, who works at a technology startup and opened her first trading account in Beijing on Tuesday. “Right now, I’m feeling invincible.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ket-frenzy

best way to gain financial freedom is to ride a bubble.....and get out before the music stops....hopefully..

[Barefoot]

The headline is probably exaggerated and not indicative of base rates. But there is no denying that the Chinese market has been on a tear in the last 1-2 weeks, with the benchmark SSE having rose ~15% since start of July

‘No Way I Can Lose’: Inside China’s Stock-Market Frenzy

Like millions of amateur investors across China, Min Hang has become infatuated with the country’s surging stock market.

“There’s no way I can lose,” said the 36-year-old, who works at a technology startup and opened her first trading account in Beijing on Tuesday. “Right now, I’m feeling invincible.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ket-frenzy

In one of my 1-2 years old thread, I have briefly stated the view that a general bull market may be ripe in China stocks market 1-2 years later which is where we are today. However, I still think that it is abit early. Probably, next year will be a better time. For second half of this year, I think there will be a sector bull market which I already started a thread.

[dreamybear]

I thought the section on "Do you think relations between China and the U.S. would improve under the Biden administration?" may be of interest to buddies here.

Kishore Mahbubani's interview with Mothership
https://mothership.sg/2021/01/kishore-ma...ina-biden/

Separately, I guess this is one of the type of risks we hv to factor in ....
-----------------------------------------------
Bribes, fake factories and forged documents: the buccaneering consultants pervading China’s factory audits
- A perfect storm of quick-fire, one-off factory inspections and insatiable Western demand for cheap goods is leading to fraud among Chinese manufacturers
- Cottage industry of consultants has popped up in China, helping low-end factories meet high-end Western standards, for a cost
Published: 7:00am, 22 Jan, 2021
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econo...ccaneering

[weijian]

Chinese microlending is getting weird and dangerous

Now, Xu owes money to eight microlenders, five of which are household names in Chinese tech: Alipay, WeChat, Meituan, 360 and Xiaomi. These days, seemingly every Chinese app, whatever its original purpose, also pushes to lend users money. "Weibo tells me it can lend me money; the delivery app tells me it can lend me money; and now even the photo editing app tells me it can lend me money," wrote one Weibo user last month. "I have 32 apps on my phone. Probably 30 of them have turned into microlending apps."

https://www.protocol.com/china/chinese-m...of-control

[weijian]

After the ATH in ~Feb2021, it is probable that many folks are licking their wounds at the end of the year. There is opportunity where ever risk is. Value investors love to start bottom up for most companies or sectors, but it feels like the approach towards Chinese companies need to first start from top-down.

The unsung winners and biggest losers of China's rocky markets in 2021

In a year that's seen China's "common prosperity" agenda roil global equity markets, the nation's policies also created a greater divide between stock winners and losers at home.

Policy direction looks set to drive market sentiment in 2022 as well, with a twice-a-decade party congress that could extend President Xi Jinping's term.

Jolted by Beijing's regulatory onslaught, education names such as Gaotu Techedu and property developers like China Evergrande Group are at the bottom of the MSCI China Index, which has plunged 25 per cent in 2021. Giving them company, not surprisingly, are some of the nation's tech titans that saw their value diminish in the world's biggest stock rout.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/...ts-in-2021

[CY09]

Hi Weijian,

That is a good point you made. Fishing in China markets should start from top down and not at the company or industry level. There is a need to understand what the incumbent government is planning to do and what it must do to prevent the collapse of a country. The financials of its GLCs and private companies are not of concern to them. If GLCs underperform or kaput, they will be supported and evolve to be zombie companies. If private companies speak out against the government or go into the "bad books" of policy makers (such as their tuition industry), the market value of these companies can be wiped out.

This is the difficulty in investing in a free market in a communist country.

[weijian]

Not just retailers failing to adapt, we can argue that tech companies like Ebay failed to adapt too.

American Companies That Failed in China

The reasons for why these companies withdrew are surprisingly similar, and can be broken down into two broad categories.

Retailers Fail to Adapt

Tech Firms Clash with Regulators

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/america...-in-china/

[dreamybear]

For buddies vested in China, I think it is worth reading the govt work report (especially on the policy orientation 2022) and contemplate how it may affect your investments(current / potential). 

Since the tech stocks' threads are so popular, buddies may find this interesting "....We will encourage large platform enterprises to lower service fees and lighten the burden on small and medium businesses...."

-------------------------

Full Text: Report on the Work of the Government
BEIJING — The following is the full text of the Government Work rReport delivered by Premier Li Keqiang at the fifth session of the 13th National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China on March 5, and adopted on March 11.
http://english.www.gov.cn/premier/news/2...a68ff.html

[Behappyalways]

疫情衝擊! 中國大陸全國超2千快遞站停發 物流卡關｜方念華｜FOCUS全球新聞 20220330
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_UrN6Q91RY

[dreamybear]

Since the tech stocks' threads are so popular, buddies may find this interesting "....We will encourage large platform enterprises to lower service fees and lighten the burden on small and medium businesses...."

It seems the "burden" on small retailers is faced by both Chinese(e.g. with Alibaba) and non-Chinese(e.g. with Etsy) alike. I think credit should be given to the Chinese govt for recognizing and looking into this issue, presumably earlier than the rest ?

With regards to the The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) issue, I think the issue will continue to drag on.

------------------------
‘Bleed us dry’: Why tech platforms are facing rebellions
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/garage/...rebellions

JD.com, Pinduoduo among 80 Chinese companies added to list of firms facing delisting in US
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/co...ting-in-us

https://www.sec.gov/hfcaa